EliteXC: Primetime Predictions
by Robert Sargent & Daniel Regan
Mixed martial arts makes its debut on primetime network television this Saturday, at EliteXC: Primetime on CBS, and MMARising.com offers a complete analysis of the event's main card, with predictions for each historic fight.
In the main events, Kevin Ferguson takes on James Thompson, Gina Carano battles Kaitlin Young and EliteXC Middleweight Champion Robbie Lawler defends against Scott Smith.
Rob: We start off this historic card with a heavyweight battle between street fighting sensation Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson and a veteran of many top promotions, James "The Colossus" Thompson.
Daniel: This is simply a showcase fight for Kimbo. While Thompson has looked very good against Fujita, Frye, and Yoshida, it's hard to see him standing up to the hard strikes from Kimbo. Thompson thinks he can grapple now, so he'll try to push Kimbo to the cage. Watch the clinch be short-lived and a stiff uppercut, followed by a left hook end Thompson's chances of winning. Kimbo won't get the respect he deserves yet, but I expect him to be the real deal. Prediction: Kimbo Slice by KO in round one.
Rob: Yeah, I feel the same way. Thompson is one of the most inconsistent fighters in the sport. He's had great moments, like the aforementioned wars with Fujita, Frye and Yoshida, and then has been knocked out in extremely short fashion by Aleksander Emelianenko, Neil Grove and, at the last EliteXC event, by Brett Rogers. Thompson's "chin of glass," as Mauro Ranallo says, will be his downfall in this fight. Prediction: Kimbo Slice by KO early in round one.
Daniel: Now, on to the EliteXC Middleweight Championship bout between "Ruthless" Robbie Lawler and Scott "Hands of Steel" Smith. This is an interesting fight. I've had issues with Lawler's hype in the past, considering some of his poor performances. Even when he defeated Murilo "Ninja" Rua, he only capitalized on his opponent's lack of cardio after losing the first two rounds. Can Lawler be great? I think so. Is he? No. However, he's facing a guy who can't even beat Ed Herman. He should KO him 1st round. Prediction: Robbie Lawler by KO in round one.
Rob: I agree that Lawler has looked poor in the past, but he has at least developed as a fighter over the past couple of years. However, I actually think that there may be a changing of the guard in this fight. Lawler hits hard, but his chin isn't the greatest. He was KOed by Nick Diaz a few years ago, and Diaz has never really been a one-punch knockout artist. By contrast, while Smith didn't fare that well in the UFC, he has an excellent chin and hits even harder than Lawler does. What it will come down to, I think, is whether Smith comes out timidly like he did against Kyle Noke, or aggressively and throws from the start. Prediction: Scott Smith by KO in round two.
Daniel: As I said, Lawler by KO. Smith isn't good enough for a TUF show.
Rob: That brings us to the fight that has probably received the most publicity of all on the card, a women's bout between undefeated EliteXC star Gina "Conviction" Carano and the very dangerous striker, Kaitlin Young. This bout will serve as a #1 contender's bout, of sorts, for the soon-to-be-created EliteXC Women's Championship.
Daniel: Well, interesting fight here. Young is a balls-to-the-wall brawler who has what it takes to beat Gina standing. Her main flaw is that she's weak on the ground and Gina has been improving her wrestling at an incredible rate. This fight might surprise. Although Gina has only had a few weeks to train, I think she'll pull it out. Look for a slow start as they feel each other out and then Young unleashing holy hell. Somehow, by takedown, slip, or wrath of god, the fight will hit the ground and I see Carano reversing Young and getting the finish. Prediction: Gina Carano by stoppage (TKO or Submission) in round one or two.
Rob: I think that that is potentially the most likely scenario, but I've been saying for weeks that I really see Kaitlin taking this fight. Gina has done a tremendous amount for women's MMA, and her stint as "Crush" on American Gladiators has only increased exposure, but her crazed timetable and lack of time to train could be an issue here. Kaitlin is a full-time Kinesiology student, too, but she has had almost three times as long to train. Gina holds the edge on the ground, but I'd actually give the striking edge to Kaitlin, though it is close. The difference is that Kaitlin hits much, much harder than Gina does. I'm picking the upset here, and saying that Kaitlin survives the early grappling exchanges. Prediction: Kaitlin Young by KO late in round one or early in round two.
Daniel: Next is "The New York Bad Ass" Phil Baroni vs "Smokin'" Joe Villasenor. Baroni claims he's "the best eva!!!" Keep dreaming, Phil. I'm looking for the upset here. Phil looked terrible in his last fight; nothing like a former top fighter. I think Villasenor will take this one. Joe is a much better fighter than most people know and we'll see that Saturday. Prediction: Joe Villasenor by whatever he wants.
Rob: Baroni's best days are well behind him. He started off well in the UFC, then ran into Matt Lindland and Evan Tanner, losing twice to each of them. Then he was embarrassed by Pete Sell and left the UFC. His PRIDE tenure started off well, then he met the glass ceiling known as Kazuo Misaki. Since then, Baroni has looked poor, losing handily to Frank Shamrock and then completely gassing against Kala Kalohe Hose. Baroni won't be able to use stomps, soccer kicks or knees on the ground in this fight, which will drastically limit his offence. He has very little chance of winning this. Prediction: Joe Villasenor by Submission in round two.
Daniel: The final main card fight is Brett "The Grim" Rogers taking on Jon Murphy. Murphy is a bit out of his league against Rogers. While Rogers is not going to be breaking into the top 10 anytime soon, Murphy is just not likely to take this fight with his lack of experience. This is way too big of a step for him. Expect an early 1st round TKO. Prediction: Brett Rogers by TKO in round one.
Rob: I don't even know why this fight is on the main card. Murphy is being fed to the wolves here. Rogers is coming off of the biggest victory of his career, knocking out James Thompson, and he will cruise through this fight. It should be Rogers taking on Kimbo Slice, not Thompson. Prediction: Brett Rogers by TKO in round one.
EliteXC: Primetime will air live this Saturday night on most CBS affiliates, and on a tape delay on many others. Don't miss this historic night of action as mixed martial arts invades primetime network television for the first time.
