UFC 92 Predictions
by Robert Sargent & Daniel Regan
As time ticks down until the UFC's best card of the year at UFC 92: "The Ultimate 2008," MMARising.com breaks down the card, which features two title fights and the third battle between former champions Wanderlei Silva and Quinton Jackson.
In title fights, Forrest Griffin will defend the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship against "Sugar" Rashad Evans, while Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira faces Frank Mir.
Rob: Beginning with the so-called "main event" of the evening, we have a battle of TUF Season winners as Forrest Griffin defends the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship that he really does not deserve to hold against the guy who just knocked out Chuck Liddell, "Sugar" Rashad Evans.
Daniel: You know, Forrest is an interesting character. He lacks talent, skill, a strong chin and natural ability, but he does make up for it in sheer heart. I was irate when he won an "unjust" decision over Rampage, but I am going to back him up here. While he fought an INCREDIBLY close fight with Rampage for 5 rounds, Rashad ran around in circles for 6-7 minutes before landing a lucky punch. Forrest should just be too physically imposing for the destined-to-be gatekeeper, Rashad.
Rob: I have to disagree here, though I concede that Forrest Griffin does have tremendous heart and determination. Rashad's camp at the Greg Jackson Academy is on one of the biggest roles in MMA history, and it's because Jackson crafts excellent strategies for his fighters. If this fight goes long, it will probably favour Forrest, but I think that Rashad will be able to bypass Forrest's kicks (and takedowns, if he tries) and will score a knockout in round two or three. Prediction: Evans by TKO in round two or three.
Daniel: Forrest is too much for "Sugar." Prediction: Griffin by TKO in round three.
Rob: The next fight is at least more worthy of main event status, as former RINGS and PRIDE Heavyweight Champion, and current UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira takes on one-time UFC Heavyweight Champion Frank Mir.
Daniel: You made a mistake, let me correct you. This is for the real UFC Heavyweight Championship. Just because Couture ran from Nogueira, does not mean that Lesnar is champ. Now...honestly, while Mir might be highly motivated, Nog is Nog. He wins his fights on one thing alone: heart. If you could combine Wanderlei and Forrest's hearts at the same time, you might begin to understand the level of Noguiera's spirit.
Rob: You're right that this should be for the true UFC Heavyweight Championship, but Mir really has no business getting any title shots when he's beaten gatekeeper Antoni Hardonk and a then 1-0 Brock Lesnar to get it. That's not to say that Mir has no chance in this fight, because he could certainly pull off some sort of monumental upset, but let's face facts. Nogueira's striking is excellent, while Mir's is questionable. Mir's submission game is superb, but Nogueira's is better. Mir's chin is weak, while Nogueira's is inhumanly strong. Prediction: Nogueira by stoppage - TKO or submission - in round two.
Daniel: I see it getting off to a slow start, but Nog being efficient and winning the fight decisively with something in the 4th. Prediction: Nogueira by stoppage (submission or TKO) in round four.
Rob: The next fight is the third fight in a trilogy - sort of - between former long-time PRIDE Middleweight Champion Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva and former UFC Undisputed Light Heavyweight Champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson.
Daniel: Stop everything. This is Mixed Martial Arts here. There is absolutely nothing like this in the sport. To see these two fight is the most pure form of mixed martial arts to ever exist. This is what makes me love this sport and, just like I did in 2003 when these two first clashed, and repeated in 2004, I am going to be solely behind my man, Wanderlei Silva. The intensity and heart that he brings to the ring is unparalleled. Jackson, who is a very "mental" fighter, is going through the worst period of his career. He's facing jail time for several felonies, he thought he was God, he left his former trainer and he's training at a poor camp, in Wolfslair. Everything spells disaster for Rampage, but don't count him out completely. This will be a fight spoken about for years to come. It is my opinion that Wanderlei vs Rampage II was the greatest fight in MMA history.
Rob: I don't know if I would put their fights at the very top of my list, but they are both very close. What makes this intriguing, even though Wanderlei won both of the first two fights, is that Rampage was dominating significant portions of both fights (and essentially all of the second one). However, as much as I like Rampage and hope that he finds continued success in his career, this is Wanderlei Silva's time to shine. He is one major victory away from a title shot, and I see him dethroning the winner of Griffin/Evans if he gets that chance. Rampage desperately needs to keep this fight on the ground, but it can't stay there forever. Prediction: Silva by KO in round two.
Daniel: I predict a knockout victory late in the third round from Wanderlei, but a decision is not out of the question. Prediction: Silva by KO in round three.
Rob: The next fight features a middleweight clash between CB "The Doberman" Dollaway and "The Master of Disaster" Mike Massenzio.
Daniel: Who? I repeat, who? Isn't CB the guy to lose twice on The Ultimate Fighter? Okay, he's a good prospect but please...throw this to the undercard and bring on Okami vs Lister.
Rob: Yeah, I'm trying to figure out how submitting a UFC castaway (Jesse Taylor) with a Peruvian Necktie or submitting a guy with zero submission defence (Drew McFedries) earns either fighter a main card spot at the promotion's biggest event of the year. This should not be on the televised card, and the result is meaningless. Prediction: Dollaway by Submission in round one.
Daniel: Dollaway takes this. Prediction: Dollaway by TKO in round two.
Rob: The final televised bout is a heavyweight battle between Cheick Kongo and the debuting Mostapha al Turk.
Daniel: Looking for the upset here. It's an odd pick, I know, but I really think the imposing al Turk can upset Kongo. Kongo is really trying to break out of his gatekeeper status, but is having a hard time. After getting dominated in the wrestling world, he's fallen back on wrestling to try to prove that he can do it. However, it has been anything but pretty.
Rob: Even though al Turk's 6-3 record is hardly impressive, all six of his victories have come via first-round stoppage due to punches. Having said that, none of his victories in the Cage Rage promotion were at all notable, including his 2007 stoppage of once-invincible Mark "The Titan" Kerr, who is about six years past his prime. On the other hand, Kongo has never looked impressive in any of his fights and still has basically no ground game. Al Turk will pull off an upset here, though it's not really that much of one. Prediction: Al Turk by TKO in round one.
Daniel: I'm looking for al Turk to pull off the upset here. Prediction: Al Turk by TKO in round one.
Rob: The first undercard fight, which should undoubtedly be on the main card, pits former #1 middleweight contender Yushin "Thunder" Okami against submission specialist Dean "The Boogeyman" Lister.
Daniel: Okami is the UFC's red-headed step-child. If they could, they'd beat him every time he won a fight. Good thing "The Boogeyman" agreed to fight in Okami's bedroom, due to his grounding. That being said, Okami should finish this fight by dropping Lister and finishing him on the ground.
Rob: I hope that you are right here, for two reasons. First, if anyone is deserving of a title shot, it's Okami. DQ finish aside, he still holds the most recent victory over Anderson Silva. Secondly, Lister is one of the most boring fighters ever because he typically displays zero aggression and employs lay and pray tactics rather than actively looking for submissions. Maybe Cro Cop taught Lister a few punches, but I doubt it. Prediction: Okami by TKO in round one.
Daniel: Okami will be too much for Lister. Prediction: Okami by TKO in round two.
Rob: Next up is a heavyweight bout between Antoni Hardonk and the debuting Mike "The Juggernaut" Wessel.
Daniel: Hardonk is really due to learn something during his tenure in the UFC. He doesn't even pretend to have a ground game. He's the only guy I've seen who does not know how to do an armbar. My seven-year-old sister can do that. However, he's fighting Wessel on short notice and he is a devastating striker.
Rob: I'm always leery of debuting UFC fighters who have two back-to-back victories over the same guy. That generally signifies that they were looking to pad their records or couldn't find any competition. Against Hardonk, Wessel is vastly overmatched if he wants to keep the fight standing. Hardonk's leg kicks could probably take down some trees, if need be, and they'll wreak havoc on Wessel. Prediction: Hardonk by KO in round one.
Daniel: Wessel can't compete with Hardonk's striking. Prediction: Hardonk by TKO in round one.
Rob: Next is a light heavyweight bout between Matt "The Hammer" Hamill and Reese "Riptide" Andy.
Daniel: Hamill should run right through Reese Andy.
Rob: I'm trying to figure out where this "riptide" nickname came from, as Andy's style is among the least entertaining in UFC history. He'll need to catch a serious current if he's going to surpass the wrestling skill of Hamill. Unless Andy can pull off a submission, this is Hamill's to lose. Prediction: Hamill by Unanimous Decision.
Daniel: Someone will let Hamill know when he's declared the winner in round two. Prediction: Hamill by TKO in round two.
Rob: Moving on, we have a welterweight bout between former PRIDE contender Ryo "The Piranha" Chonan and former IFL upset king "Bad" Brad Blackburn.
Daniel: Chonan, who is apparently broke, doesn't seem to be able to put anything together for himself, including a successful showing. That being said, he's being fed a free win...but this is of little importance, and so is Chonan for now.
Rob: On paper, Chonan should coast to victory here, but the reality is that Blackburn probably has the single most misleading record (12-9-1, 1 NC) in mixed martial arts. He's defeated Chris Wilson, Jay Hieron and Delson Heleno, and won his UFC debut with a flying knee. Chonan's chin has often been his downfall, and I fear that that will be the case here. As much as I want Chonan to win and find success, I think Blackburn will pull off another upset. Prediction: Blackburn by KO early in round one.
Daniel: Chonan needs the money more. Prediction: Chonan by Unanimous Decision.
Rob: The final fight of the night is a completely meaningless heavyweight bout between Dan "The Viking" Evensen and Pat "HD" Barry.
Daniel: Apparently Evensen lost to Dan Bobish and Christian Wellisch, so he must be awful.
Rob: Evensen has lost every time he's faced a reasonable opponent, and this will be no different. Barry just made his pro debut in May, and is already 3-0 with three quick knockout wins. Evensen is going to be stopped in spectacular fashion. Prediction: Barry by KO in round one.
Daniel: Barry via not having lost to Bobish. Prediction: Barry by TKO in round one.
Though the card is definitely top-heavy, UFC 92 is undoubtedly the best event that the UFC has put on in 2008, and features a trio of excellent fights to end the night.
