UFC 98 Predictions
by Robert Sargent
For the first time in the promotion's history, two undefeated fighters will battle for UFC gold, as UFC Light Heavyweight Champion "Sugar" Rashad Evans defends against Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida at UFC 98. MMARising.com breaks down the card.
Also on the main card, a years-in-the-making grudge match will finally take place when former UFC Welterweight Champions Matt Hughes and Matt Serra square off to settle the score.
Beginning with the main event of the evening, UFC Light Heavyweight Champion "Sugar" Rashad Evans will look to successfully defend his title against karate ace Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida.
The UFC Light Heavyweight Championship has changed hands three times in just shy of two years, as Quinton "Rampage" Jackson first dethroned long-time champion Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell on May 26th, 2007. Jackson lost the title in controversial fashion to Forrest Griffin, who, in turn, was defeated by Evans at UFC 92. Now, Evans looks to defend the title against Machida, but another changing of the guard is in the cards here.
Evans has racked up an impressive list of stoppage victories since January of 2007, including vicious knockouts of Sean Salmon and the aforementioned Liddell. However, his ability to take power shots from his opponents has yet to be clearly determined, and Machida's unorthodoxed strikes and power will serve as a perfect indicator in deciding whether Evans is really a champion or not.
Machida's defensive style of countering opponents and evading strikes earned critics in his first few UFC bouts, but fans have finally begun to understand that Machida's techniques are among the most effective - if not the most effective - of anyone in mixed martial arts. His ability to inflict damage, while taking almost none in return, defines the perfect strategy to take into a fight. Coming off of a knockout win over dangerous striker Thiago Silva, Machida is eager to finally assume his place atop the division.
This fight will start off slowly, but the pace will pick up in the middle rounds as Machida begins to pick Evans apart. It is definitely possible that Evans could land a one-punch haymaker knockout, but he has to actually hit Machida in order to accomplish that. Machida will frustrate Evans early on and Evans will get sloppy, which will lead to Machida pummelling him with strikes that eventually end the fight. Evans's best hope is that he can put on a decent showing against Machida, who makes most of his opponents look amateur, at best. In the end, though, it won't be enough. Prepare for a new and potentially lengthy era in the UFC. Prediction: Machida by TKO in round four.
The co-main event of the evening is a grudge match between former UFC Welterweight Champions Matt Hughes and Matt "The Terror" Serra. This fight, which is now years in the making, was originally scheduled to take place at UFC 79 at the end of 2007.
While it is tempting to believe all of the hype surrounding this fight, the reality is that this is likely to be a slow and tactical battle that goes to the scorecards. Serra possesses big power in his punches and will be looking to knock Hughes out, while Hughes will inevitably try for an endless series of takedowns, but Hughes is simply nowhere near the fighter that he was years ago. As such, he will take Serra down, but will be able to do little or nothing on the ground. The once storied ground-and-pound from Hughes is long gone.
If Serra is able to connect with a looping hook early on, he may be able to finish Hughes. If he cannot, and the fight makes it out of round one, it's Hughes's to lose. Serra needs to make use of every bit of jiu-jitsu that he can if he hopes to escape with anything other than a one-punch victory, as Hughes will spend this fight pinning Serra to the mat. The problem is that Serra never uses his jiu-jitsu, so this is destined to be 15 minutes of Hughes's lay-and-pray. Either way, this will not be a memorable bout. Prediction: Hughes by Unanimous Decision.
The next fight is a middleweight bout that, much like Pete Sell vs Matt Brown from UFC 96, has absolutely no business being on the main card and is only here to satisfy drunken, bloodthirsty "casual fans" who would otherwise boo everything. Heavy-hitting Drew "The Massacre" McFedries, who possesses no ground game whatsoever, takes on Cage Rage import Xavier "Professor X" Foupa-Pokam, who is a well-rounded fighter that always seems to find a way to lose fights he should win.
This fight won't go long, so little time will be spent going over it. McFedries will either win the fight via knockout in less than 90 seconds or he'll be taken down and submitted. That basically sums up every one of McFedries's fights, which has led to his dismal 7-5-0 record. However, McFedries has perservered through numerous tragedies and health issues in his life and, for one night at least, that will pay off here.
Foupa-Pokam is a talented kickboxer, but he's going to get overconfident and will try to strike with McFedries. This will not go well. Expect McFedries to rock Foupa-Pokam with a punch very early in round one and finish the fight soon after. Foupa-Pokam is clearly the better fighter of the two, but his chin isn't good enough to survive the bombs that McFedries will throw his way. Unfortunate for Foupa-Pokam, since he is taking this fight on short notice. Prediction: McFedries by KO in round one.
Next up is a much better middleweight contest, as submission ace and final IFL Middleweight Champion Dan Miller looks to go 4-0 in the UFC when he takes on wrestling standout and unofficial final WEC Middleweight Champion Chael Sonnen.
The key here is whether or not Sonnen can defend the vast array of submissions that Miller will throw his way. Sonnen's takedowns are among the best in the division and his ground control isn't far behind. The main hinderance in his past has been a susceptibility to being submitted.
Miller, much like Sonnen's last opponent, Demian Maia - who, incidentally, submitted Sonnen - is phenomenal on the ground and will look to counter Sonnen's takedowns with triangle chokes and armbars. Sonnen needs to be wary of this and never lose focus, as a split-second mistake could cost him the fight.
While Sonnen is an extremely talented fighter and will hopefully be in the UFC for a long time to come, Miller's submissions will prove to be Sonnen's downfall. One more quality win could vault Miller into title contention. Prediction: Miller by Submission late in round one.
The final main card fight is a lightweight bout with major title implications for the future, as former champion "The Muscle Shark" Sean Sherk faces rising star Frankie "The Answer" Edgar.
Sherk has recently displayed a tendency to want to stand and trade strikes, rather than using his top-notch wrestling skills. This is partly due to an increased focus on finishing fights and pleasing fans, but the downside is that it takes away from Sherk's biggest strengths. Additionally, while it has improved in leaps and bounds, Sherk's striking is not as good as the UFC likes to hype.
Edgar is very good at taking people down as well, but his striking has come a long way in the past two years and his speed and technical punches could prove to be too much for Sherk. It must be noted that Edgar's lone defeat came against another powerful wrestler, Gray Maynard. If Sherk uses a smart game plan and takes Edgar down throughout the fight, he will score a clear-cut decision. If he takes his chances on the feet, this could turn into a nightmare for Sherk.
Knowing that Sherk is determined to stand and trade punches, and that Edgar is ravenous to get a chance to get back into future title contention, this is Edgar's fight to win. He is fully capable of pulling off the upset, but he must defend takedowns from Sherk and use his superior technical striking to wear the former champion down. This is a close fight that could go either way. Prediction: Edgar by Split Decision.
The first undercard fight is a welterweight battle between former WEC title challenger Brock Larson and submission wizard Mike "Quicksand" Pyle, who is taking the fight on just one day's notice after Larson's original opponent, Chris Wilson, failed to file the required medical documents.
Living up to his reputation of taking on all challengers at any time, Pyle has stepped into the fight with just one day to prepare for one of his toughest tests to date. Larson has been defeated just twice in his lengthy career, with those losses coming against former UFC title challenger Jon Fitch and final WEC Welterweight Champion "The Natural Born Killer" Carlos Condit. He has huge wins on his résumé and would like nothing more than to add Pyle's name to that list.
One way or another, this fight is going to the ground and Pyle's mastery of the submission game is something to behold. He can pull off submissions from all angles and will be relentless in his attacks. Larson is a huge welterweight who possesses tremendous strength, and he will need every bit to power out of Pyle's chokes and armbars. Win or lose, both fighters will be around for a long time, but this is finally Pyle's chance to shine. Prediction: Pyle by Submission in round one.
Moving on, we have a heavyweight tilt between kickboxing phenom Pat "HD" Barry and Canadian giant Tim "The Thrashing Machine" Hague.
Two words sum up this fight: leg kicks. Barry has some of the most devastating leg and body kicks in mixed martial arts, and had a very successful run in kickboxing. Having watched one of Hague's fights live, when he was defeated by Miodrag "Pele" Petkovic last February in Calgary, I can safely say that Hague's biggest weakness is leg kicks.
In their fight, Petkovic kicked Hague's lead leg so many times that Hague could barely walk back to his corner after the first round. The punishment continued in round two until Hague scored a takedown, and he employed the same intelligent strategy of wrestling in round three to survive to a decision. Hague lost the fight, but he needs to use the same mindset of takedowns in this battle with Barry.
Barry's ground game is essentially non-existent, so he needs to keep this fight standing at all costs. Hague is a gigantic heavyweight and could pin Barry down on the ground with ease. If Barry makes a mistake, Hague will be right there to capitalise, but any result other than a TKO victory for Barry would surprise me. Prediction: Barry by TKO late in round one.
The lightweights take the stage in the next contest, as TUF Season 8 finalist "The Filipino Assassin" Phillipe Nover squares off with Kyle Bradley.
Nover was supposed to be "the next Anderson Silva," but he was defeated by Efrain Escudero in the finalé of TUF 8. Still wanting to make inroads into The Philippines, the UFC is banking on stars such as Nover to headline shows overseas. As such, he's being given this fight against Bradley, which is nothing more than a gimme fight to get Nover back on the winning track.
A fluke could happen here and Bradley could pull off some sort of monumental upset, but there is a reason why Bradley is 0-2 in the UFC. Nover is a far better fighter and is an overwhelming favourite to win here. This fight won't go long and should be the last time that we see Bradley in the UFC. Prediction: Nover by TKO in round one.
Next, we have an interesting battle of former light heavyweight stars in the IFL, as submission specialist "The Polish Experiment" Krzysztof Soszynski takes on well-rounded striker Andre Gusmao.
Soszynski has picked up two straight submission wins via Kimura, and will be looking to add Gusmao to his growing list of UFC victims. Gusmao is most famous for twice knocking out another recent addition to the UFC, Mike Ciesnolevicz, when both were competing in the IFL. He has big power in his hands and knees, and Soszynski must be wary of getting trapped in a Thai clinch.
Gusmao's ground game is also solid, but Soszynski's prowess in locking on Kimuras in a matter of seconds means that Gusmao must tread carefully. If Gusmao can keep the fight on the feet, he should be able to wear Soszynski down and finish the fight with a second- or third-round knockout, but Soszynski will be doing everything possible to add another victim to the Kimura Club. His ground game will be a bit too much for Gusmao. Prediction: Soszynski by Submission in round two.
The next fight is a welterweight bout between Judo sensation Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida and Brandon Wolff.
Much like the Nover vs Bradley bout, this is a chance for Yoshida to get a win after his shocking knockout loss to Josh Koscheck. In this fight, there is basically no way for Wolff to win unless he can score a random, haymaker knockout. Yoshida simply outclasses him in every possible area.
Barring a one-punch knockout from Wolff, Yoshida will throw him to the mat early on and proceed to submit Wolff with whatever he wants. Look for Wolff to be choked out early in round one. Prediction: Yoshida by Submission in round one.
The final fight of the evening is a lightweight bout between TUF alums "Diamond" David Kaplan and George Roop.
Based solely off of his hilarious entrance music and personality, as well as his promise to sport a blonde mullet for the fight, I hope that Kaplan wins this because the UFC only has a few legitimately funny and entertaining fighters right now. Whether Kaplan can pull this off or not, we'll see when the fight takes place.
Kaplan's best chance is to keep the fight standing and use quick strikes to keep Roop off-balance. If opportunities for takedowns arise, he can take them, but Roop is skilled on the ground. It's unlikely that either fighter will be able to finish the other, and this could be close enough for a Split Decision. The loser of this fight will likely be released from the UFC. Prediction: Kaplan by Unanimous Decision.
With a highly-anticipated main event title fight, UFC 98: Evans vs Machida promises to determine the true king of the UFC's light heavyweight division, but the overhyped grudge match between Matt Hughes and Matt Serra seems destined to fail to live up to expectations.
