UFC 94 Predictions
by Robert Sargent
UFC 94 airs live tomorrow night from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, and MMARising.com looks over the card, which is headlined by one of the most highly anticipated rematches in UFC history, when Georges St. Pierre faces BJ Penn once again.
Also on the main card, undefeated Brazilian standouts Lyoto Machida and Thiago Silva will battle to determine which fighter will move into title contention and which will first taste defeat.
Beginning with the highly-anticipated main event, the UFC Welterweight Championship will be on the line as UFC Welterweight Champion Georges "Rush" St. Pierre faces UFC Lightweight Champion "The Prodigy" BJ Penn in a rematch of their hotly-contested UFC 58 Split Decision, which went in St. Pierre's favour.
This is one of the most difficult fights to predict in recent years, as both have been dominant fighters throughout their careers and Penn has rededicated himself to training in order to reclaim the accolades he possessed early in his UFC tenure. St. Pierre has run through the UFC's welterweight division, while Penn has thus far dominated the lacklustre UFC lightweights and looks to become the first man to hold two different UFC titles at the same time.
What this fight comes down to is mental strength. Penn is adamant that he has prepared like no other for this fight and will push St. Pierre to his limits. St. Pierre, renowned as quite possibly the single most dedicated fighter in the sport, always comes in shape for every fight and will be looking to prove that his first victory over Penn was no fluke.
St. Pierre will likely look for takedowns early on, and this will be Penn's best chance. If he can use his flexibility to trap St. Pierre in a submission, he can finish the fight quickly. Failing this, he can try to reverse position and score a TKO stoppage. However, if the fight goes beyond round two, Penn's chances for victory are slim to none.
While this is really too close to call, St. Pierre holds significant advantages in strength, size, stamina and heart. Penn arguably makes up for this with raw talent, but this is St. Pierre's time to shine. It's unlikely that he will stop Penn, but St. Pierre will do enough to take a decision on the judges' scorecards. Prediction: St. Pierre by Unanimous Decision.
The next bout on the card is also a highly anticipated one, as undefeated Brazilians Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida and Thiago Silva square off to determine who will move in line for a future UFC Light Heavyweight title shot.
Thus far, nobody has been able to do anything to Machida, save for a last-ditch desperation triangle choke from Tito Ortiz on his way out of the UFC. Machida makes his opponents - many of whom are elite-level fighters - look like amateurs by evading their strikes and picking them apart.
Silva, however, is one of the most aggressive fighters in the UFC and might finally prove to be the challenge that Machida needs. Whether Silva can land the vicious strikes that he is famous for remains to be seen, though.
Machida has recently tried to make an effort to fight more offensively than defensively, and he will try to push the pace more in this fight. Silva's chin doesn't seem to be the best, and Machida could very well knock Silva down or out, but the most likely result of this bout is Machida taking a hard-fought and well-deserved decision win. He will be UFC Light Heavyweight Champion before the end of 2009. Prediction: Machida by Unanimous Decision.
The next fight is another light heavyweight contest, as highly-touted prospect Jon "Bones" Jones takes on The Ultimate Fighter Season One Runner-Up "The American Psycho" Stephan Bonnar.
On paper, Bonnar's wealth of experience will dictate this fight and he will pick up a quick victory. In reality, however, Jones has some of the most varied and unorthodoxed striking in MMA, and he looked very impressive in his UFC debut against former IFL star Andre Gusmao.
Bonnar is well known for his ability to take obscene amounts of punishment, but Jones's power could result in the first true stoppage loss in Bonnar's career, aside from his defeat via cut to Lyoto Machida in 2003.
While Jones hits hard and is one of the top young prospects in the UFC, Bonnar won't be stopped in this fight and will at least survive until a decision. If he can get Jones down, look for Bonnar to lock on a submission. Whether he can get the fight there is anyone's guess, but I don't like his chances. Prediction: Jones by Unanimous Decision.
Next up is a welterweight battle of Judo practitioners, as undefeated Korean star Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim takes on former top contender Karo "The Heat" Parisyan, who has looked positively dreadful in his last three fights.
This is another fight that will be decided on stamina and mental toughness. Parisyan is one of the weakest mental fighters in the sport, from his panic attacks to his last-second injuries that have twice cost him high-profile fights (including a title shot). He looked sluggish against Josh Burkman, absolutely terrible against Ryo Chonan and was blitzed by Thiago Alves. Still, despite ditching his fight with Yoshiyuki Yoshida on a few hours' notice last year, the UFC has brought him back again.
Long regarded as the top Judo fighter in the UFC, Parisyan finds himself outmatched by Kim, whose skills in Judo actually surpass those of Parisyan. Kim will come out aggressively in this fight, as he seems to do in every fight, and will seek a quick stoppage win. If the fight goes long, however, he has shown a tendency to tire and fatigue badly. That is really Parisyan's only hope, and could lead him to a close (likely Split) decision win.
As long as Kim can keep his cardio up, this is his fight to lose. Parisyan should be sent packing from the UFC, as he clearly has some soul searching to do before he will ever be anywhere near title contention in the UFC again. Prediction: Kim by TKO in round one.
The final main card fight is a battle between young guns, as The Ultimate Fighter Season Five Winner Nate Diaz takes on the ultra-aggressive Clay "The Carpenter" Guida.
Diaz has thus far made a UFC career out of losing fights early on and pulling off amazing comebacks or submissions to win fights that he seemed destined to lose. This could very well prove to be another case of that, as Guida's aggressive style will pose many problems for Diaz in the early goings, but he can look for submissions in the later rounds that might spell doom for Guida.
For Guida's part, he must never let Diaz have time to rest, and must use takedowns and ground control to prevent Diaz from setting up any submissions. Guida has already wreaked havoc on other submission wizards like Marcus Aurelio, and he'll need to do the same against Diaz or he'll find himself on the wrong end of a triangle or an armbar.
If Guida can survive the submission attempts from Diaz, he will win this fight. Diaz's craftiness is not to be taken lightly, however, and Guida may very well turn into yet another stepping stone in Diaz's rise to prominence. I see this going to the judges, and since every fight Guida's in seems to have judging controversy, this will be no different. Prediction: Guida by Split Decision.
The first undercard fight, which should unquestionably be on the main card, pits former #1 contender Jon Fitch against "The Japanese Sensation" Akihiro Gono in a welterweight clash.
First of all, the fact that this fight isn't on the main card telecast is absolutely pathetic, and stems from a business disagreement between Fitch's American Kickboxing Academy team and UFC President Dana White over licensing issues. Fitch last competed for the UFC Welterweight Championship and put on a gritty performance in defeat, yet is now relegated to the undercard in a fight with one of the most famous Japanese competitors in mixed martial arts. The logic behind this is questionable, at best.
Having said that, this fight has endless potential. While Fitch is an extremely dominant wrestler, Gono has made a career out of fighting intelligent battles and using crafty techniques to score wins. For further evidence, refer to his armbars of reigning DREAM Middleweight Champion Gegard Mousasi or UFC contender Tamdan McCrory. He'll need every bit of that against Fitch, who was unstoppable in the UFC until he met the freight train that is Georges St. Pierre.
Fitch will score many takedowns in this fight. That is a given. Whether Gono can counter this with submissions from his back will determine the winner of this contest. For Gono's sake, one can hope that the charismatic and flamboyant star from Japan will put on a good showing in this fight, but this looks like Fitch's first step back into title contention. Prediction: Fitch by Unanimous Decision.
Next is a lightweight contest between two fighters who desperately need wins, as TUF Season Five Runner-Up Manny "The Anvil" Gamburyan meets one-time rising star Thiago Tavares.
Tavares needs to win this fight or he's gone from the UFC. Period. Once thought of as the next big thing in the lightweight division, a devastating knockout loss to Matt Wiman and lacklustre performances against Michihiro Omigawa and Kurt Pellegrino have left Tavares on the chopping block.
Gamburyan, widely expected to coast to victory on Season Five of The Ultimate Fighter, instead met with defeat after suffering a shoulder injury. Since then, he has destroyed Nate Mohr and Jeff Cox, but was then brutally knocked out in just 12 seconds by Rob Emerson. With a loss in this fight, Gamburyan could also find himself on the outside of the UFC.
This fight will come down to whose chin is better, as both fighters hit hard even though they are known for their submission skills. If both can survive until a decision, the fight's outcome could go either way. If it doesn't go to the judges, someone is getting knocked out. With desperation on his side, Tavares will redeem himself in this fight. Prediction: Tavares by TKO in round two.
Moving along, we have a welterweight contest between former IFL and SportFight upset king Chris "The Professor" Wilson and UFC newcomer John "Doomsday" Howard.
Wilson has thus far failed to live up to the potential which he established in the IFL and SportFight during his UFC tenure. After scoring upset wins over current MFC Welterweight Champion Pat Healy, final IFL Welterweight Champion Jay Hieron, current UFC contender Rory Markham and current MFC Lightweight title challenger Derrick Noble, big things were expected from Wilson. Instead, he lost a hard-fought decision in his UFC debut against Jon Fitch and looked less than stellar against an overmatched Steve Bruno at UFC 87.
Howard is making his UFC debut, but brings considerable experience and a well-rounded skill set. If Wilson takes him lightly or does not come into the fight with the same intensity that scored him those four big upset wins, it will be Wilson who finds himself on the wrong end of a fight he should handily win.
This is likely Wilson's last chance to prove that he can be a legitimate contender in the UFC's welterweight division, and he won't disappoint this time. Look for a submission late in round one after Wilson drops Howard with punches. Prediction: Wilson by Submission in round one.
The next bout is a heavyweight tilt between former rising star "Irish" Jake O'Brien and "The Hungarian Nightmare" Christian Wellisch, who might soon be having his own nightmares from outside of the Octagon.
O'Brien is a very skilled wrestler, but that's about it. Wellisch is more well-rounded, but falls short each time he's put against a legitimate threat and was completely destroyed by Shane Carwin at UFC 84.
This fight likely isn't going to be an entertaining one, and will probably see O'Brien employing his usual tactics of lay and pray to gain a decision win that leaves most of the crowd in a deep sleep. Wellisch's only real chance is to land a haymaker early on that knocks O'Brien out, but it's doubtful that Wellisch can stop O'Brien's takedowns. Prediction: O'Brien by Unanimous Decision.
The final fight is a meaningless welterweight contest between Matt "No Regard" Arroyo and the debuting Dan Cramer, in a bout that is little more than a show fight for Cramer, who is making his UFC and MMA debut.
Arroyo is actually a well-rounded fighter who could have potential, but he's already been knocked out twice by Matt Brown, who, himself, is well below gatekeeper status. Unless Arroyo wins this fight in convincing or dramatic fashion, this will be the last time he ever steps foot in the Octagon.
Cramer competed on Season Seven of The Ultimate Fighter, but has battled injuries since the show and is just now finally making his professional mixed martial arts debut. Though he was unsuccessful on the show, he will be too much for Arroyo to handle. Whether Cramer ever makes any sort of impact in the UFC, however, is doubtful. Prediction: Cramer by TKO in round two.
While the final two fights of the evening are much more intriguing than most of the rest of the card, the St. Pierre vs Penn fight ensures that there will be considerable interest in the outcome of UFC 94, which could prove to be the UFC's most successful event to date.
