UFC 86 Predictions
by Robert Sargent
UFC 86 is mere hours away, and MMARising.com has full predictions for each fight on the card, including the main event featuring Forrest Griffin challenging Quinton "Rampage" Jackson for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship.
In addition, UFC 86 also features a very interesting middleweight bout, as submission ace Ricardo "Big Dog" Almeida takes on knockout artist Patrick "The Predator" Côté.
Beginning with the long-awaited main event, we have a UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout between champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and challenger Forrest Griffin, who won the first season of The Ultimate Fighter and is coming off of a victory over the former #1-ranked light heavyweight, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.
The victory over an injured and out of shape Shogun aside, Griffin has done very little since 2006 to prove that he's anywhere near worthy of a title shot. He could not handle the punching power of Keith Jardine, who does not hit as hard as Rampage does and is nowhere near as complete of a mixed martial artist. Rampage has all of the tools to destroy Griffin in any number of ways, while Griffin has few hopes of winning aside from a long, drawn-out decision.
However, that is not to say that Griffin has no chance in this fight. The year of 2007 showed everyone that anything is possible in MMA, and Griffin could very well pull off another huge upset here, as he did against Shogun. I don't see it happening, though. I think that Griffin will probably manage to survive round one, but he won't make it out of the second round. This is Rampage's fight to lose, and hopefully, for his sake, he won't. Prediction: Rampage by KO in round two.
The co-main event of the evening is a very intriguing middleweight contenders' bout between Patrick "The Predator" Côté, a devastating striker, and Ricardo "Big Dog" Almeida, a submission tactician who holds wins over many of the sport's top middleweight fighters.
Newer UFC fans will be unfamiliar with Almeida, who largely made his name in Pancrase and PRIDE in Japan, following a brief tenure in the UFC. He came out of retirement at UFC 81 with an incredibly impressive submission victory over the previously undefeated Rob "The Monster" Yundt. Côté, after losing his first four fights in the UFC, has come back with three straight UFC victories, bringing his overall record to 12-4.
Both have many notable wins, but both have completely different styles. Côté has faced criticism in the past for a suspect ground game, but holds a significant edge over Almeida in striking. Almeida, one of the best submission fighters in MMA, possesses a huge advantage on the ground, but lacks the striking proficiency and power of Côté.
The fight will likely be decided by where it takes place. If Almeida can survive early barrages of punches, and gets the fight to the ground, he will likely score a quick submission victory. If not, it could be lights out, with Côté the victor. I think that Almeida will be able to weather the storm and work his magic, but a Côté victory would not be at all surprising. Prediction: Almeida by Submission in round one.
Next up is a lightweight contest between two of the largest lightweight fighters in the sport today, as Joe "Daddy" Stevenson looks to rebound from his punishing loss to BJ Penn when he takes on Gleison Tibau.
Truthfully, this fight means nothing and really shouldn't even be on the main card. Stevenson was destroyed by Penn, while Tibau is coming off of a decisive loss to Tyson Griffin at UFC 81. Regardless of who wins this, they aren't getting (another) title shot anytime soon.
As much as I dislike watching the one-dimensional Stevenson, I think that he'll manage to overwhelm Tibau in this bout. I would love to see Tibau score an upset, but it's unlikely. Prediction: Stevenson by Submission in round one.
Moving on, we have a welterweight battle between Josh Koscheck and the ever-resilient Chris "Lights Out" Lytle.
Koscheck should win this, but I actually see this fight going Lytle's way. Lytle has recently been far more aggressive in his last few fights, and has still never been knocked out in his career. Unless Koscheck can drag out a decision, or score some sort of fluke submission, this is truly Lytle's fight to lose. He is way more experienced, has a more well-rounded game and has one of the best chins in the sport.
Koscheck should win, but he won't. Prediction: Lytle by TKO in round two.
The next fight is potentially the Fight of the Night, as world-class submission fighter Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio takes on the ever-explosive Tyson Griffin.
Griffin is known for his exciting fights in the UFC, but all have gone to decisions. In Aurelio, Griffin will have to put the pressure on early or risk being caught in a submission. Aurelio also displayed his vastly-improved striking against Luke Caudillo and Ryan Roberts, so Griffin will need to be wary of that if the fight stays standing.
Aurelio's world of experience, including his much-heralded submission victory over Takanori Gomi in PRIDE, should allow him to prevail in this bout, and I see Griffin being stopped for the first time. Prediction: Aurelio by Submission in round two.
The first undercard bout features a heavyweight clash between Gabriel "Napão" Gonzaga and Justin "The Insane 1" McCully.
I honestly could not care less about this bout, as McCully is one of the three UFC fighters I least like watching and Gonzaga's UFC future was crushed by Randy Couture and Fabricio Werdum. This fight means absolutely nothing, and is pretty much filler. That's sad, given Gonzaga's potential last year. Prediction: Gonzaga by TKO in round one.
Next is a lightweight bout between gatekeeper Jorge "J.G." Gurgel and Cole "Magrinho" Miller.
Although Gurgel is one of the most naturally talented fighters in MMA, how he still has a job in the UFC is anyone's guess. He repeatedly insists on engaging in striking battles with his opponents, despite his poor striking skills, and winds up losing or narrowly winning by boring decision as a result. By contrast, Miller has his whole future ahead of him, but needs a big win to solidify his place in the UFC, following a loss to Jeremy Stephens.
I have little faith in Gurgel to stop Miller in this fight, but I don't think Miller can stop Gurgel in the early rounds, either. Prediction: Miller by Decision.
The next fight is another lightweight bout, pitting "The Young Assassin" Melvin Guillard against Dennis Siver.
While I despise Guillard and his antics outside of the cage, he is far too much for Siver to handle. Barring a huge fluke upset, Guillard takes this by whatever he wants. Prediction: Guillard by KO in round one.
The final fight is yet another lightweight battle, with "The Real Deal" Corey Hill taking on Justin Buchholz.
Though the Corey Hill hype train will soon come to an end, it probably won't be in this bout. His size advantage will be too much for Buchholz, who has been anything but impressive. Prediction: Hill by TKO in round one.
While not the best card that the UFC has put on, UFC 86 is definitely a solid event and should feature a number of exciting fights.
