UFC 97 Predictions
by Robert Sargent & Mike Miller
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Canada tomorrow night for UFC 97, and MMARising.com previews the card, which is headlined by a UFC Middleweight Championship bout between champion Anderson "The Spider" Silva and Thales Leites.
The co-main event features one of the most pivotal light heavyweight bouts in recent memory, as Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell both desperately seek a victory.
Rob: Starting off with the main event of the evening, we have a UFC Middleweight Championship bout between champion Anderson "The Spider" Silva and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace Thales Leites.
Mike: This is a classic striker versus grappler match. While Silva does have a Black Belt in BJJ, he will still look to keep the fight standing at all costs. Leites is a top BJJ practitioner in MMA and is known for his quick and technical submissions. Silva, of course, would love to get Leites in a clinch and finish the fight with knees.
Rob: The UFC is running out of challengers for Silva's title, and it's questionable as to whether Leites really deserves this chance. Denis Kang was supposed to come in and save the division, but he made a mental error and saw his hopes dashed by an Alan Belcher guillotine choke. Yushin Okami was supposed to get a title shot forever ago, but the UFC enjoys messing with his life. So, we have Leites, whose only hope for winning this fight is to score a takedown and lock on a quick submission before Silva can get back to his feet. Is that likely? Well, maybe, but Silva's striking is about as good as it gets. As much as I would really like to pick Leites to win this - and I'd be thrilled if he did win - this is Silva's fight to lose. Prediction: Silva by TKO in round two.
Mike: I agree. I think that giving Leites this title shot, after defeating a submission prone Drew McFedries and a questionable win over a point-docked Nate Marquardt, is highly suspect, but in reality just shows how the UFC's middleweight division is in turmoil. While Leities does have a strong chin, I suspect it to also give out in round two. Prediction: Silva by TKO in round two.
Rob: The co-main event of the evening features two former top stars who now need a win to ensure that they remain in the company, as former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell takes on 2005 PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix Champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.
Mike: This is a fight that really holds the future for these two fighters. A weak performance by either will most likely result in a drop from their UFC contract or even a drop to the undercard. Both of these fighters have the skills to be at the top of the division, but neither one has been living up to that. Is Liddell too old? Was Rua using some friendly help in PRIDE? Both of these questions have been raised, and neither fighter has done anything to dispel them.
Rob: If Shogun loses this fight, I'll probably die a little inside. Not because I wish to take anything away from Liddell, who has done tremendous things to grow the sport, but because Shogun has the potential to be the greatest light heavyweight fighter in MMA history. That is, if he can manage to stay healthy. Both fighters are taking this fight extremely seriously, and both are training harder than they have in a long time. That should result in a great fight, but unfortunately, one fighter is likely to meet the end of their career at the conclusion of the night. Liddell has had a great run in the UFC, but it is time for him to step away and let the future stars of the promotion take over. Prediction: Rua by KO late in round one.
Mike: I think the main factor coming into this fight will be Rua's conditioning. He has started off great in both UFC fights, against Coleman and Griffin, but has gassed incredibly quickly. A fighter with his skills, as you said, has the potential to be the best 205er ever, but he has to live up to everything first. I believe that Liddell will be adamant in keeping to his counterpunching tactic, seeing as how he got overly aggressive against Evans and everyone saw how that turned out. I see this fight having a quick beginning, but Liddell eventually staying alive to pull off the upset. If it is an upset? Prediction: Liddell by TKO in round three.
Rob: Next up is a light heavyweight bout that has little business being on the main card, as recent TUF alum and former IFL star "The Polish Experiment" Krzysztof Soszynski takes on former WEC Light Heavyweight Champion "The All-American" Brian Stann.
Mike: Much agreed, this is a disgrace to be on the main card. Neither of these fighters have a future; however, Soszynski being a TUF alum and Stann being a marine and a former WEC fan favorite means that both of these guys have some backing by the public. This fight is pure business by the UFC.
Rob: Hey, it can't be worse than the utter embarrassment that was Brown vs Sell at UFC 96. Regardless, neither of these fighters are overly great at taking punishment, but both are excellent strikers. The difference is that Soszynski's ground game is also very good, while Stann's is essentially non-existent. Stann may win the early striking battles, but Soszynski is an intelligent fighter and should be able to get the fight to the ground with little effort. From there, the finish is academic. Prediction: Soszynski by TKO or Submission in round two.
Mike: Really? I think that Soszynski has the advantage anywhere the fight goes. The experience that he brings is simply too much. While Stann will definitely be the aggressor, seeing as this is his UFC debut and he has a lot to prove after his loss at the hands of Cantwell, I see him getting overwhelmed by Soszynski in round two by TKO. Prediction: Soszynski by TKO in round two.
Rob: Moving along, we have a heavyweight bout between perennial gatekeeper Cheick Kongo and leg kick specialist Antoni Hardonk.
Mike: Both of these fighters belong in kickboxing. That being said, I have never been too impressed with Kongo, and he never has lived up to his hype. Yeah, he beat Cro Cop, but that Cro Cop was not the one that everyone was used to and was later revealed to have had a nasal problem which reduced his air intake greatly. Hardonk, on the other hand, has shown improvement, and I expect him to look even better in this fight. I sense a great fight on the feet.
Rob: In this battle of fighters with no ground game, Hardonk's best chance is to keep this fight standing. Hardonk has absolutely zero takedown defence, and Kongo's ground and pound of Mostapha Al-Turk was positively vicious. The 20 seconds he spent battering Al-Turk was the only time that Kongo has ever looked truly impressive. If he can take Hardonk down and land more of those strikes, Hardonk is screwed. By contrast, if Hardonk can manage to keep the fight on the feet, he can knock Kongo out or simply chop him down with leg kicks. While a Kongo victory by TKO or boring decision is likely, I'll take Hardonk in the semi-upset here, by KO from a flashy head kick midway through round one. Prediction: Hardonk by KO in round one.
Mike: I think that this fight is pointless, and neither of these fighters stand any chance of ever holding a UFC belt. This fight should also have been relegated to the undercard. Both are gatekeepers in the truest sense, but sadly, I have to go against my fighter and say that I think this will be a Kongo UD. Prediction: Kongo by Unanimous Decision.
Rob: The final main card bout is another light heavyweight contest, as the final WEC Light Heavyweight Champion, Steve "The Robot" Cantwell, takes on surging contender Luiz "Banha" Cane.
Mike: I feel that Cantwell has been built up by the UFC to be fed to Luiz. He is a former WEC champion and won his Octagon debut in brutal fashion. To many, this is a solid pedigree. Luiz, as said, is a rising star after his throwdown with wash-out Sokoudjou. His only loss was a controversial DQ, and all of his wins have been very impressive.
Rob: Cane enjoys hitting people. Plain and simple. He could easily rely on his impressive submission skills, but he prefers to leave his opponents a battered mess instead. Cantwell is absolutely no joke, and should serve as a solid test for essentially everyone in the mid-range of the UFC's light heavyweight division. However, Cane is simply on another level. As long as Cane can survive early flurries from Cantwell, he can win this fight by whatever he wants. Prediction: Cane by TKO in round two.
Mike: I sense that Luiz will roll over Cantwell, be catapulted into title contender status and, after another win, get a title shot. Prediction: Cane by TKO in round one.
Rob: The first undercard fight is one that honestly couldn't be much more of a time waster, as TUF failures Eliot "The Fire" Marshall and Vinicius Magalhães face off in a light heavyweight bout that holds no meaning whatsoever.
Mike: Both of these guys are solid BJJ practitioners, but the edge clearly goes to the world-class level Vinny.
Rob: I'm trying to figure out why this fight is even taking place. I assume that it's supposed to be a showcase fight for Vinny, but Vinny's chin is on the level of Jonathan Goulet, so this could end badly. I actually see Marshall avoiding the ground game altogether and simply knocking Vinny out with a jab or some other hilarious strike. Good times ensue. Prediction: Marshall by KO in round one.
Mike: To be honest, this fight should never have even been made, but I see Vinny winning this by armbar in round 2. Prediction: Magalhães by Submission in round two.
Rob: The next undercard fight is one that should (and would) be on the main card, if not for Kang's failure in his previous bout, as Spirit MC Heavyweight Champion and former PRIDE star Denis "Super Korean" Kang takes on Cage Rage mainstay Xavier "Professor X" Foupa-Pokam in a middleweight contest.
Mike: I would have preferred for these two to be fighting other opponents, seeing as that I like both of them and would like both to have a future in the UFC. I see Kang coming in focused and ready to (finally) make his mark on the middleweight division.
Rob: Both of these fighters have major wins in their careers, but both also have significant defeats and have choked in big fights in the past. This will be decided on which fighter makes a mistake first. Kang really has not been the same fighter since the tragic events of 2006 and his highly controversial loss to Kazuo Misaki in the PRIDE Welterweight Grand Prix Finals. Professor X is finally getting his chance to shine in front of a major North American audience, but he faces a very tough and well-rounded fighter. If Kang loses this fight, he needs to seriously re-evaluate his career, which unfortunately will need to be done from outside of the UFC. Let's hope that, for his sake, he doesn't put himself in another fight-ending submission. Prediction: Kang by TKO in round two.
Mike: Barring another mental lapse, I see Kang winning by submission in round two. Prediction: Kang by Submission in round two.
Rob: The next bout is a middleweight contest between submission specialist Jason "The Athlete" MacDonald and power puncher Nate "Rock" Quarry.
Mike: Quarry has a big heart and a lot of determination, but the problem is that he does not defend against submissions. He was on a fast-track to stardom until his brutal and nearly career-ending knockout at the hands of Rich Franklin. He came back to win two fights against competition that will never earn any title shots. Predictably, Nate was quickly submitted by submission wizard Demian Maia, and I see the same happenening here.
Rob: The difference between MacDonald and Maia, however, is that Maia doesn't pretend that he can stand and trade strikes with those who possess the punching power of Quarry. MacDonald was just mauled by Wilson Gouveia, whose striking is both less technical and less powerful than Quarry's. If MacDonald isn't smart and doesn't take the fight to the ground quickly, he's going to be knocked out. Quarry already has leagues of Canadian fans after his dismantling of Kalib Starnes, and MacDonald could be his latest victim. That said, MacDonald's UFC career consists of alternating wins and losses, one at a time, so he will win this by way of following patterns. Prediction: MacDonald by Submission in round one.
Mike: I believe that MacDonald is truly defined by the word gatekeeper, more so than anyone else in MMA. Every person who has beaten him has been placed on the fast-track to a title shot. However, he will be too much for Quarry. Prediction: MacDonald by Submission in round one.
Rob: The next fight is the long-awaited return of The Crow, as former UFC Middleweight title challenger David "The Crow" Loiseau battles Ed "Short Fuse" Herman.
Mike: Herman looks like he is fighting in a time warp. Everything he does looks slow and methodical. While in some fights this has been effective, it is obviously not a belt-worthy approach. Loiseau is a flashy, powerful, much-loved Canadian striker who will decimate Herman with something spinning and backwards, and end up sending Herman, with this third straight loss, out of the UFC.
Rob: Long before the world knew of Anderson Silva, Loiseau was the undisputed king of aggression and dominance in the middleweight division. However, a lopsided title loss to Rich Franklin sent his career into a spiral, and a new, timid Loiseau emerged. The reality is that Loiseau should have made his return to the UFC last year, as he won the fight over Jason Day last February in Calgary (but was mercilessly robbed by the judges), but that is in the past and Loiseau is here now. If the timid Loiseau shows up, this fight will end in a boring decision. If the old Loiseau shows up, it will end quickly and decisively. Either way, Loiseau wins this fight. Here's hoping that we see the old Crow back in top form. Prediction: Loiseau by TKO late in round one.
Mike: This is a great way for the UFC to set up the return of a near-legend and get rid of excess baggage at the same time. Prediction: Loiseau by Unanimous Decision.
Rob: Next is a lightweight bout between Canadian submission wizard Mark Bocek and Swedish counterpart David Bielkheden.
Mike: Both fighters train at schools with top reputations and both fighters have solid ground skills. Bocek was submitted by Mac Danzig, but rebounded and submitted Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt Alvin Robinson. However, he was also TKOed by Frankie "The Decision" Edgar.
Rob: For those who still don't know who Bielkheden is after his first two UFC fights, he is a former gatekeeper in Europe who failed miserably in PRIDE and has thus far come up short every time he has faced decent competition. Bocek is still a relative unknown, but he is one of the best Jiu-Jitsu fighters to come out of Canada. Bielkheden holds a significant size advantage, but that will be no match for Bocek, who will score an easy submission. Prediction: Bocek by Submission in round one.
Mike: Bocek's career is a rollercoaster of ups and downs. I sense that this fight will be an up for him, as he submits David in round two. Prediction: Bocek by Submission in round two.
Rob: Next up is a welterweight bout that sees Ryo "The Piranha" Chonan get his final chance at success in the UFC, as he takes on highly-regarded Canadian standout TJ Grant.
Mike: Sadly, I have no idea who Grant is. He apparently submits people, but that is about all that I can see.
Rob: Chonan's career should have skyrocketed to unbelievable heights after he submitted Anderson Silva with a flying scissor heel hook, but he has instead endured a rocky road over the past few years. His striking looked vastly improved when he faced Karo Parisyan in his UFC debut, and welterweight is definitely Chonan's ideal weight class. However, Grant, despite being completely unknown to those outside of Canada, is a very talented submission artist who already holds wins over UFC veterans Chad Reiner and Forrest Petz. I would very much like to see Grant succeed in the UFC, and he definitely has the potential to, but I hope that Chonan pulls this one off. Chonan will forever be underrated, but a key win here would at least ensure that he stays in the UFC. Prediction: Chonan by Unanimous Decision.
Mike: It took a steroid-infused Paulo Filho to make Chonan tap in a fight. I do not see Grant being able to make Chonan submit; however, I do not see Chonan finishing the Canadian, either. Prediction: Grant by Unanimous Decision.
Rob: The final fight of the evening pits Canadian striking standout Sam "Hands of Stone" Stout against "Handsome" Matt Wiman in a lightweight bout.
Mike: Stout looked like he had a bright future when he defeated Spencer Fisher, but has since only let the fans down. After every up, it seems that Stout falls two steps down the ladder. Wiman, on the other hand, is a very game fighter who managed to pull off the upset win over Thiago Tavares. Recently, he lost to Jim Miller, but he at least survived the full 15 minutes.
Rob: Stout is an extremely talented kickboxer, but his ground game still needs a lot of work before he will ever be a contender in the UFC. His chin is very good, so Wiman is unlikely to be able to score another highlight-reel knockout, but a victory for Wiman here is highly probable. Wiman's only stoppage loss was to the famous flying knee from Spencer Fisher, and there will be none of that from Stout. Having said that, this will be my surprise pick of the card, as I'm going to take Stout by TKO. It's been forever since Stout stopped anybody, and a Wiman win by decision is definitely the most likely result here, but it's about time that Stout finally showed why he was the TKO Lightweight Champion for years. Prediction: Stout by TKO in round two.
Mike: I sense that Wiman will only impress us more in this fight. Prediction: Wiman by Unanimous Decision.
Aside from a few fights on the massive card that serve as little more than filler, the UFC's second venture into Canada seems poised to be a successful one, and will have a tremendous impact on many fighters' careers.
