Carwin vs Velasquez Likely For UFC 104

by Robert Sargent

While not yet officially confirmed, UFC 104 is poised to feature a showdown between the top two prospects (both undefeated) in the UFC's heavyweight division, as heavy-hitting wrestler Shane Carwin has agreed to face MMA prodigy Cain Velasquez.

The fight, which will establish a future challenger for the UFC Heavyweight Championship, will determine which of the undefeated stars will continue their quick rise to the top.

Carwin (11-0-0) announced earlier today that he would be competing at UFC 104. He later stated that nothing had been officially confirmed, but that he expected to face Velasquez (6-0-0).

Both fighters are coming off of huge wins, and both had to survive early danger - in Velasquez's case, twice - in order to obtain their victories. Carwin knocked out former title challenger Gabriel "Napćo" Gonzaga in the first round of their fight at UFC 96, while Velasquez dominated top contender Cheick Kongo for much of their three-round bout at UFC 99 and earned a lopsided Unanimous Decision.

However, while both fighters possess strong wrestling skills and ultra-aggressive styles, Velasquez holds a significant advantage on the ground and Carwin has a huge edge in striking technique and power. All 11 of Carwin's fights have ended in the first round, and his longest fight to date was his pro debut, which lasted a mere 2:11. This is particularly relevant because Kongo badly rocked Velasquez at the beginning of the first and second rounds of their fight. If Carwin tags Velasquez with his power punches early on, it's likely lights out.

Velasquez survived the punches from Kongo by exploiting Kongo's atrocious takedown defence and nearly non-existent ground game. If Carwin rocks Velasquez early in round one, Velasquez will have a much tougher time in taking the massive Carwin to the mat. Even if he can, he then has to keep him there.

Carwin's size and strength are well-documented. He had to have special gloves made for him so that he could compete in the UFC, as his giant hands dwarf even those of the equally huge Brock Lesnar. Carwin's punching power is something to be feared, as Gonzaga most recently found out when he was knocked out by a short punch that was thrown with perhaps 30% of Carwin's true power. To say that Carwin is a physical threat to anyone is an understatement.

However, Velasquez is regarded as the top heavyweight prospect - and one of the top prospects in the sport, period - for a reason. He may have looked shaky in the early stages of the first two rounds against Kongo, but his superhuman recovery rate was incredible to watch. Literally within one second of being dropped to a knee by the punches from Kongo, Velasquez recovered and scored a takedown. Where most fighters would have been on the ground and unconscious, Velasquez was already working to get back into the fight. That perseverance allowed him to move on to the biggest victory of his young career.


Regardless of the outcome of this fight, both fighters have bright futures in the UFC, but this will serve as an indicator as to which one is ready to challenge for title gold right now. It is highly unlikely that the fight will make it out of round one unless Velasquez can find a way to take Carwin down and keep him there. That, however, is a tough task.