UFC 101: "Declaration" Predictions
by Robert Sargent
The Ultimate Fighting Championship invades the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania tonight for UFC 101: "Declaration," which is headlined by a UFC Lightweight Championship bout between BJ Penn and Kenny Florian.
MMARising.com looks over the card, which also features a light heavyweight bout between former champion Forrest Griffin and UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva.
Beginning with the highly-anticipated main event, we have a UFC Lightweight Championship bout between champion "The Prodigy" BJ Penn and challenger Kenny "KenFlo" Florian.
Florian claims that he gets better with each passing fight. Is that true? Absolutely. Will it be enough to dethrone Penn, who hasn't lost at lightweight since his return to the division? Doubtful.
While Florian is a well-rounded fighter who will be around for years to come, this is Penn's do-or-die fight and he knows it. If he slips up and loses to Florian, it could be the end for the ultra-talented Hawaiian. His recent loss to UFC Welterweight Champion Georges "Rush" St. Pierre at 170 pounds demonstrated that Penn likely won't be able to return to the welterweight division, but that won't stop him from continuing to dominate at 155.
The reality here is that this fight will be decided on which Penn shows up. If his past three lightweight bouts are any indication, Florian is in for a long - or, rather, a short and painful - night. Penn is one of the most dynamic and gifted athletes in all of mixed martial arts and his skills will simply overwhelm Florian. The first round of this fight will be close and Florian may even win it if he can stay on the outside and throw varied kicks, but round two will spell the end of his second quest to become champion. Prediction: Penn by TKO in round two.
The co-main event of the evening is a light heavyweight contest between former champion Forrest Griffin and current UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson "The Spider" Silva.
Since the moment that this fight was first announced, I have repeatedly stated that Silva has nothing to gain from this fight and a tremendous amount to lose. Even though he is coming up in weight, a loss to Griffin would be akin to a bomb going off on Silva's career.
Silva's last two bouts have left a lot to be desired, and many are questioning his heart and dedication to the sport. He seems to be more focused on challenging professional boxers than defending his title at the moment, but this light heavyweight bout is a completely different story.
Griffin has very little to lose in this fight and everything to gain - if this sounds familiar, refer to his fights with Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson - with a victory. He is bigger than Silva and usually follows intelligent game plans to defeat opponents. He will need a great plan to defeat Silva, but I see it happening.
Silva will probably try to toy with Griffin early on, and may very well knock the former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion out. Is that outcome likely? Absolutely. However, betting against Griffin in these superfights has become almost a sure way to induce ridicule, as he repeatedly defies the odds and comes out on top. Now that I'm supporting him, he will naturally lose spectacularly, but I will take the upset nonetheless. Prediction: Griffin by Unanimous Decision.
Next up is a welterweight showdown - at long last - between The Ultimate Fighter Season 7 winner Amir Sadollah and former WEC star Johny Hendricks.
Sadollah and Hendricks have been teammates for quite some time, so Hendricks has seen first-hand what Sadollah has had to go through since winning TUF 7. A particularly bad staph infection and a broken clavicle sidelined Sadollah from two previously scheduled bouts after his submission win over CB Dollaway.
The big questions here are whether the long layoff will have an effect on Sadollah and how well both fighters will acclimate to competing as welterweights. The fact that they are teammates also factors into the fight, but Sadollah is well beyond hungry to get back into the cage and he will be looking for a quick and dominant finish.
Hendricks has looked impressive in his past bouts, including a win over "The Russian Crusher" Alex Serdyukov at WEC 39 in March. However, that won't be enough here because Sadollah has been training like a madman to get back to competition and Hendricks is going to be his first victim. While Sadollah has a long way to go before he'll be a contender, this will be a long overdue first step. Prediction: Sadollah by Submission in round one.
The next fight is a pivotal middleweight showdown between The Ultimate Fighter Season 3 winner Kendall "Da Spyder" Grove and former top-ranked star Ricardo "Big Dog" Almeida.
This fight has "Loser Leaves Town" written all over it. Grove was already expected to be fired if he'd lost to Jason Day at UFC 96, but he demolished Day and remained employed. Almeida has had a rocky return to the UFC after a lengthy break from the sport, but a loss here doesn't guarantee that he'll be given his walking papers. He's an incredibly talented fighter, but seems to have lost the explosive takedowns and lightning-fast submissions that made him a star in 2003.
Grove's best - and likely only - chance here is to keep the fight standing and use his significant reach advantage to try to score a knockout. He is no slouch on the ground, but Almeida is a world-class technician when the fight hits the mat and Grove would be well-served to avoid Almeida's vast array of submissions.
While Grove will hold an early advantage in the striking, Almeida will score the inevitable takedown and secure some sort of highlight-reel submission that finally sends Grove packing. Prediction: Almeida by Submission late in round one.
The final main card fight is a lightweight battle between Josh "The Dentist" Neer and Kurt "Batman" Pellegrino.
Both fighters have scored impressive wins in their last few fights after both were defeated by Nate Diaz. Neer arguably should have won his bout with Diaz, while Pellegrino was submitted in the second round.
This fight will determine which fighter takes a step up the lightweight ladder to get closer to a title eliminator bout down the line. Pellegrino is excellent on the ground, but possesses decent striking abilities as well. Neer is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the UFC's lightweight division and has the ability to finish the fight by knockout or submission at any time. He has worked diligently on his Jiu-Jitsu in the past two years.
Pellegrino does have a future in the promotion if he can continue to string together some solid wins, but this is not his night. Neer is simply too good and too determined to make a legitimate run at the title. Pellegrino will make the mistake of keeping this fight standing for too long and Neer will make him pay dearly. Prediction: Neer by TKO in round two.
The first undercard fight pits lightweights "Sugar" Shane Nelson and Aaron Riley against each other again in a rematch from their disastrous meeting at UFC 96.
The ending to the pair's first fight at UFC 96 was quite possibly the single worst referee stoppage in mixed martial arts history. While other recent gaffes by officials have received more attention, the complete farce at UFC 96 takes the cake.
In that fight, Nelson had knocked Riley down with a punch early on. Riley rolled and trapped Nelson in his guard as Nelson landed glancing punches from the top. The inexperienced referee then stopped the fight as a baffled Riley stood up and wondered what had just happened.
A repeat of that will not happen here. Riley now has something to prove and is understandably annoyed after the ending of the first fight. He will come out throwing bombs at Nelson and one of them will find the target. Prediction: Riley by KO in round one.
Moving on, we have a welterweight fight between the gigantic Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory and John "Doomsday" Howard.
Unfortunately for Howard, his name pretty much sums up what today is going to be for him. McCrory, who is easily the tallest welterweight in the UFC, can win this fight by pretty much any method that he chooses. Howard might be able to take McCrory down, but he won't be able to do anything after that. McCrory, though his striking does still need some work, could knock Howard out or wrap his ridiculously long limbs around Howard and secure some sort of submission.
Either way, this one isn't going Howard's way, but we can all hope that McCrory is finally given some decent entrance music by UFC President Dana White. Or, failing that, he may have to make fun of White in another post-fight speech. Prediction: McCrory by TKO or Submission in round one.
Next is a middleweight bout between former title challenger Thales Leites and the boxer with no chin, Alessio "Legionarius" Sakara.
Fortunately for Sakara, it is unlikely that Leites will be testing his chin in this fight. Leites knows that he's in hot water after his horrible performance against Anderson Silva and he's going to take out his frustrations on the one-dimensional Sakara. Unless Sakara can score a very early knockout, he has no shot in this fight at all.
It's been said that the loser of this fight will likely be cut from the UFC, and Leites will be doing everything in his power to ensure that that isn't him. In doing so, he will submit Sakara early in this fight and look to regain his standing among the elite in the division. Prediction: Leites by Submission in round one.
The next fight is a very interesting one, as undefeated TUF alums Matt Riddle and Dan Cramer square off in a welterweight fight to determine which one has a future as a potential contender.
Very few battles between ex-TUF competitors hold much merit, but this is a rare exception. Both fighters have very bright futures in the sport and may very well challenge for titles at some point down the road. This fight is here to determine which one will take the big step forward first. It's a very tough fight to pick a winner, as both have a very good chance of emerging victorious. However, this one will go Riddle's way as he grinds out an entertaining decision win. Prediction: Riddle by Unanimous Decision.
Next up is a lightweight bout between George Roop and late-replacement George Sotiropoulos.
Roop was very lucky to escape with a razor-thin win over "Diamond" Dave Kaplan at UFC 98. His luck runs out against Sotiropoulos, who enters this fight on short notice after being away from competition for over a year. The ring rust will be evident early in this fight, but Sotiropoulos will settle down and get the fight to the ground. Once that happens, the finish is academic, as Roop will soon be tapping his way out of the UFC. Prediction: Sotiropoulos by Submission in round two.
The final fight on the card is a welterweight contest between former IFL and WEC competitors Jesse "The Ox" Lennox and Danillo "Indio" Villefort.
Lennox has never gone the distance in his career and has an equal number of wins by knockout and submission. Villefort is excellent on the ground and does possess solid power as well, but his chin is suspect and Lennox will test it early and often. This fight is very interesting because both fighters' main weaknesses match up perfectly with the strengths of their opponent. Villefort has impressive leglock submissions and Lennox's lone loss came via kneebar. Villefort has a questionable chin and Lennox possesses serious knockout power.
If Lennox can keep this fight standing, he's got this. If he can't, his leg will be hurting tomorrow. This is really a toss-up, but Lennox should be able to score a knockout before Villefort can successfully lock on any submissions. Prediction: Lennox by KO in round one.
With the UFC Lightweight Championship on the line in the main event and pride and glory up for grabs in the bout between Anderson Silva and Forrest Griffin, fans should be treated to an entertaining night of fights at UFC 101.
