UFC 85 Predictions

by Robert Sargent

UFC 85: Bedlam is mere hours away, and MMARising.com looks over the chaotic card. While the event appears somewhat lacklustre on paper, there will undoubtedly be a number of exciting battles later tonight in London, England.

The event, which has undergone more changes than perhaps any other UFC card in history, is headlined by a catchweight bout between Thiago "Pitbull" Alves and Matt Hughes.

Beginning with the main event, we have former UFC Welterweight Champion Matt Hughes looking to make one final run at the title as he battles the explosive Thiago "Pitbull" Alves, in what is likely to be a #1-contender bout, should Alves win. Hughes has stated that, win or lose, he will next face Matt "The Terror" Serra.

This fight will likely be decided on whether or not Hughes can take Alves down. In Alves's last fight against Karo Parisyan, he defended all of Parisyan's takedown attempts except one, and looked to have worked significantly on his takedown defence. Hughes has reasonable striking abilities, but cannot compete with the "Muay Thai Wrecking Machine," Alves. Alves's ferocious leg kicks and powerful knees could easily wear down Hughes quickly.

At issue is Alves's failure to make weight for the fight, coming in at 174 pounds, which suggests that his cardio may not be up to par. If that is the case, Hughes will look to push the pace and drag the fight into rounds two and three. However, I do not see this happening. With all due respect to Hughes, whose career is matched by few others, he is not as explosive as he once was, and Alves's quickness will probably be a significant factor. Provided that Alves can finish the fight before the middle of round two, he should have it. Prediction: Thiago Alves by TKO in round one or early in round two.



Next up is a middleweight showdown between UFC posterboy Michael "The Count" Bisping and Canadian newcomer Jason "Dooms" Day. This will be one of Day's toughest tests to date, but he has already faced a number of high-calibre fighters in his career and specifically requested this fight.

Day entered the UFC at UFC 83, coming off of an extremely controversial Split Decision victory over David Loiseau, and proceeded to completely maul Alan "The Talent" Belcher, who had previously been held in high regard. If the same Day shows up at UFC 85 against Bisping, it could be three straight upset wins for Day, with two in the UFC.

While it is tempting to take the odds-on favourite in this fight, Bisping, one has to believe that Day will come into this fight highly motivated and looking to prove that his spot in the UFC has been well-earned. The fight will likely remain on the feet for most of the duration, with both promising to deliver a striking war. Day holds an advantage on the ground, while Bisping's striking is more refined.

This really comes down to which Day shows up. If it's the one who fought and "beat" Loiseau, then Bisping will make short work of him. If the Day that destroyed Belcher comes over to England, it could be a rude homecoming for Bisping. Bisping is the clear favourite in this fight, and could very easily knock Day out early in round one, but I will go out on a limb for this fight and say that Day finds some way to pull this one out. Prediction: Jason Day by Submission late in round two.



Third on the card is a welterweight bout between two strikers with heavy hands and explosive speed, as "The Irish Hand Grenade" Marcus Davis takes on Mike "Quick" Swick. Look for this one to be over quickly.

Davis has made a name for himself by stopping all of his recent opponents in the first round, often with devastating knockouts. Swick did exactly the same, but hasn't had a strong performance since defeating Joe "Diesel" Riggs in May of 2006. Swick's most recent fight, a very poor effort against Josh Burkman in which Swick narrowly escaped with a Majority Decision, did him no favours.

Davis hasn't exactly been in cruise control, either, however, as he had struggles against Pete Spratt and Paul Taylor, but emerged victorious against both. If Swick can get Davis in trouble early, and take advantage of Davis's weaker chin, Swick could pull this one out.

Davis is presumably the favourite coming in, and has definitely looked more impressive than Swick has recently, but this fight is sure to feature a lot of striking and Davis's chin cannot match Swick's. As such, even though my faith in Swick is low, I think that he will put a stop to the freight train of Davis. Prediction: Mike Swick by KO in round one.



We move on to a middleweight bout between two of the best ground fighters in the UFC, as Thales Leites battles the seven-time King of Pancrase, Nate "The Great" Marquardt. Though Marquardt has worked diligently on his striking, this is poised to be a submission war.

Marquardt, aside from his disappointing performance against Anderson Silva, has been nearly unstoppable as of late, taking on some of the top fighters in the UFC and dominating most. Leites, on the other hand, is a highly underrated Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt, who specialises in kata-gatame arm triangle chokes. He has been defeated just one time, by Martin Kampmann in his UFC debut, by decision.

Should this fight stay standing for any length of time, Leites could be on the receiving end of a punishing knockout, but he can more than hold his own against Marquardt, a grappling wizard. However, though Leites has all of the potential in the world to pull off an upset, Marquardt's experience is likely to win out, and he will find a way to finish the fight quickly. Prediction: Nate Marquardt by TKO late in round one.



This takes us to what could very easily be the Fight of the Night, with Fabricio "Vai Cavalo" Werdum taking on Brandon "The Truth" Vera, in a heavyweight battle to determine who will face the winner of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Frank Mir.

Werdum's UFC debut was disappointing, to say the least, in a boring decision loss to Andrei Arlovski where neither fighter did much of anything. His next fight, however, where he defeated Gabriel "Napćo" Gonzaga by TKO for the second time, more than redeemed him. For Vera, this is a chance to get back on the fast-track to stardom, following a decision loss to Tim Sylvia.

Vera's ground game is actually very much underrated, but he cannot compete with Werdum, who is truly one of the best submission fighters in all of mixed martial arts. Werdum has a very good chin and should be able to weather the flurry of strikes that Vera will throw his way.

Though Vera has a very bright future in the sport, especially if he does drop down to 205, Werdum has faced and beaten some of the top heavyweights in the sport, and that experience advantage will pay dividends. Not to take anything away from Vera's victory over former UFC Heavyweight Champion Frank Mir, but the edge in competition is solidly in Werdum's favour, and he will get Vera down and submit him. Prediction: Fabricio Werdum by Submission in round two.




Moving on to the undercard, the first fight is a middleweight bout between two strikers, as Jorge "El Conquistador" Rivera looks to continue the revitalisation of his career when he takes on Martin "The Hitman" Kampmann.

Kampmann has lost just one time in his career, via cut, and has recently displayed a highly-developed ground game, despite his background being primarily in striking. Rivera, on the other hand, is a brawler with heavy hands and strength in the clinch. What decides this fight, or should at least, is the fact that Kampmann's chin is granite and Rivera has been very susceptible to knockouts in the past. Prediction: Martin Kampmann by KO or Submission in round one.



Next, we have a lightweight fight between "Handsome" Matt Wiman and Thiago Tavares, in what appears to be a punishment of sorts for Tavares, after his poor showing against Michihiro Omigawa.

If Wiman wasn't a part of this fight, it would likely be on the main card, as even Tavares's lone career loss - a close decision to Tyson Griffin - was one of the best fights of 2007. However, Tavares's performance against Omigawa was uncharacteristically poor, and he'll have to return to his dominant ways if he wants to get back on the main telecast.

Though Wiman is a decent fighter, he is vastly outclassed here, and Tavares should walk through him pretty easily. If Tavares fights tentatively, as he did against Omigawa, Wiman could certainly pull off an upset, but I don't see that happening. Prediction: Thiago Tavares by Submission in round one or early in round two.



Moving on, we have another welterweight bout, this time featuring Roan "Jucao" Carneiro against the debuting Kevin Burns, who is 6-1 and skilled in submissions himself.

While Carneiro has been inconsistent throughout his career, his skills on the ground should prove to be the deciding factor here. Burns, a total unknown would may very well come in and score an upset, is facing a very tough submission artist with solid striking skills. Carneiro should, in theory, take this handily. Prediction: Roan Carneiro by Submission in round two.



The next fight is a light heavyweight showdown between highly-touted Luiz "Banha" Cane and Jason "The Punisher" Lambert. While both fighters are coming off of losses, the situations differ considerably.

Cane made his debut against "The Sandman" James Irvin last December at UFC 79, where he was disqualified for kneeing Irvin in the head on the ground, supposedly knocking Irvin out during the opening stanza. Cane disputes that Irvin was actually hurt, and will look to rebound from the disqualification, his first professional loss.

Lambert, on the other hand, was soundly dominating Wilson Gouveia at UFC 80 before being knocked out cold by a counter left hook, ending Lambert's immediate hopes to enter the title picture. While he will likely be able to use his size to score a takedown in this fight, Cane's superior ground game will take over and this shouldn't go long. Prediction: Luiz Cane by Submission in round one.



This takes us to a welterweight rematch between "Relentless" Paul Taylor and Jess "The Joker" Liaudin. The two faced each other in Cage Rage in 2003, with Taylor emerging victorious and Liaudin claiming controversy.

In their first fight, Taylor had taken Liaudin down and Liaudin tried to lock in an armbar. Taylor stood and twisted, and Liaudin wound up landing on his head - to no fault of Taylor's - and Liaudin later claimed that Taylor had illegally "spiked" him on his head. The record stands with Taylor taking the decision victory then, and this will be no different. However, Taylor will end the fight early this time. Prediction: Paul Taylor by KO in round one.



The final fight is a heavyweight bout between Antoni Hardonk and "The Manic Hispanic" Eddie Sanchez. This likely won't make it out of round one.

Sanchez deserves full credit for his recent TKO victory over Soa Palelei, a fight in which Sanchez was given little or no chance. However, against Hardonk, he is heavily outmatched in striking.

Hardonk's major weakness is his takedown defence, and inability to defend submissions on the ground, but he will not have to worry much about that against Sanchez, who is a striker and brawler. Much like his fight against Cro Cop, Sanchez will be dominated by the superior striking and kickboxing from Hardonk, and this won't make it out of round one. Prediction: Antoni Hardonk by TKO in round one.



UFC 85 will air live on Pay Per View from London, England in just a few hours, and may turn out to be one of the dark horse events of the year.