UFC 90 Predictions
by Robert Sargent
Just one week removed from UFC 89, MMARising.com looks at this weekend's UFC 90 card, which is headlined by a UFC Middleweight Championship bout between champion Anderson "The Spider" Silva and challenger Patrick "The Predator" Côté.
Also on the card is a #1 contender's bout for the UFC Welterweight Championship, with Josh Koscheck stepping in on short notice to face knockout artist Thiago "Pitbull" Alves.
Beginning with the main event of the evening, we have what many believe will be just another lopsided contest, as UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson "The Spider" Silva defends his title against the resurgent Patrick "The Predator" Côté.
Unlike many others, however, I feel the need to pick an upset in this bout.
Silva's title reign thus far has been about as dominant as possible. He's easily defeated fighters who were supposed to give him endless problems. He even moved up in weight to 205 and dispatched of dangerous striker James "The Sandman" Irvin in one minute. Next to Fedor Emelianenko, Silva is about as unstoppable as anyone in mixed martial arts today. By all accounts, he is also one of the most personable and good-natured people outside of the cage, and has a huge fan following.
However, lengthy runs of success are always vulnerable to sudden falls from grace, and this is Côté's time. Though Silva is much more well-rounded than Côté is, and his striking is extremely technical, Côté's punching power far outshines that of Silva. We all remember 2007, also known as the MMA Year of the Upsets, when a series of shocking knockouts (and a few submissions, too) made picking a favourite in a fight nearly impossible.
EliteXC experienced their shock upset earlier this month. While this bout is certainly not going to kill the UFC, as Seth Petruzelli did for EliteXC, people are going to be speechless when Côté is the aggressor and lands a huge right hand that brings Silva's untouchable reign to a screeching halt.
Silva is heavily favoured coming into this bout, and a victory over the Canadian would be anything but surprising, but the UFC actually needs a Côté upset here, in order to breathe life back into a fairly one-dimensional division. Besides, even if Côté loses, he was never expected to win anyway. Prediction: Côté by KO late in round one.
Next on the main card is a welterweight #1 contender's bout between Brazilian star Thiago "Pitbull" Alves and late-replacement Josh Koscheck.
Koscheck comes into the fight on just two weeks' notice after Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez was forced to withdraw due to injury. Fortunately, this is a better fight anyway, and the fight that should have been scheduled in the first place.
Alves would have steamrolled Sanchez, but he's going to have all he can handle against Koscheck, whose incredible wrestling talents have nullified the offence of many opponents in the past. Koscheck will need to do more of the same if he wants to stop the meteoric rise of Alves.
If Alves can keep this fight standing, he will give Koscheck his first knockout loss, and likely in dramatic fashion. Alves's knees and punches have already finished Karo "The Heat" Parisyan and former long-time champion Matt Hughes. While Koscheck is far more agile and explosive than the aging Hughes, his chin is still relatively untested. Alves will look to change that. Koscheck, on the other hand, will need to score takedowns throughout the fight and maintain top control. However, Alves's takedown defence and ability to get back to his feet are vastly improved.
Alves has already cleared one major hurdle, and made weight for the fight. Come fight time, he clears the final hurdle on his path to a title shot by stopping Koscheck with a knee as Koscheck tries for a takedown. Prediction: Alves by TKO in round two.
The next fight is a lightweight bout between veteran Rich "No Love" Clementi and highly-touted prospect Gray "The Bully" Maynard.
Maynard has been tearing through his opponents since his hilarious self-knockout No Contest against Rob "The Saint" Emerson last June. His recent victory over the previously-undefeated Frank "The Answer" Edgar opened many eyes to the talents possessed by Maynard.
However, Clementi has seen it all before. Once relegated to gatekeeper status, and then evicted from the UFC, Clementi's move to lightweight has been the best thing to happen to his career in years. His jiu-jitsu skills surpass most of the rest of the 155-pound class, and he is not at all afraid of being taken down. Maynard's best offence, his ground and pound, will likely be nullified by the superior defence and submissions of Clementi.
Maynard may be one of the next big things in the lightweight division, but Clementi has nearly 50 fights and has already faced many "next big things" before. Like he has done in recent bouts with Anthony "Rumble" Johnson, "The Young Assassin" Melvin Guillard, Sam "Hands of Stone" Stout and Terry Etim, Clementi is once again going to shock the younger generation with an upset victory. Prediction: Clementi by Submission in round two.
Moving on, we have a heavyweight match between top star Fabricio "Vai Cavalo" Werdum and UFC newcomer Junior "Cigano" dos Santos.
This is a very dangerous fight for Werdum, who was slated to compete for the UFC Heavyweight Championship before Randy Couture's return to the UFC caused a quick change in plans. He now faces dos Santos, a UFC debutant with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Dos Santos has yet to have a fight leave the first round, with all wins by submission or TKO.
The likelihood of Werdum being submitted is minuscule, at best, as his ground wizardry is matched by extremely few fighters in any weight class. However, there is always the danger that a home-run punch can end the fight in shocking fashion, with dos Santos picking up the biggest win of his career.
Will that happen? Well, it better not. A rematch between Werdum and UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira would likely be the most competitive heavyweight bout that the UFC could put on at this point. The farce of Brock Lesnar or Frank Mir competing for the title in the near future is a sad sight to see. Prediction: Werdum by Submission in round one.
The final main card fight is a lightweight contest between former champion Sean "The Muscle Shark" Sherk and explosive rising star Tyson Griffin.
If Griffin is able to dictate the fight and keeps it standing, this could be a very entertaining bout. If Sherk can take him down repeatedly, this will be just like most of the other Sherk fights and fans will be jumping for the caffeine to keep themselves awake.
Sherk's style, while highly effective, is one of the most boring and disinteresting styles in MMA. His game plan, save for his failed attempt to box with BJ Penn, is always the same. He scores a takedown, passes guard and then does...nothing. Repeat for three or more rounds.
Griffin will not let Sherk do this. Griffin's takedown defence is solid, and he not only survived the wrestling and ground skills of superstar WEC Featherweight Champion Urijah Faber, he actually defeated Faber in the process. If Griffin can beat someone with the skills and explosivity of Faber, Sherk shouldn't be an issue. Prediction: Griffin by Unanimous Decision.
The first undercard fight is a middleweight bout pitting Thales Leites against hard-hitting striker Drew "The Massacre" McFedries.
Credit must be given to McFedries for stepping into this fight on very short notice, but he is vastly overmatched against Leites. Unless Leites tries to strike with McFedries for the duration of the fight, this should be an easy win for Leites.
Leites's submission game is among the best at 185, whereas McFedries has essentially zero submission defence and has been taken down fairly easily in the past. All that Leites needs to do is survive early haymakers from McFedries and take the fight to the mat. After that, it's academic. Prediction: Leites by Submission in round one.
Next is a lightweight contest between veteran star Spencer "The King" Fisher and newcomer Shannon Gugerty.
Fisher has been making a name for himself for years in the UFC, while Gugerty has toiled in the small Total Combat promotion since 2004. Gugerty does hold a win over former WEC contender Cub Swanson when both fighters made their professional debuts at Total Combat 4, but Gugerty lost a rematch to Swanson and has no other notable victories. His debut in the UFC was a success, however, as he submitted Dale Hartt at UFC Fight Night 14 in July.
Fisher is a far cry from the likes of Hartt, though. His punching power, striking technique and surprisingly good submission skills will be far, far too much for Gugerty to overcome. Only top-level wrestlers have been able to take Fisher down and keep him there, and Gugerty isn't at that point in his career. Barring an upset, this should be a cakewalk for Fisher. Prediction: Fisher by KO in round one.
Moving along, we reach an interesting middleweight matchup between a pair of former IFL Middleweight Champions, as Dan Miller takes on Matt "Suave" Horwich.
Bizarre as he may be, there aren't many nicer people in the sport than Horwich. However, nice only takes you so far. Miller will be looking to make a statement in this fight, reaffirming that his title reign in the IFL, prior to its demise, would have been a lengthy one.
Both fighters are extremely skilled on the ground, so this is likely to end quickly with a submission. Miller made short work of former IFL Middleweight Champion Ryan McGivern, while Horwich lost to McGivern twice, and lost his belt the second time. If that is any indication, Miller should have the edge here. However, Horwich has been counted out numerous times before and has shocked the audience - most notably by knocking out Benji "Razor" Radach in the IFL - with unimaginable victories.
Though Horwich has a significant experience edge, Miller's aggression will dictate this fight and he will be the one emerging with the win. Prediction: Miller by Submission in round two.
Next is a lightweight grudge match between former Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu teacher Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio and his one-time student Hermes Franca.
Sadly, this fight would have been much more compelling had it happened two years ago. Aurelio had just submitted #1-ranked lightweight Takanori Gomi, with ease, while Franca had just submitted Nate Diaz and current WEC Lightweight Champion Jamie Varner. However, Aurelio has since struggled in the UFC, and Franca lost a title fight to Sean Sherk and was then suspended for testing positive for banned substances.
Rather than being at the top of their games, both fighters are now desperate for a dominating victory. Fans can hope that this means that the fight will be an exciting one. Though Aurelio is unlikely to pull off a submission on Franca, I see it happening. The announcers won't know what to say if Franca taps or gets choked out by Aurelio. That will be good for a laugh. Prediction: Aurelio by Submission late in round two.
The final fight is a completely meaningless filler bout in the welterweight division between "The People's Warrior" Josh Burkman and the guy who manages to find a way to lose every fight that he's on the verge of winning, Pete "Drago" Sell.
If you're wondering why Sell still has a job in the UFC, you're not alone. Though he has been on the cusp of UFC victory many times, he only has one win in the promotion, over "The New York Bad Ass" Phil Baroni way back at UFC 51. He has since dropped four of five fights, including KO losses to Scott Smith and Nate Quarry when he was on the verge of winning both fights. In short, Sell is the epitome of underperformer.
On the other hand, there's Burkman, who was once a powerhouse in the welterweight division and has now adopted a lazy and defensive style that lulls the crowd to sleep. Unless he pulls off a huge knockout or spectacular submission, both of which are possible against Sell, it's unlikely that Burkman is going to be around for long.
Though Burkman should win this, hilarity will ensue when Sell pulls off a shocking upset and sends Burkman packing to the minor leagues. He can return to the UFC when he reverts to the aggressive Burkman of old. Prediction: Sell by KO in round one.
UFC 90 airs live tomorrow night on pay-per-view, beginning at 10:00 P.M. Eastern, 7:00 Pacific.
