UFC 99 Predictions
by Robert Sargent & Mike Miller
The Ultimate Fighting Championship enters Germany for the first time at UFC 99: "The Comeback," which is headlined by a catchweight bout between Rich "Ace" Franklin and "The Axe Murderer" Wanderlei Silva. MMARising.com previews the card.
A surprisingly solid main card also features highly-touted prospect Cain Velasquez, while Japanese lightweight sensation Caol "Uno Shoten" Uno makes his long-awaited return.
Rob: Starting off with the main event, we have a rare UFC catchweight bout between former UFC Middleweight Champion Rich "Ace" Franklin and former PRIDE Middleweight Champion "The Axe Murderer" Wanderlei Silva.
Mike: I want to start by saying that these are two of my favorite fighters and it is a shame that one of them will have to lose. In a perfect world, this fight would be an entertaining stand-up match and Franklin would be ahead on all three scorecards, but would have a point deducted for a foul, leaving the fight as a Draw!
Rob: I think that that sentiment is shared by many others, as they would prefer to see neither lose. Franklin is in a tough spot because he can't do anything in the middleweight division, but light heavyweight is ultra-competitive. Silva is in an even tougher position because a crushing KO loss could result in a forced retirement at the hands of UFC President Dana White. I have nothing at all against Franklin, and I actually think that he is probably going to win this fight by knockout and potentially end Silva's illustrious career in the process, but I am officially picking Silva because I want to see him have one final run at a major title. I don't know if he can beat Anderson Silva, but I sure do want to see him try. Prediction: Silva by KO late in round one.
Mike: I agree with the beginning statements. Franklin is one of the most beloved UFC champions ever, and Silva has always been a crowd favorite for his outright "haymakering" style. What seems like a simple stand-up fight is actually quite deep. Franklin was embarrassed by Anderson Silva twice, but before then, he was completely dominant. He was basically untouchable due to his power and brute strength, combined with his agility and heart. Not to mention that he actually has a good chin, and it was just repeated knees that diminished its resilience. Silva is one of the most powerful strikers ever in the sport of MMA, and 22 KOs in 32 wins speaks for itself.
Silva has hit a very tough patch recently, going one for five in recent fights with all four losses coming in dominant fashion. Silva's chin is obviously not what it used to be, and trading one punch for three shots is not working like it used to. I believe that if Silva comes out with a more strategic approach, he can win, but sadly he will not. He will stick with what has made him a legend in the sport. I see this ending by KO, but I am choosing Franklin in the second. Prediction: Franklin by KO in round two.
Rob: Next up is a heavyweight clash between contender-turned-gatekeeper Cheick Kongo and the top prospect in the UFC's lacklustre heavyweight division, Cain Velasquez.
Mike: Cheick Kongo might be an amazing fighter, but the UFC seems to be very content with feeding him low-level competition. Would Mirko have fought Kongo if he had beaten Gonzaga? Not a chance. Kongo's two losses in the UFC have come at the hands of wrestlers. Cain is a top-level wrestler who also has solid striking. I hope that Cain is too smart to stand and trade with the bigger, stronger and more skilled striker. If Cain can pull out a win, I see him being pushed to the brim of title contention. If Kongo wins this fight, he will likely be placed against one of the losers of the Couture vs Nogueira or Lesnar vs Mir fights. However, I do not see Kongo winning this fight. Prediction: Velasquez by Unanimous Decision.
Rob: Kongo is lucky to even be in this fight, with Velasquez's original opponent, Heath Herring, out with injury. This is certainly Velasquez's biggest fight to date, but Kongo is one of the most overrated fighters in the division. His ground and pound is admittedly impressive, but can he even take Velasquez down? Highly unlikely. In fact, Kongo will be the one fighting off of his back, and his ground game is still awful. While Kongo is durable and can take punishment, I actually see Velasquez stopping him and moving on to future title contention. Velasquez is the division's future, while Kongo is just a stepping stone on his way to greatness. Prediction: Velasquez by TKO in round two.
Mike: At least we can both agree that Cain will win. If Carmelo Marrero, a much, much smaller heavyweight, can defeat Kongo by applying his game plan of takedowns, then what chance does Kongo stand against Velasquez?
Rob: The next fight is a surprisingly interesting one, as welterweights Mike "Quick" Swick and Ben "Killa B" Saunders battle for a chance to move up in the division.
Mike: Honestly, while Ben was very impressive in his destruction of Brandon Wolff, he is not ready for the level of competition that Swick will bring, and Swick always brings it. Swick is a very powerful fighter who is, as his nickname suggests, agile and quick. I see this being a highly entertaining fight that will stay on the feet, with Swick controlling every aspect of the match while cruising, at top speed, to a decision. Prediction: Swick by Unanimous Decision.
Rob: I disagree here. While it's true that Saunders hasn't faced the same level of competition that Swick has, let's also remember that Swick couldn't cut it at 185 and had to drop to 170 to get some wins. He's not getting one here. Swick is quick and agile, yes, and also possesses solid power, but he does very little besides punch. Saunders, on the other hand, has highly varied striking and a vicious Thai clinch. Swick has a good chin and most seem to believe that this is going to a decision, but I'm going with another "upset" prediction here. I think that Saunders will wear Swick down and trap him in a Thai clinch, then finish him with knees like he did with Wolff. Swick will then be forced to starve himself to try a run at 155. Prediction: Saunders by TKO late in round two.
Mike: Could not win? He lost to a huge and "on a tear" middleweight named Yushin Okami. Saunders is a good fighter and his future does look bright right now, but Swick is a tested veteran and I think that that will tilt the fight in his favor.
Rob: Moving on, we have the big grudge match of the night, only this one won't disappoint like the snoozefest between Hughes and Serra. Welterweights Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy and "The Irish Hand Grenade" Marcus Davis square off to settle a war of words and determine once and for all whether Davis is really Irish.
Mike: Marcus Davis is a product of exceptional marketing by the UFC and his charismatic and outspoken attitude. While Davis is a strong man with a big heart and good boxing skills, he is not an unstoppable machine. He mostly faces guys who fit well with his style; fighters who will stand up and try to knock Davis's head off. When Davis fought a light and agile puncher, in the form of Mike Swick, he was utterly embarrassed. Hardy is a technical striker, but more importantly, he has accuracy and power. By angering Davis in their epic war of mud slinging, Hardy has ensured that Davis will play into his game. If Davis does try to knock Hardy out, I see the fight ending with Davis in a heap against the cage. Davis will try to please the fans by standing and banging with Dan Hardy, but in the end, he will only please the Dan Hardy fans. Prediction: Hardy by KO in round one.
Rob: Everyone is backing Davis in this fight. I do not understand why. This isn't Jess Liaudin that Davis is fighting. Hardy's chin is rock solid and he will be able to take the shots that Davis throws his way. Further, Hardy is one of the few fighters in the division who is even more agile and technically strong than Davis is when it comes to kickboxing proficiency. Davis will come into the fight overly emotional due to the latest crusade of "Davis isn't a real Irishman," and that will fall right into Hardy's plans. This will be an exciting fight for as long as it lasts, but I don't think it will be going on for an extended length of time. Look for Hardy to pick up his second straight knockout via vicious counterpunch. Back to gatekeeping, Marcus. Prediction: Hardy by KO in round one.
Rob: The next main card fight is the one that I am most looking forward to on the card, as lightweight striker Spencer "The King" Fisher meets Japanese legend Caol "Uno Shoten" Uno, who is making his return to the UFC after close to six years away.
Mike: Uno has been in this game for almost 13 years now, but is as much of a threat as ever. Fisher is actually one of my favorite fighters in the lightweight division, but lately I have been getting the sinking feeling that Fisher will never be more than a middle-of-the-pack UFC fighter. Fisher does not have incredibly powerful strikes, but is widely considered to own the fastest hands in all of the UFC. However, I do not see Fisher being able to land many of his punches before Uno takes him down and works for the eventual submission. While this is another match where I would love to see both win, I have to go with Uno. Prediction: Uno by Submission in round two.
Rob: Uno is awesome. You cannot not like Uno. He has tremendous heart and always works to put on a good show. Sure, he has made a few mistakes (losing to Joachim Hansen by knockout with 12 seconds left in a fight that Uno was handily winning, for example), but he is a legitimate threat to anyone. Having recently picked up his biggest victory in years, when he submitted perennial contender Mitsuhiro Ishida, Uno now makes his long-awaited return to the Octagon to test himself against the UFC's best. I am a fan of Fisher's and I hope that he sticks around for a long time to come, but this is Uno's time to shine. As long as he can avoid the early flurries from Fisher, Uno will be just fine. Prediction: Uno by Submission late in round two.
Rob: The final main card fight is rather sad, no matter what the outcome, as formerly feared heavyweight sensation Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipović slinks back into the UFC on a one-fight verbal agreement to take on the vastly overmatched Mostapha al-Turk.
Mike: This is a very simple fight. Cro Cop is fighting so that everyone - mainly the UFC bat wielders - can gauge what condition the former star is in. I see no way that al-Turk can win this, as Cro Cop is more than competent wherever the fight goes. This is a business decision for the UFC; an easy way to get rid of al-Turk (even though he has a four-fight contract) and a way to see what condition Cro Cop is in and how seriously he is taking what is quite possibly his last shot at actually holding a major title. Prediction: Cro Cop by TKO in round one.
Rob: This one-fight deal for Cro Cop is code for "I'm sneaking back into the UFC to avoid another mauling at the hands of Alistair Overeem." If Cro Cop wins this fight, he stays in the promotion and gets another fight. If he loses, his career is forever ruined and he'll be forced to retire. There's really no huge positive here. After the Gonzaga debacle, there is no way that I will be sitting here and saying that al-Turk has "no chance" to win this, because he could always pull a Randleman or a Gonzaga and KO Cro Cop with one random strike. Will it happen? It better not. If this ends with anything other than a Cro Cop head kick knockout, it will be a disappointment. The fact that Cro Cop has to resort to fighting such low levels of competition to get wins now is disappointing enough. Prediction: Cro Cop by brutal KO in round one.
Rob: The first undercard bout is a lightweight battle between the explosive Terry Etim and Justin Buchholz.
Mike: I do not like Buchholz's hair. Just saying. After they stand and bang for a bit, Buchholz will freak out and run to the black hole within him, wrestling. While trying to take Etim down, he will fall into a submission. Prediction: Etim by Submission in round one.
Rob: Buchholz's only shot is to take Etim down and lay and pray his way to a boring decision. The problem is that he isn't strong enough to hold Etim down for fifteen minutes, which spells bad times for Buchholz's face. Etim's kicks are fast and accurate, and his massive reach advantage should allow him to keep Buchholz at a distance. If Buchholz does take Etim down, he'll likely find himself trapped in a triangle choke. However, I don't even see him getting the chance to be choked out, as Etim will finish this in round two with a barrage of strikes. Prediction: Etim by TKO in round two.
Mike: While I agree that he will not be able to hold Etim down, I do think that he will take Etim down. However, that will quickly prove to be his downfall.
Rob: Next up is a complete waste of time, as local star Dennis Siver looks to pick up a much-needed win in front of his hometown crowd in a lightweight bout with Dale Hartt, who has no business even being in the UFC.
Mike: I agree...a German fighter to get the German crowd amped with a German win. Prediction: Siver by Blitzkrieg in round two.
Rob: I understand the need for these showcase fights featuring local talent, but it was more interesting when the local fighters actually had a chance at being contenders (or at least very exciting fighters) one day. Sadly, guys like Paul Kelly and Paul Taylor are competing in other bouts on this card, leaving Siver, who is most famous for being massacred by Melvin Guillard, to fend for himself against Hartt. Why Hartt is still in the company is beyond me. Siver can win this by whatever he wants, but we'll settle for a first-round knockout. Prediction: Siver by TKO in round one.
Rob: Speaking of him, the next fight features "Relentless" Paul Taylor, as he faces off with the man known as the "next big thing" in German MMA, Peter Sobotta, in a welterweight bout.
Mike: Paul Taylor is an exciting fighter with a big heart, but Paul Taylor is also a low-level welterweight who will never be in title contention. He has fallen short, albeit in painfully exciting fashion, in every big fight that he has had. I like the guy, but being nice only goes so far in a profession based around fighting. I see Sobotta taking this one. Prediction: Sobotta by Submission in round one.
Rob: It is difficult to base much of an opinion around Sobotta, as I know very little about him right now. This fight will be very telling as to what sort of impact, if any at all, he will have on the division. He comes into the UFC with a lot of hype, just as Cain Velasquez did in his debut, but the difference is that Velasquez has backed that up. Can Sobotta? He'll have everything he can handle against Taylor, who knows only one speed. That speed is a fast-paced, in-your-face, hit-you-until-you-drop sort of style. Sobotta is likely the favourite to win this, but here's hoping that Taylor finally does more than just put on an exciting performance in defeat. Prediction: Taylor by Unanimous Decision.
Mike: Interesting fact: Even though Taylor has fought in the UFC five times, this will be his first venture out of England.
Rob: Moving on, we have the other exciting fighter named Paul, as Paul "Tellys" Kelly makes his lightweight debut against a new contender for worst current UFC nickname, Rolando "The Crazy Cuban" Delgado.
Mike: Rolando is a joke and Frank Mir questioned the validity of the guy's black belt...I cannot think of anything more insulting. I give Kelly this win easily by TKO in the first round. Prediction: Kelly by TKO in round one.
Rob: Haha, yeah, the black belt fiasco was funny. Fortunately for me, I'm not picking Delgado in this fight anyway. Aside from a fairly poor ground game from his back, Kelly has demonstrated well-rounded skills and lots of heart. His drop to 155, provided that he cut weight properly, is a smart move and he should steamroll Delgado. Unless Delgado can take Kelly down and secure a submission from the top, such an as arm-triangle or something, this is Kelly's fight to win. Prediction: Kelly by TKO in round two.
Mike: Even if Rolando does get Kelly to the ground, Kelly is a very strong man and I am sure that he will keep a lot of his strength at the lightweight level. Rolando is a 6'3" string pole and he doesn't have the power to keep Kelly down.
Rob: The next fight is actually even worse than the Siver-Hartt bout, as heavyweights Denis "The Menace" Stojnic and Stefan "Skyscraper" Struve, both fresh off of lopsided losses in February, battle to remain employed.
Mike: This one is very obvious. Struve wants to take the fight to the ground and Stojnic would love to land a few shots on his chin. Sadly, I doubt that Stojnic can even reach Struve's chin, as the 6'11" Struve is a full foot taller. I see Struve striding across the Octagon, grabbing the overweight Stojnic and taking him to the ground for a quick submission. Prediction: Struve by Submission in round one.
Rob: Struve possesses a massive height and reach advantage in this fight, but he barely even needs it. Stojnic is one of the greatest punching bags in UFC history, but that's all he is. Unless he catches Struve with a wild haymaker, Struve can win this by any method he likes. He should just lift his leg up high and step on top of Stojnic. KO via Jolly Green Giant Stomp. At least that would provide some comedy because this fight is awful. Prediction: Struve by TKO late in round one.
Rob: The final fight of the night is a welterweight bout between highly talented John "The Hitman" Hathaway and Rick "The Horror" Story. Props to Story for coming up with a nickname that actually works with his real name.
Mike: You mean we actually found a fighter who is not nicknamed "The Assassin?" Incredible. Honestly, though, this fight is set up to give Hathaway more highlight reel material, and also because he is from Europe. Hopefully after this win, The Hitman gets a more credible opponent. Prediction: Hathaway by TKO in round one.
Rob: The only horror story in this fight will be the images of Story being carried to his corner after Hathaway uses his face for punching practice. Hathaway is one of the few featured European fighters who seems to have a legitimate future in the UFC. He could even be a potential challenger for a title one day, if he keeps stringing together impressive wins. Story has a decent ground game, but that doesn't help when you're being punched and elbowed in the face. He will be here. Story time is over. Prediction: Hathaway by TKO late in round one.
Mike: Wow, you really went all-out on that one. This fight will leave Story in such a horrific state that not even Stephen King could have foreseen it. Looks like the cover is closing on Story's UFC attempt. I guess the ink has run dry for Story's future in the UFC. Looks like Hathaway wrote the last word in Story's UFC career.
Rob: Okay, you're cut off.
UFC 99: "The Comeback" takes place this Saturday night in Cologne, Germany, and airs live on pay-per-view.
