UFC 84 Predictions
by Robert Sargent & Daniel Regan
As we get ready for UFC 84: Ill Will tomorrow night, MMARising.com breaks down the card from top to bottom, with the usual blend of humour, insight and predictions for one of the better events that the UFC has recently assembled.
The event showcases a UFC Lightweight Championship bout between champion "The Prodigy" BJ Penn and challenger Sean "The Muscle Shark" Sherk, with two solid co-main events.
Rob: Starting with the main event of the evening, we have a UFC Lightweight Championship bout between "The Prodigy" BJ Penn and Sean "The Muscle Shark" Sherk.
Daniel: Seriously, what are we looking at here? The former champ - who beat a sub-par Florian for the title - against BJ Penn, who's one of the best P4P fighters in the world. Penn has been in there against the best, and beaten many of the world's top fighters. Sherk has faced top fighters few and far between, and whenever he has, he's lost. I have no faith in him for this fight.
Rob: I won't be quite as critical of Sherk as that, but the fact remains that he is delusional coming into the fight, thinking his boxing is "better than BJ's." Sherk's boxing is among the worst in the sport, and everyone knows that Sherk is not going to engage in a striking battle with BJ if he wants any chance of winning. Sadly, Sherk's offence will consist entirely of lay and pray, meaning BJ will have to work for submissions constantly. That's assuming that Sherk can even get him down.
Daniel: Hughes spent two rounds trying to get Penn down. GSP could not shoot and take him down. The only thing he eventually did was lift him from his feet, which he accomplished due to his massive size advantage over Penn. Sherk's wrestling isn't world-class and we're going to see what happens when he faces his first top-15 opponent at lightweight. Let's see how his cardio does without the steroids.
Rob: The way this fight ends really does depend on whether or not Sherk can take BJ down, but I don't see Sherk winning this in any way unless the fight somehow makes it to round 4 or 5 and BJ gets tired. If Sherk can get BJ down, BJ will probably win by submission. If Sherk can't get BJ down, and that remains to be seen, BJ will TKO him with punches early in round one or two. I'll take BJ by second-round TKO. Prediction: Penn by TKO in round two.
Daniel: BJ Penn by TKO in whatever round it goes to. He won't gas. Prediction: Penn by TKO in any round.
Rob: Okay, the second fight on the card could turn into Fight of the Night, as "The Axe Murderer" Wanderlei Silva takes on "The Dean of Mean" Keith Jardine.
Daniel: Silva, Silva, shave your head. As long as you shave your head and we can see the tattoo, you will trounce over Jardine.
Rob: People are unfairly ruling Silva out and claiming that his career is over because he has lost three straight. Let's take a look at those losses. The first was to Cro Cop, a heavyweight, in a tournament that Silva didn't even need to be in but entered anyway. The second was to Dan Henderson, when Silva had a 104ºF fever and was in the hospital all night before the fight. The third was an extremely close, all-out war with Chuck Liddell where Silva survived Liddell's best punches and even dropped Liddell. Silva's career is far from over.
Daniel: I see Silva coming out slightly tentative. A few leg kicks from Jardine will open his mind, though, and we'll see the old Silva KO Jardine. Silva is an amazing fighter, one of my all-time favorites. Jardine pulled out a fast one on an unsuspecting Chuck Liddell, but I don't think he's got it in him to take out Silva. Silva's getting back on the fast road to his title. Prediction: Silva by KO in round one.
Rob: I agree. With Shogun faltering in his first UFC fight, and now out indefinitely with injury, Silva is the main contender for Rampage's title. I can't see Griffin beating Rampage, and Liddell vs Rampage III is completely pointless, so Silva needs this win. If he gets this, and maybe one more, they have to set up Rampage vs Silva III, which could be Fight of the Decade. In this fight, though, I think that Silva should take this by first-round KO. It might go to round two, or maybe Jardine pulls off another upset, but I think it's time for Silva to get back to his familiar winning ways. Prediction: Silva by KO in round one.
Daniel: Hey, Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida is a contender also, and we're going to see him against his toughest opponent yet, in "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Tito Ortiz. This is a big fight and, while I believe Machida is the better fighter, I would like to see Ortiz win just to give Dana White one final pain in his ass.
Rob: Yeah, up until two days ago, I was soundly backing Machida in this fight, because he is one of the most underrated and underused fighters in MMA history. However, after seeing Tito's interviews about UFC President Dana White, I wouldn't be upset if Tito pulls this one off. Win or lose, I expect Tito to have some choice words for Dana after the fight, assuming they don't censor his mic, but I still have to give the edge to Machida in this one.
Daniel: I'm going to got out on a limb here and say Tito by 2nd round stoppage. Prediction: Ortiz by TKO in round two.
Rob: That could very well happen. If it does, and Tito makes a rightful mockery of the idiocy that is Dana White, great. If it doesn't, I hope that Tito still gets in a few parting shots. I'll say that Machida takes this by Decision, because I don't think that he'll stop Tito, but I don't really have any preference at this point. Prediction: Machida by Decision.
Daniel: Either way it goes, I bet they don't give a mic to Tito.
Rob: Next up is Wilson Gouveia vs Goran Reljic.
Daniel: Reljic is a good fighter and should be taking this one. I haven't been impressed with Gouveia enough to see him on the main card, especially over Sokoudjou and Nakamura. Reljic by a second-round TKO. Prediction: Reljic by TKO in round two.
Rob: Gouveia pulled off an incredible KO in his last fight against Jason Lambert, after being completely dominated for nearly six minutes, but I don't know if he can do the same here. Reljic has yet to taste defeat, and comes in with a lot of hype behind him. Training kickboxing with Cro Cop, one of the best strikers in MMA, and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with Roger Gracie, arguably the best submission grappler in the world, Reljic seems to have all of the tools for success. I'll say Reljic by second-round Submission. Prediction: Reljic by Submission in round two.
Daniel: Final main card fight is Thiago Silva vs Antonio "Samuray" Mendes.
Rob: I don't know much about Mendes, but most of his victories have come by way of knockout. He does have solid submissions, but his best chance of winning this is by random flying knee, which he lists as his favourite striking technique. Silva is an absolute beast in striking exchanges, which will make it very difficult for Mendes to do much of anything. This will likely turn into a striking war, and there's always the possibility of an upset, but I think Silva takes this by KO in round one. After this, he needs to be put against a top-10 guy at 205. If Sokoudjou beats Nakamura, Silva vs Sokoudjou would be amazing. Prediction: Silva by KO in round one.
Daniel: Again, I like Silva but this is a waste of a fight for him. He needs to be facing top competition, not amateur night at the Apollo. Prediction: Silva by throat slash.
Rob: The first undercard fight is "The African Assassin" Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou vs Kazuhiro Nakamura.
Daniel: Sokoudjou by African Kung Fu.
Rob: This is kind of a must-win for both fighters, and I really don't know how it's going to go. Sokoudjou will probably get Nakamura to engage in a striking battle, and knock Nakamura out, but I won't discount Nakamura completely. I'd actually like to see Nakamura win, but it's fairly unlikely. Sokoudjou by TKO in round two.
Daniel: Next fight is Ivan Salaverry vs Rousimar "Toquinho" Palhares.
Rob: Salaverry needs a win here or his career is basically over. Terry Martin, who is awful, dispatched of Salaverry in two minutes at UFC 71. Palhares has only lost once, by Decision, and has many submission wins, including one over Daniel Acacio. I think Palhares takes this by Submission in round two.
Daniel: Palhares by way of not being from Canada!
Rob: Blasphemy.
Daniel: The next fight is Rich "No Love" Clementi vs Terry Etim.
Rob: Etim is actually pretty good, but he's really skinny for 155, so Clementi will outweigh him by about 20 pounds come fight time. I'll say Clementi by Submission in round one.
Daniel: Clementi by 2nd round KO.
Rob: Next is Jon Koppenhaver vs Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida.
Daniel: Yoshida by name association.
Rob: Koppenhaver's battle with Jared Rollins was incredible, but Yoshida has already knocked out two extremely talented fighters, in Katsuya Inoue and Akira Kikuchi. Koppenhaver won't be able to weather the strikes for long. I'll say Yoshida by KO in round two.
Daniel: On to Jason Tan vs Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim.
Rob: Jason Tan was demolished by Marcus Davis in his last UFC appearance, and this won't be any different. Kim has only lost one time, has five recent victories by knockout from punches and will run through Tan. South Korea's recent success in MMA will continue here. Kim by KO in round one.
Daniel: Kim by Draft Dodging.
Rob: Hahaha. Final fight is "The Hungarian Nightmare" Christian Wellisch vs Shane Carwin.
Daniel: Carwin by DQ due to...hair pulling.
Rob: Highly probable, given that both have shaved heads. Seriously, though, this fight is meaningless, but I'll say that Carwin remains undefeated and wins by Submission in round two.
Check back tomorrow night after the event for full UFC 84 results and recap.
