UFC 77 Predictions
by Robert Sargent & Daniel Regan
UFC 77 promises to be an exciting event, and includes a heavyweight battle between Brandon "The Truth" Vera and Tim "The Maine-iac" Sylvia and a UFC Middleweight Championship bout between Anderson "The Spider" Silva and Rich "Ace" Franklin.
MMARising.com looks over the solid card and offers in-depth predictions and analyses for each of the night's fights.
Anderson "The Spider" Silva vs Rich "Ace" Franklin
Daniel: Ding ding ding. What a rematch we have here. Actually, this match scares me more than anything. The last time these two were in the ring, Franklin's image was shattered. Now that Silva has gained even more confidence, and Franklin has looked lackluster in two fights, I don't see how he can pull this one off. He's rather lucky to even be getting this rematch after barely surviving Okami. After a boring first two rounds of no action, Okami almost ripped his arm off in the third. I just don't see how he can push past Silva. The only fighters in that division to have a chance against Silva are Henderson, Filho, and Kang. Bring them all. Sorry, Franklin, now's not your time, but I expect a late 2nd round knockout.Rob: I see it about the same. I definitely think that Franklin will have a better game plan - and backup game plan - than the last fight, but I think that Silva will overwhelm him with strikes once again. It may end with Thai clinch knees like the first fight, but Silva's striking is among the most diverse in all of MMA, so he can knock out Franklin in a variety of ways. If Franklin manages to get Silva to the ground, and can control position and avoid being submitted with triangles, Franklin could win this, but I just don't see it happening. I, too, see the fight ending by TKO sometime in the second round, with Silva as the victor. With Kang in K-1 HERO's now, and Filho refusing to fight his friend, Silva, I'm not sure who else is left to compete with Silva - aside from Dan Henderson, who is currently frustrated with the UFC and may not even re-sign - should he get past Franklin. Pick: Silva
Daniel: The problem is Franklin doesn't have the strong ground game that people mention. He's weaker on the ground than Marquardt and Lutter, and they were both handled. I don't see what he can do. He can't out-punch, kick, knee, or grapple Silva. I think he's out of his league. Pick: Silva
Tim "The Maine-iac" Sylvia vs Brandon "The Truth" Vera
Rob: Many casual fans will pick Sylvia to win this fight, even if they have booed him in the past, simply because of his size and Vera's lack of mainstream popularity. However, the reality of the situation is that Vera has the edge in every aspect of this fight, aside from size. Vera is a pretty small heavyweight, whereas Sylvia is one of the largest - though he is apparently considerably lighter for this fight than for previous ones, in order to compete with Vera's speed - but Vera's striking, agility and submission skills are all far, far better than Sylvia's. I do not discount the possibility of Sylvia winning this fight by KO/TKO, but I really see Vera taking this fight, and taking it convincingly. I see him either knocking Sylvia out or submitting him with a heel hook or kneebar, much like Arlovski did in his first fight with Sylvia. Despite Vera's long layoff from the UFC, I see him coming back strong and making a lot of fans in the process. I predict a late-first or early-second round TKO victory for Vera.Daniel: I completely disagree here. I think Vera could be great but he was afraid of Sylvia a few months ago. What's different now? Sylvia is pissed. I've never been a fan of the Maine-iac...but dear lord, when he's motivated, it's hard to stop him. Just look at anyone he faced before he won the title. I think Sylvia is going to show up in amazing shape and defeat Vera. I expect a very close first round that pulls in to a third round knockout by Sylvia. Honestly, it's time Vera got tested. He hasn't beaten anyone important yet, so let's see him go through the giant. Pick: Sylvia
Rob: Well, Frank Mir isn't a "nobody," and Vera handily defeated him in one minute, but the Frank Mir that broke Sylvia's arm and the Frank Mir that was knocked out against Vera are two totally different people. Mir hasn't been the same since the motorcycle crash. However, in looking at past fights, Sylvia struggled against Assuerio Silva, whereas Vera submitted him in the first round, so, thus far, Vera has finished two fighters that Sylvia has defeated only by decision (Silva) and lost to (Mir). If Vera comes into this fight confident in his abilities, I think that that confidence can surpass Sylvia's anger. Sylvia will tire himself out trying to keep up with Vera, which should lead to an opening for a punch, kick or knee from Vera. Pick: Vera
Eric "Ravishing Red" Schafer vs "The American Psycho" Stephan Bonnar
Daniel: Here we have a rather lackluster match. It brings attention to the weakness of the rest of the card for this night of fights. Schafer, a virtual unknown in the UFC and most recently known for getting finished by Bisping, is fighting Bonnar, a fighter who's known for his one-hit wonder fight with Forrest Griffin. Both fighters are several years away from title contention. Bonnar looked decent in his last fight, while Shafer lost a fight he probably could have won. I'll give my nod to Bonnar. Pick: BonnarRob: I'm also picking Bonnar for this. Schafer's submission skills are very good, but Bonnar is a tactician on the ground as well. Although Mike Nichols is hardly a top-ranked fighter, Bonnar handily defeated him on the ground, in what was probably Bonnar's best performance since the aforementioned Bonnar/Griffin 1. I honestly think that Bonnar can win this fight in any way that he chooses. Schafer will undoubtedly put up resistance on the ground, but Bonnar's striking is much better than Schafer's and Bonnar's ground game is on par or slightly better as well. Bonnar will likely win this with some sort of technical submission in the first round. Pick: Bonnar
Alan "The Talent" Belcher vs Kalib Starnes
Rob: This next fight is fairly easy for me to call, though anything is possible this year in MMA. Starnes is a much more well-rounded fighter, and has had more success in the UFC than Belcher has, and against some better competition. Both fighters were defeated by Yushin Okami, but Starnes's recent victory over Chris Leben far outshines Belcher's win over Sean Salmon, who has had a disastrous run in the UFC. Starnes is good on the ground, but his striking is also very good. Belcher has a decent ground game, but his striking is not on par with Starnes. I see Starnes taking this by TKO in the first or early-second round. Pick: StarnesDaniel: I agree completely. However, I'm upset with this card. We're watching two guys who were beaten by Okami, while Okami is on the unshown undercard. Starnes will take this, but it should be Okami that we are watching. Pick: Starnes
Yushin Okami vs Jason "The Athlete" MacDonald
Rob: That leads us to Okami's fight with Jason MacDonald, though we're unlikely to see it during the show. That is most unfortunate, as this could be one of the best fights on the card. Although I'm a fan of the Canadian, MacDonald, and do wish him success in the UFC, I think that Okami is far too experienced and far too dominant to be defeated by MacDonald. I see this being a much more fast-paced fight than Okami's fight with Franklin was, but I don't see MacDonald trading strikes for too long. I think that Okami will win this by TKO, likely by way of ground and pound, sometime in the second round. I think MacDonald can survive the opening stanza, but I don't see him lasting 10 minutes against Okami. We need to see Okami/Silva II, with a real winner this time, as soon as possible. Okami takes this. Pick: OkamiDaniel: I want to see this fight badly. Not because it's a great match-up but because it's exciting to see a successful Japanese fighter in the UFC. Okami is a powerful wrestler who goes away from the common 'Japanese' style. He's strong, a good striker, and he's marketable. I think the UFC should really get behind him after he steamrolls MacDonald. He's the third top guy in the division for the UFC, so he has to be up for the next title shot after this. TKO Round 3, as he always turns it on in round 3. Pick: Okami
Alvin "Kid" Robinson vs Jorge Gurgel
Daniel: This is yet another fight with little meaning. I'll take Gurgel with the victory. Pick: GurgelRob: I agree, this fight holds little merit. Robinson only has one fight in the UFC, which was a loss at UFC 73 to Kenny Florian, by TKO. Florian is a submission fighter who has terrible striking, and he still managed to TKO Robinson. Gurgel, on the other hand, is a much better fighter, but he hasn't fought any notable opponents in his three UFC fights. He lost to Mark Hominick, then defeated Danny Abbadi and Diego Saraiva, all by decision. He needs to develop stopping power before he can be a contender. Neither Robinson nor Gurgel are anywhere remotely near a Lightweight title shot, so this fight really solves nothing. Pick: Gurgel
Undercard Fights:
Demian Maia vs Ryan Jensen
Daniel: Jensen.Rob: Maia is 0-0 in the UFC, and Jensen is 0-1. This fight is just filler. I'll pick Jensen as well.
"The People's Warrior" Josh Burkman vs Forrest "The Meat Cleaver" Petz
Daniel: Burkman.Rob: Both fighters are experienced, but Petz's only notable UFC victory was over Luigi Fioravanti. Burkman has six UFC fights, with notable wins over Drew Fickett and Josh Neer. Burkman should win this easily.
Jason Black vs Matt "The Real One" Grice
Daniel: Black.Rob: Grice is coming off of a loss - his first - to Terry Etim, while Black is coming off of a loss as well, to Thiago Tavares. The difference is that Tavares is an excellent fighter, while Etim is just getting started in his career. Black has a wealth of experience, and only has two other losses (one to Top 6 Lightweight, Shinya Aoki) besides the loss to Tavares. If Black does not handily win this fight, probably in the first round, I will be surprised.
UFC 77 takes place this Saturday night on pay-per-view.
