UFC 79: "Nemesis" Predictions
by Robert Sargent & Daniel Regan
UFC 79 promises to be the best card that the UFC has put on this year. We may not be getting the superbowl they promised (do we ever get what they promise?), but we're still getting at least three quality fights.
While the UFC could still take a page from the Japanese and flesh out the entire card, it's nice to see fights where there is no guaranteed outcome.
Daniel: Starting with the rubber match between Georges "Rush" St. Pierre and Matt Hughes, we tread on dangerous ground. Serra, the original opponent for Hughes, was forced to drop out of the fight after a serious spinal injury. Thus, enter GSP stage left. He's only got a month to prepare but, from the looks of things, he appears more prepared than Hughes! While Hughes spends his time training out of his local high school team's gym, GSP has an amazing team supporting him. The first fight was GSP's fight until the ending armbar. The second fight showed GSP beating Hughes in the worst loss of his career. The third fight? Hughes gets so scared that he forgets to eat his country breakfast and doesn't make it to the second round.
Rob: I do believe that the main event on this card is probably the easiest to call, of the main three battles. St. Pierre was doing very well in the first fight with Hughes, before the armbar with one second left in the first round, and then he dominated Hughes in the second fight. GSP is also looking to re-establish himself as the top of the division, after his upset loss to Matt Serra. GSP seems to be taking this fight much more seriously, despite having a short training camp, and I believe that he is going to dominate Hughes once again. I see a TKO victory for St. Pierre in the late-second or early-third round. I do not believe it will make it to rounds four and five. Prediction: St. Pierre
Daniel: That reminds me, this is an interim championship fight! Perhaps the best thing for this fight was getting Serra out of the way so the top two of the division could fight. GSP should restore his crown...granted he doesn't spend half the night slipping on poorly placed logos. Prediction: St. Pierre
Rob: The other main event fight on the card is the six-years-in-the-making superfight between Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell and "The Axe Murderer" Wanderlei Silva. While this fight may not hold the same worth as if it had been contested in 2003, it is still the biggest fight of the year for the UFC, even with both fighters coming off of two losses. Liddell absolutely has a chance in this fight, as he is a counterpuncher and Silva is a full-throttle brawler when he wants to be. However, I believe that Silva's quickness will allow him to get off the first meaningful strike and Liddell's night (and probably career) will be ended early in the second round.
Daniel: I should know better than to buy in to the Zuffa hype machine but the UFC All-Access show with Silva has me psyched for my favorite legal serial killer. The only thing that made me nervous was him practicing stomps...I'm afraid for Chuck! Perhaps the biggest thing in this fight is that Chuck has said that he is not changing any of the fundamentals of his training, even after two major losses. At the time of UFC 71, Rampage was barely considered in the top 10 and Jardine was nowhere near it. Not only did Chuck lose to both, but he lost decisively. Wanderlei is coming off of two losses also, but he lost to the #3 HW at the time and the Middleweight Champion (To Silva's defense, he did have a 104 degree fever the night before and spent the night in the emergency room). Chuck likes sloppy grapplers who pretend they can strike so they run straight at him. That isn't Silva. Silva will charge, he will rock Chuck and he will finish him late in the first round. Prediction: Silva
Rob: What I found funny was Liddell watching old Silva fights from PRIDE on his computer, and his trainer said that they had yet to find any holes in Wanderlei's game. That is hardly comforting for Liddell, as he has made a career out of capitalising on the mistakes of his opponents. However, as has been seen in Liddell's past two fights, he does not do well against strikers, and Wanderlei is one of the best strikers at 205. Although it does appear that Liddell is in better physical shape for this fight than for his past two, I cannot see it making much of a difference. Chuck could score a KO, the fight could go to a decision or Silva could be DQ'd after landing a series of illegal stomps, but I believe that Silva will be the one with his hand raised in the end. Prediction: Silva
Daniel: Let's just hope this fight doesn't end up in the pool, because Liddell would seriously be out-snorkeled.
Rob: That brings us to the fight which I am most excited about, simply because I have absolutely no idea how it will turn out. Undefeated Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida takes on the debuting "African Assassin" Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou. Most UFC fans will have no idea who Sokoudjou is, but he is coming off of back-to-back first-round KO victories at PRIDE 33 and 34 over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ricardo Arona - both of whom were well in the top 10 at 205 at the time. He has lethal power in his hands and is quite possibly the largest competitor at 205 pounds in MMA today. However, Machida is one of the most skilled defensive counter-fighters in mixed martial arts, and that could wreak havoc on Sokoudjou's gameplan.
Daniel: Machida is going to evade his punches and take him down. But wait, Sokoudjou is one of the best Judokas in the world, and there's no way that Machida can take him down. And, if he does, who is better on the ground? What if Sokoudjou hits Machida with one of those heavy-handed bombs that made even Arona give up his single-leg? What if Machida is simply too evasive for him? This fight is mind-boggling. If there was ever a fight that had me confused, it's this one.
Rob: I've gone back and forth on whom I see winning this battle. On the one hand, Sokoudjou knocked out granite-chinned Rogerio Nogueira in 23 seconds. On the other hand, Machida is the king of evading strikes, and has beaten past UFC champions BJ Penn and Rich Franklin. Although I would not be the least bit shocked to see Sokoudjou finish the fight with an early knockout, I think that Machida will eventually prevail in this one, probably by decision. He's not strong enough to manhandle Sokoudjou on the ground, so the best he can hope for is to win the standup exchanges by counterpunching. Machida by relatively close decision. Prediction: Machida
Daniel: If Sokoudjou gets ahold of Machida, he's going to spike him on his head. If he connects with strikes, Machida is going down. Sokoudjou by second round TKO! Prediction: Sokoudjou
Rob: The fourth fight of the night is Rich "No Love" Clementi vs "The Young Assassin" Melvin Guillard. Both are veterans of the sport, but both are extremely different characters. Guillard is very egotistical, and trash talked Joe Stevenson for weeks before their fight, then quickly lost to a snap guillotine choke by Stevenson and then tested positive for cocaine. Hardly the marks of a champion. Clementi has had mixed success in the UFC, but his losses have been against legitimately top fighters. He is dropping back down to 155 for this fight, so he will have a greater size and strength advantage than usual. However, despite his character shortcomings, Guillard is a very strong fighter, too. Regardless, I see Clementi taking this by decision, though he could submit Guillard early. I'll assume that Guillard can survive, and loses a decision. Guillard's only real hope is a big punch that ends Clementi's night early. Prediction: Clementi
Daniel: Oh, come on, UFC! This is supposed to be the superbowl. Three great fights, I was impressed, and then we get Clementi vs Guillard on the same card; a fight that has no importance in their division. They don't even have importance when it comes to staking out the top 30 in their division. If anything, Guillard has a much better track record, and Clementi is one of the weaker fighters in all of the UFC. I don't see how Guillard can lose this fight, but I'll be honest - I might find something to do while that fight is on. The last thing I feel like seeing is Guillard running in to another guillotine. Prediction: Guillard
Rob: The fifth fight of the night is more interesting to me, simply because it should be a one-sided mugging. Barring some sort of fluke occurrence, Soa "The Hulk" Palelei should absolutely maul the outmatched "Manic Hispanic" Eddie Sanchez. Sanchez keeps getting fed to the wolves in the UFC. First Cro Cop, now Palelei. While Palelei is nowhere near as well-known as Cro Cop, he is a massive beast of a heavyweight and has a number of top fights under his belt. Palelei should win this fight by whatever he wants. Sanchez is completely out of his league, and can only win with a 2007-era upset fluke. Prediction: Palelei
Daniel: Poor Sanchez. Not only did he look horrible at the weigh-in, but he's on the road to getting beaten horribly again. What's there to say about this? This fight doesn't deliver. Prediction: Palelei
Rob: The sixth fight features the debut of undefeated Luiz "Banha" Cane and James "The Sandman" Irvin. We were robbed of seeing a great fight between Irvin and Thiago Silva at UFC 71 when Irvin suffered a knee injury early in the first round, so this is his second chance to make an impact. He is only 2-3 in the UFC, but Irvin is a legitimately tough fighter. Cane, on the other hand, could pose any number of problems for Irvin, and it remains to be seen what will transpire in this bout. I want to pick Irvin, but I'm going to have to give the nod to Cane, who will remain undefeated. I do not see the fight going the distance. Prediction: Cane
Daniel: I'll take Irvin in this one. Prediction: Irvin
Undercard Fights:
Rob: I'll pick Nate Mohr over Manny Gamburyan, Jordan Radev over Dean Lister, Roan Carneiro over Tony DeSouza and Mark Bocek over Doug Evans, though I'm not even remotely confident on any of them. All toss-up fights with fairly little meaning.Daniel: Gamburyan, Lister, DeSouza and who??
UFC 79 takes place tomorrow night.
