UFC 100 Predictions
by Robert Sargent
At long last, the Ultimate Fighting Championship's historic UFC 100 event is upon us, and MMARising.com looks over the impressive card, which is headlined by a rematch for the UFC Heavyweight Championship between Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir.
The co-main event of the evening is a UFC Welterweight Championship showdown between champion Georges "Rush" St. Pierre and challenger Thiago "Pitbull" Alves.
Beginning with the main event, which should really be the co-main event, we have a UFC Undisputed Heavyweight Championship bout between current champion Brock Lesnar and Interim Champion Frank Mir.
Not being a fan of either of these individuals, it's difficult to back either one of them in this fight. Mir is far too cocky for his own good, but having a 3-1 Lesnar as the Heavyweight Champion is a blemish on the sport. Especially given the fact that he should never have received a title fight in the first place.
Mir got here by defeating Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira, who had entered their fight with severe knee injuries and a very bad staph infection. The fact that Nogueira even competed in the fight was a testament to his unwavering heart. Mir put on a very impressive display and became the first fighter to ever stop Nogueira, and his post-fight speech was one of class and inspiration.
However, when it became clear that the Nogueira whom Mir had defeated was an injured shell of the fighter that he normally is, Mir chose to take the approach of acting as if Nogueira's troubles had no impact on the fight whatsoever. While that is a point for debate, if any fighter should be cognisant of the trials and tribulations that others face with injuries (having returned to competition after a brutal motorcycle accident), it is Mir. Not so, however.
In the other corner, we have Lesnar, who reached this fight by dispatching of a much smaller and older Randy "The Natural" Couture, who hadn't fought in 15 months. Because of his size and strength, Lesnar apparently believes that he is now unbeatable and discredits most of the other fighters in the division. He should consider himself lucky that he received a chance to compete for the title that he now wears, as he certainly did not deserve it.
As for the fight itself, everyone knows how their first encounter played out. Lesnar dominated Mir in the opening minute until a questionable stoppage and point deduction from referee Steve Mazzagatti. Lesnar returned to punishing Mir with strikes, then made a key error and found himself tapping to a kneebar. Will that repeat itself here? Possibly.
Mir's plan to keep this fight standing is an incredibly stupid one, as Lesnar - even with his unrefined striking - hits very hard. Even though Mir has clearly worked diligently on his striking, he cannot compete with the power that Lesnar possesses. On the ground, Mir has a tremendous advantage, but he cannot stay on his back for long or Lesnar will finish him with punches. While Lesnar is the overwhelming favourite to win this rematch, here's hoping that Mir wins the Battle of the Egos so that his victory over Nogueira actually means something. Ideally, neither of these individuals will possess gold for long. Prediction: Mir by Submission in round one.
The next fight really should be the main event, as Georges "Rush" St. Pierre defends his title against Thiago "Pitbull" Alves in a UFC Welterweight Championship tilt.
Contrary to the heavyweight main event, this fight features two fighters who deserve every bit of the success that they currently hold. St. Pierre has quickly established himself as the top welterweight in the world, while Alves has racked up a series of impressive victories to solidify his spot at number two. Unlike in the main event, where the two combatants are barely in the top five, St. Pierre and Alves are unquestionably the #1 and #2 welterweights in the world.
St. Pierre had to battle back after his shocking loss to Matt "The Terror" Serra at UFC 69, but he has done so in impressive fashion by dispatching of all challengers (including Serra). Similarly, Alves had to fight his way back into contention after losing to Jon Fitch, but he has scored seven straight victories over many of the same opponents who have challenged St. Pierre.
St. Pierre needs to be smart in this fight, and that means taking the fight to the ground and keeping it there. Alves's takedown defence is infinitely better than it was two years ago, but St. Pierre's takedowns are about as good as it gets. Serra's victory over St. Pierre might have been a one-in-100 win, but it showed that St. Pierre is not impervious to damage. Alves hits a lot harder than Serra does, and is also much larger and stronger, and he could definitely turn St. Pierre's lights off with a devastating strike.
St. Pierre is expected to retain his title here, and go on to defend it with ease in the coming years. However, as I have been saying for quite some time, Alves's power is too great to overlook. St. Pierre will undoubtedly score a takedown in round one and will likely control most of it. However, Alves will come back strong in round two and shock the world with a big knee or a combination of power punches that sends St. Pierre crashing to the mat. The time is now for Alves. Prediction: Alves by KO in round two.
The next fight on the card is a middleweight showdown between TUF Season 9 coaches Dan "Hendo" Henderson and Michael "The Count" Bisping.
Bisping has been steadfast in his claims that he is going to become the first man to knock Henderson out. Could it happen? Sure, but Bisping definitely does not possess one-punch knockout power and Henderson has taken the best shots from many of the top middleweights, light heavyweights and even heavyweights in the sport. He has walked through all of them.
Bisping can absolutely win the striking exchanges, however, if he uses quick combinations and tricky footwork that keeps Henderson guessing. However, Bisping's best chance in this fight is to drag out a decision as Henderson begins to tire. Competing strike for strike with Henderson is akin to slamming your head against the side of a building and wondering why it doesn't fall down. It's not a smart strategy.
Bisping will come into this fight super amped up, as usual, and he will likely hold an advantage early on. However, just as quickly as he thinks that things are going his way, Bisping will eat an overhand right from Henderson and will find himself scrambling to remain conscious. Henderson will finish him off and prove, once and for all, that the Bisping hype machine is over. Prediction: Henderson by KO late in round one.
Next up is a welterweight bout between former title challenger Jon Fitch and newcomer Paulo Thiago, who is coming off of a shocking knockout victory over Josh Koscheck.
While it is easy to think that Thiago will come into this fight and floor Fitch the same way that he did with Koscheck, one must remember that Thiago's striking looked awful before he landed the uppercut, hook combination that sent Koscheck tumbling down the welterweight ranks. Thiago's strength is his submission game, and his best hope here is to trap Fitch in a triangle or armbar from the bottom.
Fitch needs to do what he always does, which is take his opponent down and grind out a dominant victory with punches and elbows from the top. As long as he can avoid the submission attempts from Thiago, as well as random haymaker punches, Fitch will be fine. This will serve as the catalyst towards getting Fitch back into title contention. If Thiago Alves defeats Georges St. Pierre and Jon Fitch defeats Paulo Thiago, Fitch should then be the #1 contender. He already holds a win over Alves, and that is a big advantage. Prediction: Fitch by Unanimous Decision.
The final main card fight is a middleweight contest that features the highly-anticipated debut of former K-1 and DREAM star Yoshihiro Akiyama, as he takes on Muay Thai standout Alan "The Talent" Belcher.
Both of these fighters hold victories over former top-five middleweight fighter Denis "Super Korean" Kang, though the wins came in vastly different fashion. Akiyama bloodied Kang up early in their fight and took advantage of Kang's hindered vision by viciously knocking him out in the first round. Belcher, on the other hand, was completely dominated for nearly two full rounds by Kang before Kang made a mental error and put himself in a fight-ending guillotine choke.
Belcher desperately wants to play spoiler once again, as he looks to ruin the UFC debut of Akiyama, but Akiyama is a phenomenal fighter in all regards. If he takes Belcher down, Belcher is in major trouble. If he stands with Belcher, Akiyama's varied strikes and unorthodoxed style will throw Belcher off of his game. Belcher could absolutely win this with a big strike, but that is really his only chance. If he somehow pulls off a submission on Akiyama, I expect the sky to be filled with flying pigs soon after. Prediction: Akiyama by Submission in round one.
The first undercard fight is a bout that makes absolutely no sense, as light heavyweights Mark "The Hammer" Coleman and "The American Psycho" Stephan Bonnar do battle for no apparent reason.
Coleman's cardio is notoriously awful, and Bonnar should have no problems at all in this fight if he can survive the first round. Coleman will shoot for a takedown immediately, but Bonnar's guard and ground game will foil the aging wrestler's best efforts. Coleman simply is not the fighter that he was ten years ago, and needs to stop believing that he is. Bonnar may never be a title contender, but he certainly has the tools to vanquish Coleman and send him into retirement. If Bonnar loses this fight, he could find himself unemployed. Prediction: Bonnar by TKO in round two.
Moving on, we have a lightweight bout between two fighters who are looking to get back on the winning track, as TUF Season 6 Winner Mac Danzig takes on Jim Miller.
Danzig desperately needs this win or he may be cut from the UFC. Losing three fights in a row is never good for one's career. Miller has a little more leeway, as he is 2-1 in the UFC, but a loss to Danzig would be detrimental. Danzig will look to work his top game, but Miller's submissions are always dangerous. If Danzig isn't careful, he will find himself on the receiving end of a triangle choke. Danzig struggles badly when the fight isn't going his way, and Miller is crafty enough to dictate the pace of this one. As such, Danzig will make a mistake and it will cost him dearly. Prediction: Miller by Submission in round two.
Next, we have a light heavyweight fight between undefeated rising star Jon "Bones" Jones and one-dimensional former heavyweight "Irish" Jake O'Brien.
Try as I might, I cannot see any way that O'Brien can win this unless he somehow manages to keep Jones down for 15 minutes and ekes out a mind-numbingly boring decision. Jones is one of the most dynamic strikers in mixed martial arts, and his varied throws and takedowns are enough to take anyone off of their game. O'Brien relies on taking opponents down and then doing just enough to win decisions, but Jones is too explosive to be held down. O'Brien will make an early mistake and find himself unconscious from a brutal knee or kick from Jones. Prediction: Jones by KO late in round one.
The next fight has the potential to be one of the best on the card, as South Korean Judo ace Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim takes on Canadian submission standout TJ Grant.
To say that Grant was lucky to be given the Split Decision win over Ryo "The Piranha" Chonan at UFC 97 is a monumental understatement. He did nothing to deserve the win in that fight and he needs to up his game considerably if he wants to survive round one against Kim, who will look to throw Grant on his head early and often. Kim's only weakness is his cardio, but he has the skills to end this fight early or at least dominate the first two rounds to win a 29-28 decision. However, Kim will be looking to atone for his performance against Karo "The Heat" Parisyan and that spells doom for Grant. Prediction: Kim by TKO in round one.
Next up is a middleweight contest between TUF Season 7 Runner-Up CB "The Doberman" Dollaway and former light heavyweight "Filthy" Tom Lawlor.
Lawlor needs to keep this fight standing if he hopes to have any chance of winning. Dollaway's striking needs work, as well as his submission defence, but he displayed his impressive ground game when he submitted Jesse "JT Money" Taylor with a Peruvian Necktie. While a rarely-seen submission like that is unlikely here, Lawlor will come in overconfident and that will prove to be his downfall. Look for Dollaway to weather early strikes from Lawlor before taking him down and picking up a quick submission. Prediction: Dollaway by Submission in round one.
The final fight of the night is a lightweight bout between Matt "The Real One" Grice and Shannon Gugerty.
The sentimental choice in this fight is Grice, as he was robbed of a win over Matt Veach due to inconsistent officiating from the referee, but Gugerty is too skilled for Grice. While Grice could pick up a TKO victory if he can keep the fight standing, Gugerty's submission game is very good. All 11 of Gugerty's wins have come by stoppage, and this will be no different. It's a shame that this will end up being Grice's last appearance in the UFC, but Gugerty will soldier on. Prediction: Gugerty by Submission in round two.
On paper, this is one of the most impressive cards in UFC history, but the past has shown that that does not always end with the best events come fight time. The UFC has the hype machine in full force for UFC 100, so let's hope that it can live up to expectations.
