UFC 81:" Breaking Point" Predictions
by Robert Sargent
UFC 81 features two high-profile heavyweight battles, as Tim "The Maine-iac" Sylvia and Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira battle for the UFC Interim Heavyweight title, while former champion Frank Mir faces ex-WWE pro wrestler Brock Lesnar.
Nogueira will look to become the first fighter to hold UFC and PRIDE championship gold, while Mir looks to get back to the top again.
The main event for UFC 81 features a UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship battle between former champion Tim "The Maine-iac" Sylvia and former PRIDE Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira. Sylvia is coming off of a very lacklustre performance against undersized Brandon "The Truth" Vera, while Nogueira was nearly knocked out in his battle with "The Texas Crazy Horse" Heath Herring at UFC 73. As a result, both fighters will be looking to not only capture the interim title, but also make a significant impact on the entire heavyweight division.
Sylvia's only chance for victory in this fight is a knockout. Unless he can hold Nogueira against the cage for 25 minutes, and stall out a decision win, there is no way that Sylvia can win unless he can knock Nogueira out. Prior to the fight with Herring, most people would have given Sylvia no chance for that knockout. However, after Nogueira was nearly knocked out by Herring, it's clear that his chin is not quite as solid as it once was. The question, then, is whether Sylvia has the power to knock Nogueira out. He probably does, but I see Nogueira either dropping Sylvia with a punch or submitting him on the ground after a takedown. I do not see this going this distance, unless Sylvia stalls out another boring fight. Prediction: Nogueira by Submission.
The other featured heavyweight battle sees former champion Frank Mir take on former WWE professional wrestler Brock Lesnar. This fight is fairly easy to call, in that one of two things will happen. Lesnar will either bull-rush Mir, take him down and pound out a quick (T)KO victory, or Mir will take Lesnar down - or battle from bottom position - and quickly submit Lesnar. Though the popular choice seems to be to choose Lesnar by early KO - which is an extremely possible outcome to this fight - I am going to put faith in Mir to return to the Mir of old. If the Mir who broke Tim Sylvia's arm shows up for this fight, Lesnar is out of luck. Prediction: Mir by Submission.
The next fight is the return to the UFC of ironman fighter Jeremy "Gumby" Horn, who has amassed an incredible record of 88-16-5. He will battle former #1 middleweight contender Nate "The Great" Marquardt, in what will surely be a grappling clinic. Neither fighter is overly known for their striking, but I must give the edge to Horn. He has knocked out Forrest Griffin on the feet, and actually out-struck Chuck Liddell for much of their fight - despite being well undersized for 205 - before eventually losing. By contrast, Marquardt's striking looked poor against Anderson Silva. Regardless, I do not see striking as having a huge effect in this fight. Marquardt is a master on the ground, as the seven-time Middleweight King of Pancrase, but Horn's world of experience is going to prevail here. Prediction: Horn by Submission.
Next up is another middleweight battle, as Ricardo "Big Dog" Almeida makes his return to mixed martial arts against Alan "The Talent" Belcher. North American fans likely won't be familiar with Almeida, but he must be considered the favourite coming into this fight, even after a nearly four-year layoff. Nearly every one of Almeida's ten career fights have been against top competition, with his only defeats coming to Matt Lindland (by DQ at UFC 31) and Andrei Semenov (by TKO at UFC 35). He holds victories over Akira Shoji, Ikuhisa "The Punk" Minowa, Ryo "The Shark" Chonan, Kazuo "Grabaka Hitman" Misaki and Nate "The Great" Marquardt, among others, and is a veteran of the top three worldwide mixed martial arts promotions - the UFC, PRIDE and Pancrase.
By contrast, Belcher has fallen short in all of his moderately high-profile battles, aside from his most recent victory - by cut - over Kalib Starnes. He has been defeated by Marvin Eastman, Yushin Okami and Kendall Grove, with UFC victories over Jorge Santiago and Sean Salmon. While Belcher's striking may be superior to Almeida's, the outcome of this fight really has nothing to do with Belcher at all. Everything hinges on whether Almeida is in the same form as he was when he first retired from competition in 2004, after dominating Ryo Chonan. If he is, he will steamroll Belcher. If he isn't, Belcher could end this very quickly. My faith in Belcher is limited, and Almeida is a world-class fighter, so I have to take Almeida in this one. Prediction: Almeida by Submission.
The last of the main-card fights sees a lightweight showdown between Gleison Tibau and Tyson Griffin. While Tibau is definitely no pushover, Griffin simply outclasses him in every regard in this fight. This will likely turn into a wrestling match, with both fighters going for submissions. It could easily go the distance, but I see Griffin pulling off a submission in the second round. Prediction: Griffin by Submission.
Undercard Fights:
Chris "Lights Out" Lytle vs Kyle Bradley. I'll take Lytle by Submission.Marvin "The Beastman" Eastman vs Terry Martin. I'm picking Eastman by KO.
David Heath vs Tim "The Barbarian" Boetsch. I'll take Heath, but I do not know anything about Boetsch, and this fight is completely meaningless.
Keita "K-Taro" Nakamura vs Rob "The Saint" Emerson. I'll take Nakamura, in an upset, but this fight also means nothing.
A disappointing undercard to an otherwise solid event.
