UFC 103: "Franklin vs Belfort" Predictions
by Robert Sargent
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Texas with a massive 13-fight card at UFC 103. MMARising.com breaks down the solid card, which is headlined by a catchweight bout between Rich "Ace" Franklin and Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort.
In the co-main event, knockout artists Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipović and Junior "Cigano" dos Santos square off to determine who climbs further up the ranks.
The main event of the evening is a 195-pound catchweight bout between former UFC Middleweight Champion Rich "Ace" Franklin and former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort.
This marks Belfort's return to the UFC after over four and a half years away. He is a much different fighter from the young "phenom" who made headlines in early UFC events, but most would agree that Belfort's added maturity and respect for the sport have made him a much better fighter. That bodes very poorly for Franklin, who is stuck between weight classes and seems destined to be a gatekeeper for the remainder of his career.
Franklin has decent speed and punching power and uses effective combinations to keep his opponents off-balance. That will not work here. Belfort hits way too hard and way too fast for the comparatively slow Franklin to keep up, which will force Franklin to scramble and look for a takedown. Franklin's game plan is always to stand and trade strikes and that is a terrible tactic for facing Belfort, whose boxing is among the best of anyone in MMA.
Franklin absolutely must get this fight to the ground so that he can try to wear Belfort out with strikes from the top, but I don't see that happening. While Franklin's a durable fighter, Anderson Silva twice made short work of him and Belfort will repeat that here. A flurry of punches from Belfort will drop Franklin at some point in round one and the fight will be all over soon after. Prediction: Belfort by TKO in round one.
The co-main event pits former PRIDE star Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipović against surging Brazilian contender Junior "Cigano" dos Santos.
Filipović has struggled badly since winning the 2006 PRIDE Open-Weight Grand Prix. Gone are his highlight-reel head-kick knockouts. In their place is a timid version of the feared striker who destroyed nearly everyone in PRIDE. Filipović desperately needs a big win here in order to entertain thoughts of a future title fight, but it's not going to happen.
There's still very little known about dos Santos other than that he's a protégé of former UFC Interim and PRIDE Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and that he hits very hard. Dos Santos seems poised to make a run up the heavyweight ranks and a victory over Filipović would vault him near the top.
The easy prediction here is Filipović by knockout, but I just can't see that happening. Dos Santos may struggle against the very top of the division, but he will get his chance to compete among them after he once again shocks the world and turns Filipović's lights off early in the first round. Filipović has rarely been successful against opponents who push the pace and this will be no different. Prediction: Dos Santos by KO in round one.
Next up on the main card is a welterweight battle between Martin "The Hitman" Kampmann and British knockout artist Paul "Semtex" Daley.
Daley is a late-replacement in this fight after Kampmann's original opponent, Mike Swick, withdrew due to injury. In some ways, this makes for an easier fight for Kampmann, but in one big way, it makes for a much tougher test.
Daley's ground game is sorely lacking and he has lost the majority of his fights by submission. Though his wrestling has improved considerably, Daley has little hope if the fight goes to the ground and stays there. However, he is arguably the hardest hitter of anyone in the sport's welterweight division and has the ability to knock anyone out with a single punch.
Kampmann has said that he will stand and strike with Daley for as long as he feels necessary, but history has shown that that never ends well for Daley's opponents. Daley has stopped numerous fighters with strikes who had never been stopped before, including Kampmann's teammate John Alessio. Kampmann absolutely must get this fight to the ground or it's lights out.
This is an extremely difficult fight to call because it depends entirely on which strategy Kampmann employs and whether he can get Daley down and keep him there. However, Daley will make the most of this opportunity and will pick up a highlight-reel knockout that puts him one step closer to a showdown with UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre. Prediction: Daley by KO in round one.
The next fight is another welterweight bout, as former contender Josh Koscheck faces former two-time title challenger Frank "Twinkle Toes" Trigg.
This will be Trigg's first fight in the UFC since his loss to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 54 over four years ago. However, he has matured considerably since then and is no longer the cocky, arrogant and overconfident fighter that he was then. He has lost just twice since that time, to high-level opponents Carlos Condit and Robbie Lawler, and is looking to capture the UFC Welterweight Championship that twice eluded him in the past.
Koscheck is the overwhelming favourite in this fight and will probably pull off the win, but he has recently acted much the same way as Trigg used to and has paid dearly for it. He made a critical error in taking his UFC 95 fight with UFC newcomer Paulo Thiago lightly and was promptly knocked out in the first round. The loss sent Koscheck tumbling down the welterweight ranks and he will need a convincing win here if he is to ever make another run to the top.
However, Trigg will play spoiler in this fight and shock Koscheck. Trigg may never become a champion in the UFC, but he appears to be firmly dedicated to putting on great fights to cement his legacy as one of the best. An upset win over Koscheck will do wonders. Prediction: Trigg by TKO late in round one.
Next is a lightweight bout between top contender Tyson Griffin and former title challenger Hermes "The Unreal" Franca.
I am not certain when Franca adopted his new nickname, but it's awful. The only thing "unreal" about this fight will be Franca's chances of winning.
Griffin won his first eight fights by stoppage, but has since become the king of decisions and appears to have zero stopping power against any credible opponents. Franca, on the other hand, has vicious knockout power and excellent submissions, but struggles horribly against wrestlers. Griffin is a wrestler. Hence, Griffin wins the fight.
Whether Griffin can finally put on a fight that actually suggests that he could ever be championship material, however, remains a mystery. It's unlikely to happen here because Franca is very durable and won't be submitted, but Griffin will do enough to take a clear-cut - albeit boring - decision win. Prediction: Griffin by Unanimous Decision.
The next fight is a much more exciting lightweight bout that pits undefeated TUF 8 winner Efrain "Hecho en México" Escudero against rising star Cole "Magrinho" Miller.
Unlike Tyson Griffin and his complete lack of finishing ability, both Escudero and Miller have stopped all but two of their respective opponents. Both are submission specialists and this fight will likely go to the ground quickly. Miller is better off of his back than Escudero is, but Escudero's ground game is superb and it will take a lot to trap him.
This is really a case where the fighters' styles could cancel the other out and the fight could very easily go to a decision as a result. However, Miller will hand Escudero his first defeat with a shocking submission from his back in this fight and will move one big step up the ranks in the competitive lightweight division. Prediction: Miller by Submission in round two.
Moving on, we have a middleweight bout between heavy hitters Drew "The Massacre" McFedries and Tomasz "Gorilla" Drwal.
McFedries has absolutely zero ground game and makes no secret of the fact that he will lose every fight that doesn't remain on the feet. Drwal also prefers to stand and trade, but he has a reasonable ground game to go along with his knockout power.
The smart strategy would be for Drwal to simply take McFedries down and submit him in 30 seconds, but pride will likely get in the way and Drwal will keep it standing. However, unlike with some past opponents of McFedries, that will not work in McFedries's favour. Look for Drwal to add McFedries as another name on his list of knockout victims. Prediction: Drwal by TKO in round one.
Next is a lightweight bout between submission ace Jim Miller and the debuting Steve Lopez.
Lopez has amassed a solid record and his lone career defeat came via Split Decision. However, he's in way over his head against Miller and this will not be the UFC debut that Lopez was hoping for.
Miller may keep the fight standing for a bit, but he will take Lopez down at some point and secure the inevitable fight-ending submission soon after. Miller is simply too much for Lopez at this stage in his career. Prediction: Miller by Submission in round one.
The next fight is an intriguing lightweight fight between Rafaello "Tractor" Oliveira and Nik "The Carny" Lentz.
While both are making their UFC debuts, Oliveira has already competed on a larger stage at a ShoXC event late last year and Lentz recently picked up a victory over much-maligned former UFC star Drew Fickett (Fickett's career is currently in a downward spiral as he battles alcoholism, but he's making progress and we wish him the very best).
Both fighters are very well-rounded, with each possessing decent striking power and solid submission skills. It will be very interesting to see where the fight goes and which fighter holds the advantage. Most likely, this will become a stalemate that goes to a decision, with Lentz barely coming out on top. Prediction: Lentz by Split Decision.
Next up, we have a welterweight showdown between Ricky "The Horror" Story and the debuting Brian Foster.
Foster has yet to go to a decision in 15 career fights and has a near-equal number of victories by knockout and submission, including a five-second KO win from earlier this year. Story is best remembered for losing a lopsided Unanimous Decision to John "The Hitman" Hathaway in his UFC debut.
For as much as I do not care for anyone associated with the disgraceful Matt Hughes, Foster is one of the top talents in Hughes's H.I.T. Squad right now and he will steamroll Story with a first-round stoppage. Story will then exit stage right and likely won't be seen in the UFC again. Prediction: Foster by KO in round one.
Moving on, yet another "Hitman" will be in competition when Eliot "The Fire" Marshall faces Jason "Hitman" Brilz.
People need to be more creative with nicknames. Just saying.
Marshall has been impressive since his time on The Ultimate Fighter and his victory over Vinny Magalhães was a big one for his career. However, his luck runs out against Brilz, who has already competed against (and defeated) a number of big names in the sport and could potentially rise to title contender status someday if he continues to string together impressive wins.
Of Brilz's 17 victories, 14 have come inside the distance and he has been defeated just once. Marshall is good, but Brilz is a step better in just about every aspect and that will show once the bell rings. Prediction: Brilz by TKO in round one.
The next fight is a light heavyweight bout between the returning Vladimir "The Janitor" Matyushenko and the debuting Igor Pokrajac.
Matyushenko, the first and only IFL Light Heavyweight Champion and a former UFC Heavyweight title challenger, finally returns to the UFC after just days shy of six full years away from the promotion. He is coming off of a decision victory over UFC veteran Jason Lambert from earlier this year.
Pokrajac is a member of Cro Cop's team and is predictably known for his striking and knockout power. He has won eight straight fights and 18 of his 21 victories have come by stoppage. He will make an example of Matyushenko by upsetting the talented wrestler via first-round knockout. Matyushenko will stick around and beat most challengers, but he has consistently struggled against heavy hitters and this will be another example of that. Prediction: Pokrajac by TKO in round one.
At long last, the final fight of the evening pits Rob "The Saint" Emerson against Rafael dos Anjos in a lightweight contest.
This card drags on forever and this final fight holds little meaning. Dos Anjos was arguably robbed of a decision in his fight with Tyson Griffin and was handily winning his bout with Jeremy Stephens before one punch ended his night. In short, his luck in the UFC has been non-existent.
Unfortunately for him, he's matched up against one of the luckiest fighters in the UFC, as Emerson has been on the receiving end of questionable decisions (Keita Nakamura) and fortunate fight endings (Gray Maynard's self-KO comes to mind). That's not going to be enough for Emerson here, though, as dos Anjos finally breaks the curse and picks up a much-needed win. Prediction: Dos Anjos by Unanimous Decision.
With a seemingly endless card, UFC 103 is sure to provide hours of entertainment for the fans, but most of the attention will be focused squarely on the pivotal final two bouts of the evening.
