UFC 91 Predictions
by Robert Sargent
Just hours away, UFC 91 features mediocre and largely meaningless fights, but the event is capped off by a UFC Heavyweight Championship bout between Randy "The Natural" Couture and Brock Lesnar. MMARising.com breaks down the event's card.
A highlight of the main card is an interesting welterweight battle between young guns Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory and Dustin "McLovin" Hazelett, which should be excellent.
Beginning with the main event of UFC 91, we have a UFC Heavyweight Championship bout between UFC Hall of Famer and reigning champion, Randy "The Natural" Couture, and former professional wrestler, Brock Lesnar.
The fact that this fight is even taking place, at least at this stage in time, is nothing short of a farce. Lesnar, who is just 2-1 in his MMA career and did not look overly impressive in the latter half of his fight with Heath Herring, is being given a title shot because the UFC's heavyweight division is weak and in relative chaos.
Couture, while ever the underdog, is one of the more overrated fighters in the history of MMA, but one cannot deny his heart and intelligence. He has formulated game plans to defeat much larger and often more skilled fighters than himself, and he will need to fight a smart fight to beat the massive Lesnar.
Whether this fight holds any legitimacy is beside the point at this stage, as the fight is happening regardless, but a Lesnar championship win would be nothing short of a disgrace for the sport. In this case, even if he is 45 years old, the sentimental favourite has to be Couture. It's very probable that Lesnar will overwhelm him with strikes and become the new champion, but one must hope, for the sake of the sport, that Couture pulls off another miracle. Either way, neither Couture nor Lesnar are going to defeat Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Prediction: Couture by Unanimous Decision.
The next fight is a battle between the two most overrated lightweights in the UFC, as Kenny "KenFlo" Florian takes on Joe "Daddy" Stevenson.
Like the main event between Couture and Lesnar, the victor of this fight only gains so much, as neither Florian nor Stevenson have the slightest chance of dethroning UFC Lightweight Champion BJ Penn. For that matter, it's unlikely that either will ever be able to defeat UFC gatekeeper Sean Sherk. On that note, contrary to what the UFC marketing machine will have one believe, neither of these fighters have much of a future.
Both have recently looked to showcase their striking skills, which are not their best assets, so a win one way or the other by knockout isn't out of the question. However, with both fighters possessing decent skills on the ground, this fight will likely end with a submission. The question, then, is whether Florian can avoid Stevenson's one-trick guillotine choke, as that's Stevenson's only real chance in this fight unless he can score a knockout.
Personally, I could not care less who wins this fight, as long as they never capture a title in the UFC. Neither are skilled enough and both have vastly inflated outlooks on themselves and their careers. For the sake of picking someone, I'll hope that Florian pulls this out. At least he has more than one submission in his arsenal, but I still look forward to him losing in punishing fashion in the near future. Prediction: Florian by Submission in round two.
The next fight is yet another meaningless waste of airtime, as Gabriel "Napćo" Gonzaga faces UFC newcomer Josh "Heavy" Hendricks.
While Gonzaga has proven himself to be fairly useless beyond the eight-minute mark of a fight, it won't take him anywhere near that long to dispatch of Hendricks, who has not competed in a year. Hendricks has thus far come up short in every mid-level bout that he's competed in, and Gonzaga is a solid competitor until he grows tired.
Though Gonzaga's chances of ever capturing the UFC Heavyweight Championship are about as slim as it gets, Hendricks shouldn't pose any significant troubles for him and this one should be academic. Prediction: Gonzaga by TKO in round one.
Moving along, we finally have an interesting matchup, as middleweights Nate "Rock" Quarry and undefeated Demian Maia square off in a fight with potential future title implications.
Quarry gained a legion of fans - myself included - with his performance and entertaining interview following the "fight" with Kalib Starnes at UFC 83. As a result, he is likely to be the crowd favourite coming into this bout, and should truly be commended for perservering in the sport after a very, very serious back injury in 2006-2007. If he can keep this fight standing, he has a legitimate chance of scoring a knockout win.
However, Maia is arguably the top submission fighter in the UFC's middleweight division, and poses huge threats to anyone if he can get the fight to the ground. If Maia is able to score a takedown, Quarry will need to get back to his feet immediately or he will likely be tapping out within seconds. While the sentimental vote here goes to Quarry, Maia is one of the few remaining true threats to UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson "The Spider" Silva, and his charge towards the title likely won't end here. Prediction: Maia by Submission in round one.
The next fight has Fight of the Year potential all over it, as welterweight standouts Dustin "McLovin" Hazelett and Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory do battle.
Both of these young fighters have a world of potential, and could very easily contend for the UFC Welterweight Championship one day. Both have solid striking skills and both are wizards if the fight goes to the ground. This is one of the most difficult fights to call in recent UFC competition, as this is an incredibly even-matched bout.
If the fight remains on the feet, McCrory holds a slight edge and Hazelett's chin has shown shades of weakness in the past. By contrast, Hazelett is one of the best submission fighters in the UFC's welterweight division, and McCrory's lone loss was via submission against "The Japanese Sensation" Akihiro Gono. If Hazelett scores a takedown, he might be able to pull off a submission. Regardless, a very difficult fight to predict. Prediction: McCrory by TKO in round two.
The first undercard fight pits resident underperformer Jorge "JG" Gurgel against veteran journeyman Aaron Riley in a lightweight bout.
Riley makes his return to the UFC in this fight, and has already competed for other major promotions such as PRIDE, BodogFIGHT and the IFL. His main weakness in losses has been a vulnerability to being knocked out, of which he should have little fear against Gurgel. Despite his insistence to strike in nearly every fight, Gurgel's striking is still very poor and he needs to stick to his top-level jiu-jitsu.
This fight will be decided on which game plan Gurgel brings to the table. If he tries to strike with Riley, he'll be knocked out or beaten badly enough to lose a Unanimous Decision. If he takes Riley down, he'll likely be able to win with a submission or via decision. Riley is a 37-fight veteran who is very skilled at evading submissions, so this could finally be Gurgel's swan song in the UFC. It would be about time. Prediction: Riley by TKO in round two.
Next is another lightweight filler fight, as Jeremy "Lil' Heathen" Stephens faces UFC debutant Rafael dos Anjos.
Stephens has looked unimpressive when put against skilled competition, and dos Anjos possesses very solid submissions. With another Brazilian newcomer, Junior dos Santos at UFC 90, already making a big UFC impact, dos Anjos will do the same here. A win over Stephens may not be on the level of dos Santos's knockout of Fabricio Werdum, but Stephens is likely to be looking for a new employer after this one. Prediction: Dos Anjos by Submission in round one.
Moving on, we have another lightweight bout, as Alvin "Kid" Robinson takes on Mark Bocek in what is likely a Do or Die fight for UFC employment.
Robinson was supposed to be a major player in the UFC's lightweight division, and his victory over Jorge Gurgel was an impressive one, but losses to Kenny Florian and Nate Diaz derailed those plans. Similarly, Bocek was expected to do big things, but losses to standouts Frankie Edgar and Mac Danzig have left him on the brink of eviction.
What this fight likely boils down to is heart. Bocek's gritty performance against Danzig, and solid showing in defeat against Edgar, far outshine Robinson's lone UFC win. Bocek should be able to control this fight on the ground, where he'll score a submission win. Prediction: Bocek by Submission late in round one.
The final fight is a continuance of meaningless fights, as "The Immortal" Matt Brown takes on the competitor with the worst nickname in the UFC, Ryan "The Tank Engine" Thomas.
Brown looked much better than expected in his defeat to Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim, but the aftermath of the fight and the controversy from the crowd underscored that Brown was delusional. He clearly lost the fight to Kim and he does not belong in the UFC. For that matter, neither does Thomas, but a win here would keep him around for a bit. As much as it pains me to say this, I hope that "The Tank Engine" wins. Prediction: Thomas by Submission in round two.
Overall, UFC 91 is an extremely poor card, but the welterweight showdown between Hazelett and McCrory and the UFC Heavyweight Championship main event will hopefully salvage and otherwise forgettable event.
