UFC 102: "Couture vs Nogueira" Predictions
by Robert Sargent & Mike Miller
The Ultimate Fighting Championship comes to Portland, Oregon for the first time tomorrow night at UFC 102: "Couture vs Nogueira," and MMARising.com looks over the card, which pits two legends against each other in the main event.
Also on the event's main card, "The Dean of Mean" Keith Jardine squares off with Brazilian knockout artist Thiago Silva in a pivotal light heavyweight bout.
Rob: Beginning with the main event, we have a heavyweight battle between two battle-tested legends, as former UFC Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight Champion Randy "The Natural" Couture takes on former PRIDE Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira.
Mike: This fight between two legends should have happened a couple of years ago when both men were in their prime. However, this fight still holds a lot of merit for both fighters. A lot of questions have been raised about Nog's chin and his overall physical condition and he will have to answer them. Even though he was suffering from injuries and a bad staph infection, Nog looked awkward and out of place against Mir. On the other hand, Couture got run over by a younger, stronger and bigger man in Brock Lesnar. So, this fight all depends on what condition Nog is in.
Rob: I agree. From what we've seen over the past two days, Nogueira looks to be in phenomenal condition, so this will hopefully be somewhat of a return to his glory days of 2005 and beyond. He showed that he still has the skills to submit solid competition when he choked out Tim Sylvia in their fight, but he needs to be wary of taking too much punishment on the ground from Couture. However, even if Nogueira's chin isn't granite anymore, Couture doesn't hit anywhere near as hard as Fedor Emelianenko and Emelianenko couldn't stop Nogueira with some of the most brutal ground and pound ever. Prediction: Nogueira by Submission late in round one.
Mike: I think that Nog will be in good condition and will be well-prepared mentally and physically, and he will submit Couture in the second round. Prediction: Nogueira by Submission in round two.
Rob: The co-main event of the evening is a light heavyweight bout between two fighters who desperately need a big victory, as "The Dean of Mean" Keith Jardine faces Thiago Silva.
Mike: Silva versus Jardine is going to be a matchup that no one will want to miss. Both fighters always bring it, whether in defeat or victory, and they are always exciting. Jardine just lost a war against Quinton Jackson and Silva was highlight-reel KOed by Machida the Machine. Neither fighter is in immediate danger of being dropped if they lose, but neither will be calm and tentative. However, when the bombs start landing, I see Silva still standing.
Rob: Both fighters have questionable chins, but Jardine's has held up more often than not. Silva's nearly failed him mere seconds into his fight with Antonio Mendes and he looked pretty bad against Tomasz Drwal as well. While it's easy to go with a Silva win by KO here, Greg Jackson is a genius at creating effective game plans and I am sure that he will have a good one for dealing with Silva. As a result, I see Jardine making it through round one and knocking Silva out with one of his crazy unorthodox punches in the second round. Prediction: Jardine by KO in round two.
Mike: Silva walked through a direct head kick and has taken beatings before. Jardine has shown he is susceptible to quick pressure and heavy punches, which is exactly what Silva brings. Prediction: Silva by TKO in round one.
Rob: Next up is a middleweight bout between the returning Chris "The Crippler" Leben and wrestling standout Jake Rosholt.
Mike: No idea what this fight is doing on the main card. Leben is a fan favorite, but still. I see this either ending via extremely boring lay and pray from Rosholt or by flash knockout from Leben's brick punches hitting home.
Rob: I'm in agreement with UFC President Dana White that Leben has been punished enough for his positive test for steroids, but this fight still has no business being on the main card of a pay-per-view. Rosholt was destroyed by Dan Miller in February and his UFC tenure will come to an end here. Leben might be tentative for the first minute, but Rosholt will quickly find himself on the defensive and will be unconscious on the ground soon after. Prediction: Leben by KO in round one.
Mike: With his increased focus and drive (and steroids!), Leben wins this by KO in round 2. Prediction: Leben by KO in round two.
Rob: The next fight is a highly-anticipated middleweight showdown between former title challenger Nate "The Great" Marquardt and undefeated submission phenom Demian Maia.
Mike: This fight hinges entirely on whether or not Maia can take the fight to the ground. Marquardt's stand-up has become more crisp and impressive with every bout and Maia's striking is still untested. Nate says that he can hang with Maia on the ground, but even a casual fan should know that that is far from the truth. Maia is one of the best (maybe the best) in the world and he makes submitting other UFC fighters look like he is simply practicing.
Rob: Marquardt is definitely no slouch on the ground, but he's dreaming if he thinks that he can survive there for long with Maia looking to secure every submission in the book (plus some we've never even heard of). If Maia isn't the top submission fighter in MMA right now, he's easily among the top three. Marquardt could score a knockout victory here, which is pretty much his only chance, but Maia should be able to score a takedown at some point. After that, it's academic. Prediction: Maia by Submission late in round one.
Mike: Given the fact that Maia took down Sonnen with such ease, I would think that he can take down "The Great." Prediction: Maia by Submission in round two.
Rob: The final main card bout pits light heavyweights Brandon "The Truth" Vera and "The Polish Experiment" Krzysztof Soszynski against each other in an interesting matchup.
Mike: This fight seems like it will be a walk-through for Soszynski, as he is riding a six-fight winning streak, with three of those wins inside the Octagon and none going the distance. Vera was the former "future" of the heavyweight division, but he has become a fallen angel as of late and is trying to return to his former glory.
Rob: Three years ago, anyone with even basic knowledge of the sport would predict a quick KO victory for Vera in this matchup. However, a lot has changed since then and Vera is no longer the feared striker that he once was. Though he completely destroyed Michael Patt at UFC 96, Vera looked to be extremely drawn-out and his ribs were protruding significantly. I am not sure if 205 is really the best weight for him, but we'll see what shape he is in for this one. This fight is a tough call, but Vera's chin is better than Soszynski's and that's probably going to wind up as the deciding factor. Prediction: Vera by TKO in round two.
Mike: With an unimpressive win over Reese Andy and a gimme fight against Mike Patt, "The Truth" has a ways to go to regain his lost ground. In the end, though, I see Vera winning this in unimpressive fashion. Prediction: Vera by Unanimous Decision.
Rob: The first undercard fight is a middleweight bout between Ed "Short Fuse" Herman and undefeated knockout artist Aaron "A-Train" Simpson.
Mike: Simpson by Unanimous Decision.
Rob: Simpson's five victories have all come by knockout, including his UFC debut against Tim McKenzie at UFC Fight Night 18. Herman has been one step away from eviction from the UFC for years now. I feel bad that he was mercilessly robbed in his fight with Alan Belcher, but this will be Herman's final UFC appearance. Prediction: Simpson by KO in round one.
Rob: Next is a heavyweight contest between former title challenger Gabriel "Napćo" Gonzaga and UFC debutant Chris "The Crowbar" Tuchscherer.
Mike: Tuchscherer by TKO in round two.
Rob: Casual fans will assume that Gonzaga is being fed a can, but they will be in for a shock. Tuchscherer has a significant following among MMA insiders and most are predicting him to handily dispatch of Gonzaga in this one. Tuchscherer's lone career defeat (he is 17-1-0, 1 NC) came in the finals of the one-night YAMMA Heavyweight Tournament last April. Gonzaga has a one-way ticket to the bottom of the division, if he sticks around at all. Prediction: Tuchscherer by TKO in round one.
Rob: Moving on, we have another heavyweight bout between Justin "The Nsane1" McCully and Mike Russow, who is making his long-awaited UFC debut.
Mike: Russow by whatever he wants, whenever he wants.
Rob: McCully has somehow managed to alter the spelling of his nickname to an even more annoying variation than the previous incarnations. Just terrible. Fortunately, he'll be gone after this and we won't have to endure it any longer. Russow may not quite be on the level to challenge for title gold, but he is an excellent fighter and this fight is all his. Prediction: Russow by Submission in round one.
Rob: Next is yet another heavyweight tilt, as giants Tim "The Thrashing Machine" Hague and Todd Duffee square off.
Mike: Duffee by TKO in round one.
Rob: Hague definitely won me over with his fight against Pat Barry at UFC 98, but Duffee simply hits too hard for the "gentle giant" to overcome. Among Duffee's knockout victories is a stoppage of former UFC and PRIDE fighter Assuerio Silva, who is not easy to finish. Duffee will start out strong like Barry did, but he won't make the same mistakes and will stop Hague inside of one round. Prediction: Duffee by TKO in round one.
Rob: Next up, we have a middleweight bout between Nick Catone and "The Filipino Wrecking Machine" Mark Munoz, who is making his debut at 185.
Mike: Munoz by Unanimous Decision.
Rob: Both of these fighters are coming off of losses, but Catone's submission defeat at the hands of Tim Credeur was much less dramatic than the brutal head-kick knockout that Munoz suffered against Matt Hamill. This one will start out slowly, but Munoz will eventually get the fight to the ground and finish it with punches from the top. Prediction: Munoz by TKO in round two.
Rob: The final fight on the card features the return of Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio, as he takes on the undefeated Evan Dunham in a lightweight bout.
Mike: Aurelio by Submission in round two.
Rob: I am glad to see Aurelio back in the UFC and I hope that he can do better this time around. He was thrown in against a bunch of wrestlers last time, so maybe they can match him up against some strikers or fellow submission fighters after this fight. Dunham is undefeated, trains with Xtreme Couture and has finished all but one of his fights. However, that won't be enough to defeat Aurelio, and Dunham will have to deal with a 1 in his loss column. Prediction: Aurelio by Submission in round one.
Though the main event and the fight between Marquardt and Maia are the primary reasons to watch this event, that alone is enough to warrant tuning in tomorrow night for UFC 102.
