UFC 93 Predictions
by Robert Sargent
The UFC's first venture into the Republic of Ireland is fast approaching, and MMARising.com looks over the card, which features a rematch between Mark Coleman and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and a battle between Rich Franklin and Dan Henderson.
The main card also features a promised stand-up war that has Fight of the Year potential between former boxers Chris "Lights Out" Lytle and "The Irish Hand Grenade" Marcus Davis.
Beginning with the night's main event, we have a long-awaited light heavyweight clash between former UFC Middleweight Champion Rich "Ace" Franklin and former PRIDE Middleweight (205 Pounds) and Welterweight (183 Pounds) Champion Dan "Hendo" Henderson.
The prevailing thought for this fight seems to be that, should he be able to make it out of the first round, Franklin has a very good chance of winning this bout. That is extremely true. If he can survive the early offensive - and, most importantly, the lethal right hand - from Henderson, his superior cardio could prove to be the deciding factor if the fight enters the second and third rounds.
For Henderson, he must look to land big shots early and often, as Franklin will try to push the pace as the fight wears on. Henderson's cardio, though generally more of an issue when he competes as a middleweight, might wind up being his downfall in this fight if he cannot finish Franklin in round one.
Though Henderson has the potential to end this years-in-the-making showdown at any time with a single overhand right, Franklin could just as easily pull off a submission. However, I think that this fight will go to the judges and Henderson will take a close but well-earned decision victory. Prediction: Henderson by Unanimous Decision.
Next up is a light heavyweight rematch from 2006 in PRIDE, as PRIDE 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix Champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua looks to avenge his loss from a fluke elbow injury when he takes on former UFC Heavyweight Champion Mark "The Hammer" Coleman for the second time.
This is Shogun's fight to lose, plain and simple. He is recovering from two knee surgeries and has not fought in well over a year. However, if he comes into the fight in shape - at least, in better shape than he did at UFC 76 - he should be able to overwhelm the 44-year-old Coleman rather easily. Coleman is well past his prime and has lost most of the explosivity that made him arguably the most feared ground and pound fighter until Fedor Emelianenko emerged on the scene.
The fight is Coleman's first venture down to 205 pounds, but his extensive wrestling background will likely make the weight cut much easier. However, if he does not come ready to fight for 15 minutes, Shogun can exploit that and use his speed and striking advantage to finish Coleman off at will.
Though Coleman will undoubtedly score a takedown in the opening minute, he will need to pin Shogun down or the fight will likely end quickly, with Coleman being woken up off of the ground by his Hammer House brethren. For his sake, Shogun needs to make a major impact in this fight. Prediction: Shogun by TKO in round one.
The next fight marks the much-talked-about UFC debut of 2006 DREAM Welterweight Grand Prix Runner-Up and current Spirit MC Heavyweight Champion Denis "Super Korean" Kang, as he takes on the always brash and cocky, Alan "The Talent" Belcher.
Like the Coleman-Rua bout, this is Kang's fight to lose. However, if his brief bout with Gegard Mousasi in DREAM is any indication, Kang could wind up being his worst enemy. Kang completely dominated the fight with Mousasi until he essentially put himself in a triangle choke with wayward hammerfist strikes, and was promptly submitted. In this fight, unless there's a repeat of that, Kang should absolutely destroy Belcher.
Belcher apparently believes that he is the greatest fighter ever, despite the fact that he was completely and utterly embarrassed by Jason Day last year and won an undeserved Split Decision over Ed Herman shortly thereafter. Nothing would make me happier in this fight than seeing Belcher suffer a first-round knockout that sent him tumbling from the UFC. He can showboat in the small shows around Mississippi. Prediction: Kang by TKO late in round one.
Next up is a middleweight submission battle between one of the UFC's true ground wizards, Rousimar "Toquinho" Palhares, and one of MMA's undisputed ironmen (along with 250-fight veteran Travis Fulton), Jeremy Horn, who has well over 100 fights in his career.
Basically no one is giving Horn any chance in this fight, as he was quickly submitted by both Nate Marquardt and Dean Lister in his last two fights and neither of those opponents (though both highly skilled) have ground games anywhere near the level of Palhares. On the other hand, Palhares, while currently ranked as one of the top three submission fighters in the UFC, has weak striking skills and Horn has vastly underrated kicks. Just ask Forrest Griffin, whom Horn KOed with a head kick back in 2003.
Horn's best bet in this fight, ironically, is to keep the fight standing as much as possible. If it goes to the ground, he will need to use his wealth of experience to escape an endless barrage of submissions. Though I would love to see a career resurgence from the always-game Horn, Palhares will likely submit him early in round one. Prediction: Palhares by Submission in round one.
The final main card fight is a welterweight slugfest between former professional boxers Chris "Lights Out" Lytle and "The Irish Hand Grenade" Marcus Davis, with both fighters promising to keep the fight standing for the duration.
Though both fighters possess knockout power, both also have very good chins and many years of experience in boxing and kickboxing. Neither fighter will make any crucial, fight-ending mistakes, but both will be looking for the Knockout of the Night. Davis was hurt by a big kick from Paul Taylor before he submitted Taylor at UFC 75, and Lytle has more than enough power to put Davis down for good. However, Lytle has arguably the best chin of any welterweight in the sport - if not one of the best, period - and Davis will have to land a home-run punch to knock the firefighter out.
Both Lytle and Davis have underrated ground games, with each actually having more wins by submission than by knockout (in Lytle's case, 17 submission wins versus four by knockout), but they have both promised to keep this fight on the feet until one falls down or until the final bell sounds. Knowing that, this fight is going to a decision. Knowing Lytle's atrocious track record with decisions (14 losses versus four wins), this one isn't going his way, whether he deserves the win or not. Prediction: Davis by Split Decision.
Moving to the undercard, we have a welterweight bout between Martin "The Hitman" Kampmann and Alexandre Baixinho" Barros.
This fight marks Kampmann's debut at 170 pounds, and he will be looking to make an immediate impact after his quick TKO loss to Nate Marquardt last year. Barros, while a complete unknown, has already competed against many of the sport's top welterweights, including Matt Hughes and Aaron Riley. However, he has come up short every time he has taken a step up in competition.
Kampmann will no doubt look to press the action early on, and should have little trouble overwhelming his opponent. Unless Barros can pull off something spectacular, Kampmann's welterweight debut should be a quick and successful one. Prediction: Kampmann by TKO in round one.
The next bout is a light heavyweight showdown between potential future contender Eric "Red" Schafer and the man who nearly KOed Thiago Silva in ten seconds, Antonio "Samuray" Mendes.
Schafer is widely known as one of the top submission fighters in the UFC's light heavyweight division, but his striking skills have also improved considerably over the past year. He will need all of that and more against Mendes, who, though he lost the fight, nearly knocked out unbeaten Thiago Silva in less than ten seconds. Schafer will be looking to take the fight to the ground, while Mendes will be seeking a highlight-reel KO.
While Mendes has the potential to turn Schafer's lights out early in the fight, Schafer is quickly becoming a veteran of the Octagon and is smart enough to pick his spots. Schafer will likely score an early takedown and lock on an arm-triangle choke or other submission. Prediction: Schafer by Submission in round one.
Next is another light heavyweight battle, pitting knockout artists Tomasz "Gorilla" Drwal and Ivan "Il Terribile" Serati against each other, in a fight that definitely won't make it out of round one.
Drwal's résumé is pretty simple. He's won 13 of his last 14 fights since he was defeated in his second career bout, with his only recent loss to unbeaten wrecking machine Thiago Silva. Of those 13 wins, eight have come by knockout or submission due to strikes. Similarly, Serati also has eight wins by knockout or submission due to strikes, and his lone defeats came to former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort and British star Marc Goddard.
The only thing that is certain in this bout is that someone is going to get hit hard and fall, and be woken up by the doctor minutes later. Given that Drwal will be looking to rebound in a big way after his loss to Silva, he will have the mental edge in this fight, and that should be enough. Prediction: Drwal by KO in round one.
The next fight is a lightweight contest between England's John "The Hitman" Hathaway and Ireland's own Tom "The Tank" Egan.
There's no question who the fan favourite will be in this bout, as the crowd will be solidly behind their hometown hero, Egan. However, with just three professional bouts coming into this fight, he is at a severe experience disadvantage to Hathaway, who is undefeated at 9-0.
Egan will put up a spirited effort in this fast-paced battle, spurred on by the cheers of the crowd, but Hathaway is simply too much for him. This will likely be one of the more lopsided fights of the evening, with Hathaway earning a first-round stoppage. Prediction: Hathaway by TKO or Submission in round one.
The final fight of the night pits Dennis Siver against Nate Mohr in a lightweight battle that will likely see the loser handed his walking papers.
Siver is 1-3 in the UFC, including a first-round blitzing defeat at the hands of Melvin Guillard, but managed to get a win in a smaller show last October. Mohr is 1-2 in the UFC and hasn't competed since having his knee ripped to shreds by a Manny Gamburyan Achilles Lock at UFC 79 over a year ago. Needless to say, this fight means absolutely nothing.
Mohr will probably adopt a tentative approach in round one as he gauges how his knee wil fare, while Siver needs to come out with guns blazing if he's going to have any hope of ever competing inside the Octagon again. As a result, Siver will land a big strike that sends Mohr reeling, and Mohr won't be able to recover. Prediction: Siver by TKO in round two.
Though the card lacks title fights and features a mediocre undercard, UFC 93 has the potential to be one of the better events that the UFC has put on east of the Atlantic, but only time will tell how the debut in the Republic of Ireland turns out.
