Demian Maia vs Dan Miller
Middleweight submission specialists while collide when Maia (11-1-0) and Miller (11-2-0, 1 NC) both look to rebound from tough losses to fellow UFC 109 participants Nate Marquardt and Chael Sonnen, respectively.
Maia was on the fast track to a title shot against Anderson Silva until he ran into the fist of Marquardt at UFC 102. Knocked out in just 21 seconds, Maia quickly realised that he had to work even more diligently on his striking and he has since trained with some of the top Brazilian stars in the sport. Whether he will need to stand and strike in this fight remains to be seen.
Miller captured the IFL Middleweight Championship shortly before the promotion closed in 2008 and he was victorious in each of his first three UFC outings. A lopsided decision loss to Sonnen removed Miller from the immediate title picture for the time being, but an impressive victory over Maia would vault him right back among the list of top contenders.
Miller has never been stopped in his career and he will have an advantage if the fight remains on the feet. However, Maia is one of the best submission fighters in all of mixed martial arts and Miller will need to be wary of taking the fight to the ground where he normally excels. One fighter will make a mistake and the other will capitalise and finish the fight. Here, it will be Maia coming out on top.
Prediction:
Maia by Submission in round two.
Matt “The Terror” Serra vs Frank “Twinkle Toes” Trigg
In a loser leaves town welterweight matchup, former champion Serra (9-6-0) and two-time title challenger Trigg (19-7-0) will go to war in hopes of making one final run at the UFC Welterweight Championship.
Serra has his back up against the wall after two straight losses, though he was arguably robbed in the judges’ decision against Matt Hughes at UFC 98. Prior to that, Serra had split a pair of fights with champion Georges “Rush” St. Pierre that saw Serra first capture the 170-pound title and then lose it again one year later.
Trigg was brought back into the UFC for a final shot at capturing the one major title that has eluded him, but he was quickly defeated by Josh Koscheck at UFC 103. The former ICON Sport Middleweight Champion had previously won six of seven fights, but the crushing loss to Koscheck was a devastating blow to Trigg’s career.
With both fighters having everything to lose, this is likely to be one of the best fights of the night and both will be looking to show that they still belong among the elite in the UFC. Trigg’s best chance is to keep the fight on the ground and avoid Serra’s submissions. However, Serra has very heavy hands and can end the fight at any time. He will do so tonight.
Prediction:
Serra by TKO in round two.
Mac Danzig vs Justin Buchholz
In a second loser leaves town match, lightweights Mac Danzig (18-7-1) and Justin Buchholz (8-4-0) face off to determine which one will remain in the UFC in a pivotal bout.
Danzig won 16 of his first 19 fights, but has won just twice in his last seven outings. Currently in the midst of a three-fight losing streak, the TUF Season 6 winner has publicly stated that he will voluntarily leave the UFC if he is unable to defeat Buchholz. Danzig has switched training camps and will revert back to his formerly ultra-aggressive style.
Buchholz competed for a variety of well-known promotions before making his UFC debut with a 7-1 record in early 2008. He has won just once in four appearances inside the Octagon and a third straight loss will certainly send him packing. Buchholz has never been to a decision in his career and possesses good submission skills and solid punching power.
While both fighters have their backs up against the wall, Danzig has battled much tougher competition throughout his career than Buchholz. He is correct in stating that he does not belong in the UFC if he cannot defeat Buchholz, but that will not be a problem here. Danzig is the superior fighter and, barring a monumental mistake, should have little trouble in dispatching of his opponent.
Prediction:
Danzig by Submission late in round one.
Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard vs Ronys Torres
In a lightweight bout that is sure to produce fireworks, Guillard (22-8-2, 1 NC) will look to get back on the winning track when he faces UFC debutant Torres (14-1-0).
Guillard has met with mixed success during his lengthy UFC tenure. The heavy-handed striker sports a 5-4 record inside the Octagon since debuting for the promotion in 2005. He holds 13 wins by a form of knockout and is one of the most explosive strikers in the division, but submission defence has consistently been Guillard’s downfall.
While Torres remains an unknown to casual fans, he has emerged as one of the top prospects in Brazil. Having only gone to a decision twice, Torres is a proven finisher and holds a near-equal number of wins by knockout and submission. Torres submitted PRIDE veteran Luiz Azeredo last year and he will make his UFC debut against Guillard tonight.
If Torres is able to take the fight with Guillard to the mat, the finish is academic and he should have little trouble submitting his brash foe. However, Torres’s lone defeat came by 20-second knockout and that is exactly Guillard’s specialty. Torres has not competed in over 16 months and that will play a factor here.
Prediction:
Guillard by KO in round one.