UFC 78: "Validation" Predictions
by Robert Sargent
With a number of highly-regarded fighters making their UFC debuts and a very solid undercard, UFC 78: "Validation" from New Jersey promises to be an explosive night of competition and features a battle of strikers when Thiago Silva meets Houston Alexander.
The main event features a battle between two undefeated light heavyweights, as The Ultimate Fighter winners Michael "The Count" Bisping and "Sugar" Rashad Evans square off to determine who is the next big thing.
Michael "The Count" Bisping vs "Sugar" Rashad Evans
Much like the UFC 76 card, UFC 78's one blemish is its weak main event. However, while Liddell/Jardine at UFC 76 turned out to be a surprisingly competitive and exciting fight, it seems unlikely that Bisping vs Evans can do the same.Rashad Evans has made comments before each of his last four or five fights claiming that he'll be ultra-aggressive and show the fans what he is capable of, then he never does it and typically engages in lacklustre fights that go to decisions. His highlight-reel knockout over struggling UFC fighter Sean Salmon notwithstanding, Evans has yet to actually do anything to prove that he belongs in the upper echelon of the UFC Light Heavyweight division.
By contrast, Bisping had done a good job of sticking to what he said he would do before fights, which generally involved predictions of early TKO victories. That is, until he met Matt Hamill at UFC 75, in a fight in which Bisping clearly lost but was awarded an extremely poor Split Decision victory. Coming off of what was obviously a loss, Bisping definitely has something to prove and, while his comments after the Hamill fight badly harmed his reputation, Bisping is fully capable of fighting aggressively and going for the knockout. Evans, the Salmon fight aside, is not.
This fight is extremely likely to go to a decision, as Evans has very little stopping power and Bisping isn't strong enough to manhandle Evans. It is possible that Bisping could land a solid shot and knock Evans out, but a decision - possibly a Split - has to be the most likely outcome. Evans will likely employ his typical lay and pray tactics, which will frustrate Bisping, but it remains to be seen whether Bisping will be able to do anything about it.
UFC President Dana White has said that whichever fighter wins this battle of the undefeated TUF show winners will be a top 5 fighter at 205. That is definitely some promotional spin, as, with the way things stand right now, neither of these fighters are even in the top 15. Bisping could, if he can string some impressive wins together, maybe break the top 10 by the end of 2008. Prediction: Bisping by Unanimous Decision.
Thiago Silva vs Houston "The Assassin" Alexander
By contrast to the main event, this fight will likely be one of the most exciting and explosive fights of all of 2007 - and that is saying a lot - but it will likely be over extremely quickly.UFC fans are quickly becoming familiar with Alexander, who has racked up back-to-back first-round knockouts over Keith Jardine and Alessio Sakara, but Silva is still largely unknown. Silva's first UFC fight, against James Irvin, was cut short when Irvin suffered a knee injury early in the first round. His next appearance, at UFC 75, saw Silva defeat Tomasz Drwal by knock out late in the second round.
Although Alexander has yet to display much of anything in terms of his overall MMA skills, aside from the fact that he has power in his hands and knees, he could very well be the favourite coming into this fight. However, Silva is an extremely dangerous fighter and has tremendous striking himself. Alexander got rocked by Jardine seconds into their fight before he recovered and won. If Silva rocks Alexander early, don't expect Silva to let up. Prediction: Silva by KO in round one.
Joe "El Dirte" Doerksen vs Ed "Short Fuse" Herman
Doerksen was a late replacement for the injured David Terrell in this fight, and is coming off of a loss in the WEC to Paulo Filho - the #2 ranked middleweight in the world - in a WEC Middleweight title fight. He will be looking to make an impact in his return to the UFC.Herman has rebounded with two wins after losing his first two UFC fights. He will also be looking to make an impact in this fight, as he wants to remain a contender in the division. This fight will likely be a close one, but it probably won't go the distance. Herman is underrated as an overall fighter, but Doerksen has a world of experience with nearly 50 fights. Prediction: Doerksen by Submission in round two.
Ryo "The Piranha" Chonan vs Karo "The Heat" Parisyan
It is unfortunate that most UFC fans will not know who Chonan is, but he holds a spectacular victory over current UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva - by flying scissor heel hook - from PRIDE Shockwave 2004. However, in this fight, Chonan is competing at welterweight against one of the most accomplished judo fighters in UFC history.In his career, Chonan has been susceptible to knockouts, but he defends throws and submissions well. As such, this will be no easy task for Parisyan, who is looking to re-establish himself as a top contender at 170. Chonan could pull off another crazy submission, or possibly land a solid shot and knock Parisyan down long enough for a TKO victory, but Parisyan's chin is excellent and he is a master of escaping submissions and obtaining dominant position, so, while Chonan having success in the UFC could set up a rematch at 185 with Anderson Silva, Parisyan will likely be able to win this battle sometime in the second round. Prediction: Parisyan by Submission in round two.
Frankie "The Answer" Edgar vs Spencer "The King" Fisher
This is an extremely difficult fight to call. Edgar is undefeated and is the only man to hold a victory over Tyson Griffin. Fisher is an extremely talented veteran who has excellent striking, excellent submissions and excellent submission defence.This fight will be decided solely on where it takes place. If it remains on the feet, even though Edgar's striking is also very good, Fisher will likely knock Edgar out. If the fight goes to the ground, Edgar is a tactician. Edgar has very little chance of defeating Fisher in the standup, but Fisher could definitely submit Edgar if the fight does go to the ground, even though Edgar is the better of the two at the ground game.
Fisher will likely give Edgar his first loss in this fight, but it could really go either way. If the Edgar/Griffin and Fisher/Stout II fights were any indication, this battle should be a classic. Prediction: Fisher by Submission in round two.
Chris "Lights Out" Lytle vs Thiago "Pitbull" Alves
Despite having over 50 fights' worth of experience, Lytle has had very little success in the UFC. However, he defeated Jason Gilliam in his last fight with one of the most technical double-submissions ever displayed in the UFC, and a victory over Alves would definitely get his career back on-track.Alves, though, has had tremendous success in the UFC, going 5-2 with both losses to top competition (Spencer Fisher and Jon Fitch). He is, as his name suggests, an aggressive fighter who is also well-rounded. Although Lytle looked extremely impressive in his last fight, Alves is determined to get back into the top of the welterweight division and he will likely take this fight by submission or decision. Prediction: Alves by Unanimous Decision.
Jason Reinhardt vs Joe "J-Lau" Lauzon
Although Reinhardt is 38, and Lauzon is just 23, Reinhardt (18-0) has only one more fight than Lauzon does (14-3). This is Reinhardt's UFC debut, but he is not a fighter to be taken lightly.Lauzon is most famous for his TKO victory over former UFC Lightweight Champion Jens Pulver, and also for his time on The Ultimate Fighter 5 reality show. He is a very aggressive fighter whose style is nothing like his meek demeanour away from the cage. Although Reinhardt is undefeated, a number of fighters making their UFC debuts this year have struggled, and this might be another instance of that. Prediction: Lauzon by TKO in round one.
Luke "Lil' Hulk" Caudillo vs Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio
Aurelio's UFC debut against Clay Guida did not go his way, but it was rumoured that Aurelio's hand was broken during the fight, which explained his extreme lack of striking. Despite the loss, he is still one of only three fighters - excluding the overturned Diaz/Gomi fight from PRIDE 33 - to ever defeat #1 lightweight Takanori Gomi.Caudillo's only UFC fight was a loss to Nate Mohr in June. He is a well-rounded fighter, but everything he does, Aurelio does better. Aurelio is one of the most skilled Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighters in the world at 155, and he will likely do everything he can to redeem himself after the loss to Guida. Prediction: Aurelio by Submission in round one.
"The Japanese Sensation" Akihiro Gono vs Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory
Gono is one of the most legendary mixed martial artists in the world, but this will be his UFC debut. Always a showman, with a great sense of humour, Gono will undoubtedly look to put on a great performance for the UFC fans.McCrory, despite being a self-proclaimed geek, is a vicious animal when he steps into battle. He is undefeated, at 10-0, and his highlight reel is brutal beating after brutal beating, often against fighters who are considerably stronger than he is. He will have a huge height and reach advantage over Gono, and will certainly push forward throughout the fight.
This fight is also difficult to call, as Gono's wealth of experience and extremely skilled defence in any situation will make it difficult for McCrory to impose his will, as he has done in his past fights. However, McCrory's aggressive nature may take Gono off-guard, leaving an opening for a McCrory TKO victory. A very difficult prediction, indeed. Prediction: Gono by Unanimous Decision.
UFC 78 takes place this Saturday night.
