UFC 95 Predictions
by Robert Sargent
With the Ultimate Fighting Championship's latest foray into London, England just one day away, MMARising.com looks over the intriguing UFC 95 card, which sees Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez facing Joe "Daddy" Stevenson in the night's main event.
Other bouts include a potential slugfest between Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy and Rory Markham, and a middleweight contender fight between Nate Marquardt and Wilson Gouveia.
The main event of the evening pits Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez against former title challenger Joe "Daddy" Stevenson, in Sanchez's lightweight debut.
This is widely regarded as a gimme fight for Sanchez, and that is how it should play out, but there is always a chance that Stevenson can lock on his one-trick guillotine choke and secure a victory. That said, it is unlikely that he will be able to do so, as Sanchez is on another level from Stevenson's past submission victims.
For Stevenson, this is really a must-win situation, though the UFC likely won't cut him if he loses because he is a former TUF winner. Stevenson has lost two of his last three fights, and looked awful in his lone win over Gleison Tibau at UFC 86, so it would be more than reasonable if he was sent back to the minor leagues should Sanchez defeat him.
Stevenson's problem in this fight is that he has no chance of winning unless he can trap Sanchez in a choke. Sanchez is a better striker, has a better ground game - especially from the top - and has never been finished in any of his fights. Further, Sanchez has won two straight fights and is in a much better state of mind than Stevenson.
While a Stevenson guillotine choke would surprise no one, his extremely one-dimensional game has run its course. This will be the last time that Stevenson is ever in contention for a UFC title. Prediction: Sanchez by TKO in round two.
The co-main event of the evening pits rising British star Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy against heavy-hitting striker Rory Markham, in a fight that could vault the winner into future title contention.
Hardy has a very solid ground game, but it is unlikely to be shown in this fight. Markham has teased that Hardy has no punching power, so Hardy will look to prove him wrong. As a result, this will quickly turn into a slugfest, which is actually bad for Markham.
Though Markham is one of the most aggressive and skilled strikers in the welterweight division, his chin is not up to the level that is required for the brawls that he gets into. He has been knocked out by lesser competition before, and had to come from behind to defeat Brodie Farber in his UFC debut. He will rush in and get reckless, which will lead to a counter from Hardy that ends Markham's night.
Hardy's victory here will solidify his spot among the contenders in the highly competitive welterweight division. Another impressive win after this should ensure a title shot. Prediction: Hardy by KO in round one.
The third fight on the card is another contender's bout, as middleweight stars Nate "The Great" Marquardt and Wilson Gouveia square off to determine who takes one step closer to a shot at Anderson Silva.
Often regarded as the "best fighter" in American Top Team, Gouveia has done little to live up to this hype so far, which has frustrated even his trainers. His comeback win over Jason Lambert and TKO victory over Jason MacDonald were both steps in the right direction, but Gouveia has lost too many fights that should have been easy wins.
Marquardt is by no means an easy victory for anyone, but this is Gouveia's fight to lose. If he comes out aggressively and lands combinations early on, he can knock Marquardt out. If he doesn't, and the fight goes long, Marquardt can win by whatever he wants as Gouveia gasps for air.
Unfortunately for Gouveia, Marquardt is on a fast-track back to a title shot and should be able to avoid his early striking power. He'll take Gouveia down at will and eventually finish him with strikes. Gouveia's loss will all but ensure that his status will never surpass that of gatekeeper. Prediction: Marquardt by TKO late in round two.
The next fight has the most title implications of any on the card, as Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu wizard Demian Maia takes on the final WEC Middleweight Champion - at least, in practice - Chael Sonnen, in a fight that could set Maia as the next UFC Middleweight title challenger if he is victorious.
Sonnen is still unknown to many fans in North America, but he is one of the most talented wrestlers in the middleweight division and possesses very good striking as well. However, this fight is simply too much for him. Unless Sonnen can score a quick knockout victory, Maia will find a way to get the fight to the ground and secure a submission.
Maia is widely regarded as the absolute best submission fighter in all of MMA for a reason, and a victory here over Sonnen will put him next in line to face Anderson Silva. He has all of the tools to defeat Silva, and this will be the first step towards achieving that. Prediction: Maia by Submission in round one.
The final main card fight pits welterweight star Josh Koscheck against undefeated UFC debutant Paulo Thiago.
Koscheck is supposed to win this fight, but he won't. He has grossly underestimated the skill that Thiago possesses, and that will be his downfall. Thiago is extremely good on the ground, but Koscheck's wrestling should be enough to keep the fight on the feet. However, Koscheck's quest to get back in the title hunt will come to a screeching halt at the hands of Thiago.
Though Koscheck's striking is much improved, Thiago's chin is granite and he will be able to withstand the haymakers that Koscheck throws his way. No one will expect Koscheck to get knocked out, but that is what will happen. Thiago will make an immediate impact in the division by flooring Koscheck with a punch or kick that nobody sees coming. Prediction: Thiago by KO late in round one.
The first undercard fight features England's own Terry Etim taking on former Palace Fighting Championships titleholder Brain "The Bandit" Cobb in a lightweight contest.
Cobb is a talented fighter who has won nine straight fights, with most coming by way of submission. Etim also prefers to keep the fight on the ground, but he has shown considerably improved striking in recent fights.
This fight is Etim's for the taking, and he will not disappoint in front of his hometown crowd. After early striking exchanges, Etim will take the fight to the ground and score an impressive submission, which will allow him the opportunity to continue to climb the ranks in the UFC. Prediction: Etim by Submission in round one.
The next fight is a heavyweight tilt between breakout star Junior "Cigano" dos Santos and Dutch giant Stefan "Skyscraper" Struve.
Struve is a ridiculous 6'11" in height, which puts him among the tallest athletes in mixed martial arts, but he is lanky and lacks the muscle mass of other giants in the sport. Dos Santos is coming off of one of the biggest upsets in recent years, when he knocked out top-ranked heavyweight Fabricio Werdum.
This fight will be similar to the bout with Werdum, but will end more quickly. Struve is a talented fighter, but no match for the punching power of dos Santos. Prediction: Dos Santos by KO in round one.
Next up is another heavyweight battle, as former IFL light heavyweight star Mike Ciesnolevicz moves up a weight class for his UFC debut against English striking sensation Neil "Goliath" Grove.
This fight is not making it out of the first round. That much is painfully clear. Grove has more than enough power to knock out the much smaller Ciesnolevicz, but the former IFL star could secure a victory if he can take the fight to the mat.
Ciesnolevicz has been knocked out before, by opponents who have nowhere near the striking power of Grove, but he is an intelligent fighter and will find a way to pull off an upset here. Prediction: Ciesnolevicz by Submission in round one.
The next fight is a lightweight bout between Sweden's Per Eklund and the debuting Evan Dunham.
Dunham is undefeated, and that will remain unchanged after this fight. Eklund has the potential to be a great fighter, but falls short when he takes a step up in competition. Though Dunham is a relative unknown, he will get the better of Eklund.
Eklund will put on an impressive performance in the opening minutes, but Dunham will catch him off-guard and finish the fight soon after. Whether Dunham will ever be a contender remains to be seen, but this will be his first UFC victory. Prediction: Dunham by KO in round one.
The final fight of the evening is a welterweight bout between England's Paul "Tellys" Kelly and BJ Penn training partner Troy "Rude Boy" Mandaloniz.
Mandaloniz is returning to competition after more than a year away from the sport, and Kelly is not the person to be fighting after such a long layoff. Kelly's ground control will be enough to overcome Mandaloniz's submission prowess, and Mandaloniz will likely be sent packing after a lopsided defeat. Kelly has talked about dropping to lightweight in the future, but he still has one welterweight win left in him. Prediction: Kelly by TKO in round two.
While it may lack the big-name power of events held in North America, UFC 95 is poised to be one of the better events of 2009, and all of the main card fights have the potential to determine future challengers for many of the promotion's titles.
