UFC 96 Predictions
by Robert Sargent
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Ohio tomorrow night for UFC 96, and MMARising.com looks over the card, which features title eliminator bouts pitting Shane Carwin against Gabriel Gonzaga and Quinton Jackson against Keith Jardine.
The night also features a lightweight battle between Jim Miller and Gray Maynard, and a terrible main card bout between Matt Brown and Pete Sell to remain employed.
The main event of the evening pits former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson against "The Dean of Mean" Keith Jardine, in a fight that could put Jackson next in line for a title shot.
While many expect Jackson to end the fight with a quick knockout, Jardine's style should not be discounted, as it is the perfect counter for Jackson's aggressive striking. Jackson has shown no interest in checking or defending leg kicks, which was a large part of his downfall against Forrest Griffin, and Jardine's leg kicks are among the best in the division. If Jackson stands in front of Jardine for too long, he's going to have trouble standing up.
On the other hand, Jardine's chin is not at the level required of a champion in the UFC. Jackson could very easily knock him out early in round one, the way that Wanderlei Silva did. If Jardine fails to pace himself in the early goings, he'll be woken up by his cornermen after a vicious combination of punches shuts his lights off.
Jackson needs to win this fight to ensure himself a title shot against Rashad Evans, who is one of Jardine's training partners. Jardine and Evans have stated that they have no interest in fighting each other again, so a Jardine win would likely set up a fight with another top contender.
This is Jackson's fight to win or lose, and it depends heavily on which style he uses to combat Jardine. While Jackson may score that quick knockout, Jardine's unorthodoxed style will likely see him survive round one, but Jackson will finish the fight late in round two. Prediction: Jackson by KO late in round two.
The co-main event features a battle of heavyweight contenders, as knockout artist Shane Carwin takes on former title challenger Gabriel "Napăo" Gonzaga.
This fight is not going the distance. That much is assured. For that matter, it is unlikely to make it out of round one, as the punching power of both men all but ensures a quick knockout.
Gonzaga is used to being able to take his opponents down at will, but Carwin's size and strength advantage, along with his incredible wrestling skills, should be enough to keep the fight standing. That is bad news for Gonzaga, who has already suffered three TKO defeats in his career.
While Gonzaga may be seen as the favourite in this fight, it would be more of an upset if he were to win. His career has stalled, while Carwin's is on the fast-track to success. Gonzaga may look impressive in the opening minutes, but Carwin will finish him off and end his title hopes for good. Prediction: Carwin by KO in round one.
The next fight is quite possibly the worst fight to ever receive third billing on a UFC pay-per-view card, as two welterweights with no futures and horrible records, Pete "Drago" Sell and "The Immortal" Matt Brown, square off for absolutely no reason.
Let's begin with the obvious question as to how a card has become so poor that this fight needs to be on the main card. Sell has made a career out of getting KOed in fights he was winning. His last notable win came over Phil Baroni (no, beating Josh Burkman does not count). Unfortunately, that was in early 2005.
Brown is only still employed by the UFC because he beat Matt Arroyo (again), who is another fighter who should never have been in the UFC in the first place. Apparently, beating Ryan "The Tank Engine" Thomas has earned Brown a spot on a PPV main card. What?!?
Regardless, this fight will end with Brown scoring a vicious first-round knockout, as the only purpose of this fight is to get Brown a win in front of a crowd, since the UFC somehow thinks he has potential. He doesn't, and he never will. Quit wasting valuable airtime on such nonsense. Prediction: Brown by KO early in round one.
The next fight, while not stellar, is at least far more worthy of its place on the main card of the telecast. Light heavyweights Matt "The Hammer" Hamill and undefeated former WEC star "The Filipino Wrecking Machine" Mark Munoz square off in a battle of outstanding wrestlers.
This is likely to be a very competitive bout, as both possess similar skill sets. Hamill perhaps holds an edge in punching, while Munoz's kicks are impressive. Both are talented wrestlers with solid striking skills on the ground.
Munoz should put on a good showing, and may even win the first round, but Hamill's relentless offence will eventually wear Munoz down and allow Hamill to score a late stoppage or win a Unanimous Decision. If Hamill loses this fight, it will be rather detrimental for his career. Prediction: Hamill by Unanimous Decision.
The final fight on the main card could prove to be the Fight of the Night, as lightweight standouts Gray "The Bully" Maynard and Jim Miller look to take one step closer to a title shot.
Maynard has earned himself the not-so-affectionate nickname of "The Blanket," for his propensity to take his opponents down and then proceed to do absolutely nothing but keep them there. Miller is far too skilled for those tactics to work here, so Maynard will need to use every trick in his arsenal if he wants to emerge victorious.
Miller's ground game is excellent, but he also possesses decent striking skills. While Maynard will likely be able to score takedowns, Miller's submissions will keep him honest. If this fight goes to the judges, Maynard will no doubt win a decision - albeit a boring one - but Miller will be looking for a stoppage from bell to bell.
Maynard's game is simply not dynamic enough to compete at the top levels yet, but his one-dimensional wrestling may be enough to defeat Miller. In this case, however, Miller's submission prowess should allow him to take the win. Prediction: Miller by Submission in round two.
The first fight on the undercard pits dangerous welterweight Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory against undefeated newcomer Ryan "The Lion" Madigan.
Simply put, this will be all McCrory from start to finish, and the fight won't go long. McCrory, at 6'4", is one of the tallest welterweights in the sport, and his well-rounded submissions and striking will ensure that he is a contender for years to come. He suffered a setback against Jiu-Jitsu ace Dustin Hazelett, but Madigan is simply out of his league here.
McCrory will take the fight to the mat and either finish with a submission or knock Madigan out with strikes. McCrory needs an impressive win to get back on track, and this will serve its purpose. Prediction: McCrory by Submission in round one.
The next fight holds a surprising amount of importance, as former TUF winner Kendall "Da Spyder" Grove takes on Canadian middleweight Jason "Dooms" Day.
If Grove loses this fight, he's out of the UFC. That much has been confirmed by UFC President Dana White. Grove's chin is horrible, but he'll come out with guns blazing in this fight, so Day will need to be wary of Grove's range and offence.
If this fight goes to the ground, it's fairly even, as both possess solid ground skills. However, what is more likely is that the bout will quickly develop into a brawl, and neither fighter is particularly good at taking big punches. Whichever fighter lands cleanly first will win.
Grove could definitely make a comeback with a knockout win in this fight, but this is Day's opportunity to show that he does belong in the UFC. If Day loses, he should be cut from the promotion as well. Prediction: Day by KO in round one.
Next up is a light heavyweight bout between Tim "The Barbarian" Boetsch and Jason "Hitman" Brilz, who has won nine straight fights.
Boetsch's explosive power and unorthodoxed kicks have made him a serious threat to the mid-level fighters in the light heavyweight division, but his cardio has failed him before and will do so again if this fight goes long. As such, his best chance is to score a quick knockout and move back up the ranks.
Brilz, despite being largely unknown, has a very impressive record and has competed against top fighters before. His ground game is excellent, but he can stand and trade strikes as well. He needs to weather the early storm from Boetsch and test Boetsch's cardio. In the later rounds, Brilz will take over with ground and pound.
Boetsch must develop more aspects of his game if he is to succeed, but he is still a tough challenge to anyone in round one. Here, though, it won't be enough. Prediction: Brilz by Submission in round three.
The next fight is another light heavyweight bout, as the struggling Brandon "The Truth" Vera looks to finally get back on the winning track when he takes on Michael Patt.
Vera claims that he is finally taking the sport and training seriously again. I'll believe that when I see it. Once claiming that he would simultaneously hold the UFC Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight titles, Vera is now one loss from finding employment elsewhere, as he has looked woefully out of sorts in his last four fights.
If the Vera that destroyed Frank Mir shows up, Patt is in for a short and painful night. If the recent Vera emerges once again, it will likely be the last time that UFC fans see him compete. While Patt is a legitimate threat, Vera does seem to be taking things seriously, and he will be looking for a quick and brutal knockout. Finally, the Brandon Vera of old may return. Prediction: Vera by KO in round one.
The final fight of the night is a lightweight showdown between the resurgent Aaron Riley and BJ Penn protégé "Sugar" Shane Nelson.
Riley has been on a roll since the end of 2007, while fighters training with Penn have not faired well at all. Coming off of an impressive victory over Jorge Gurgel, Riley will look to make it two straight in the UFC, in his return to the company.
Nelson has very little finishing ability, while Riley can both submit and knock opponents out with relative ease. Barring disaster, Riley should cruise to a second-round stoppage victory. Prediction: Riley by TKO in round two.
While certainly not a poor card, UFC 96 is heavily marred by the terrible matchmaking in Sell vs Brown, and fans should be spared from these meaningless bouts in the future. Hopefully, the remainder of the card will make up for it.
