UFC 76: "Knockout" Predictions
by Robert Sargent & Daniel Regan
UFC 76 takes place tomorrow night and features a number of great fights. In main card action, former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell looks to get back on the winning track when he faces "The Dean of Mean" Keith Jardine, while 2005 PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix Champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua makes his UFC debut against Forrest Griffin.
MMARising.com breaks down the solid card, with full predictions and commentary for each of the night's fights.
Beginning with the main event, surely to be a striking battle from start to finish, Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell looks to rebound after his loss to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, as he takes on "The Dean of Mean" Keith Jardine.
Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell vs "The Dean of Mean" Keith Jardine
Rob: The Chuck Liddell vs Keith Jardine fight is almost certainly going to end with a KO/TKO finish, likely in the first or second round, and I would be surprised if Liddell didn't come out on top in this one. If he does, I hope he fights Wanderlei Silva in December.Daniel: The problem with this fight is that's it terribly one-sided. We've got an amazingly powerful striker against an average fighter. In his last fight, Jardine got knocked out by a sloppy and largely unknown fighter. What's he going to do versus the ever-dangerous Iceman? I suspect an easy KO before the end of the first round. Jardine may have potential, but he's far from it at the moment. Pick: Liddell
Rob: The main reason why I want to see Liddell win this fight is for the showdown with Wanderlei that SHOULD follow. I would be rather upset if they put Liddell into a title fight right away if he beats Jardine. Assuming Shogun gets past Forrest, Shogun is more than deserving of the first title shot against Rampage, and Chuck and Wanderlei should fight to determine the next contender after that. Chuck and Wanderlei are both top stars in the Light Heavyweight division, but both of them need to prove themselves with a major victory to get back into the title hunt. A victory over Jardine does not qualify Liddell for such a title fight. Pick: Liddell
Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs Forrest Griffin
Daniel: Which leads us to the real main event of the evening, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua versus Forrest Griffin. One thing has to be said. Forrest Griffin deserves credit for taking the initiative and wanting to fight the most dangerous fighter at 205lbs. If he can somehow beat Shogun, it'll be the greatest upset in the history of the sport and would essentially validate TUF fighters in the eyes of the more hardcore fans.Rob: I agree. This is clearly the biggest fight in Forrest's career. His battle with Stephan Bonnar to determine the winner of the TUF finale may have put him on the map, but a victory over Shogun would vault Forrest into title contention, if not firmly entrench him in the Top 10 fighters at 205. However, as you said, it would be a huge upset, and a Shogun victory would set up many more high-profile fights than a Forrest victory would. Shogun holds a punishing victory over Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, the current Light Heavyweight Champion, and fights like Shogun vs Rampage II or Shogun vs Liddell would be huge draws for the UFC.
Daniel: While Forrest Griffin may deserve some respect, we've got to look at it realistically. He's a sloppy striker with weak power in his hands. His ground game is suspect and he tends to lose his head in his fights. While his last fight versus Ramirez showed a confident fighter who was more reserved, it didn't show a top 10 fighter. As Griffin said, he needs to watch out for punches, kicks, and knees. The only problem is he will only be a spectator. Pick: Shogun
Rob: I think that Shogun likely takes this fight, probably by TKO from knees or a kick, sometime late in the first round. Forrest may survive into the second, or even third round, but I think that Shogun will be out to make a statement for the North American fans, and I expect some of his typical, flashy stuff. Capoeira kicks and Thai knees are in Forrest's immediate future. Pick: Shogun
Daniel: My only hope is that Shogun remembers not to finish it with a flying stomp, even though I'm sure it'd make for one helluva good ending to what should be a great fight.
Rob: "Your winner by Disqualification due to illegal head stomp knockout, Forrest Griffin."
Jon Fitch vs Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez
Daniel: This fight could go either way. While Sanchez's last fight with Koscheck was rather disappointing, I still don't believe he's a poor fighter. This match against Fitch is a perfect test for him. This could also be a great opportunity for Fitch, considering very few casual fans are familiar with him. While I have no clue what will stop this fight, I see Fitch surprising a lot of people and making a name for himself in the Welterweight division. Pick: FitchRob: I see Diego coming out aggressively in this fight, to prove that his last fight was a fluke, but Fitch is a very smart fighter with a lot of experience. Diego may get Fitch in trouble, particularly early on, but I see Fitch weathering the storm and finishing Diego by submission - probably a choke - sometime in the second round. This fight may go to a decision, but I think it will end early. Either way, I'm picking Fitch to win this fight. Pick: Fitch
Daniel: You know, these predictions would be more interesting if we disagreed more! Let's hope Fitch doesn't let us down. Either way, he's got his work cut out for him.
Kazuhiro Nakamura vs Ryoto "Lyoto" Machida
Rob: Well, if differing opinions make things interesting, I think the next fight will do the trick. While Lyoto Machida is an amazing fighter, holding notable wins over former UFC Champions Rich Franklin and BJ Penn, Kazuhiro Nakamura is going to push Machida as few people have before. Although Nakamura suffered some losses in Pride, most of those losses were to top stars in the company. I see him - as well as Shogun in the previous fight - ending this jinx of Pride fighters coming into the UFC and struggling, and I'm picking Nakamura as the victor by decision. Pick: NakamuraDaniel: This is perhaps the hardest fight to predict for me. I love Lyoto Machida. His ability to evade attacks is unparalleled in the ring or cage. While he can sometimes put on lackluster shows, he rarely ever takes any damage. However, he's fighting Nakamura, someone who always puts on an amazing show. Nakamura has a few quality wins over the likes of Kevin Randleman, Igor Vovchanchyn, and Yuki Kondo, but all other top competition he has fought has defeated him. However, when facing people like Wanderlei Silva, Dan Henderson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Josh Barnett, and Shogun, it's hard to discredit him for the losses. Sadly, though, while this could easily be the best fight of the night (or year), it could also become very boring. I'm hoping it'll be the fight I'm dreaming for. However, with Lyoto's incredible ability to evade damage, I don't see Nakamura's judo coming in to play. I expect a unanimous decision win for Machida. Pick: Machida
Thiago Tavares vs Tyson Griffin
Rob: The next fight on the card is pretty clear-cut for me. Thiago Tavares is an amazing fighter, who is thus far undefeated, and Tyson Griffin has been in some wars in the UFC with Clay Guida and Frank Edgar. However, Griffin is coming off of a controversial split decision victory over Guida, whereas Tavares's last fight was a submission victory over a very tough opponent, in Jason Black. To me, Tavares is a much more well-rounded fighter, and I see him taking this fight to the ground early. I believe Tavares wins this fight with a technical submission - triangle, Kata Gatame, perhaps an Anaconda Choke - late in the first or early in the second round. Pick: TavaresDaniel: Griffin has the ablity to make this a very entertaining fight. However, don't expect him to pull out the win. What some call controversial, I call stolen, and that's the only thing you can say about his win over Guida. However, the two did put on probably the most exciting fight of 2007. Tavares is destined for the top 10. Griffin has his work cut out for him before he makes it in there. Tavares by 2nd round submission, Rear Naked. Pick: Tavares
Undercard Fights
Anthony Johnson Vs. Rich Clementi, Scott Junk Vs. Christian Wellisch, Diego Saraiva Vs. Jeremy Stephens, Michihiro Omigawa Vs. Matt Wiman.Daniel: Clementi by wealth of experience, Wellisch, Stephens, Wiman.
Rob: I'm picking Johnson for an upset, Wellisch, Omigawa and Saraiva for another upset of sorts. Not overly confident on the Saraiva pick. We'll see.
UFC 76 takes place tomorrow night and airs live on pay-per-view.
