Rob
09-02-2007, 11:59 PM
In the future, prediction threads like this one will be posted on the front page and main content area, but since the front pages are still in stages of completion, I will use this forum for the time being. For future events (including UFC 75, though please use this thread), feel free to share your own predictions for how you feel fights will end.
From top to bottom:
1) Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs Dan "Hollywood"/"Dangerous" Henderson (Unified Light Heavyweight Championship bout):
First off, I believe that this fight is likely to go to a decision. Rampage has essentially zero submission skills, but he is also extremely difficult to submit, himself. He has only been submitted one time in his career, in his amazing Pride debut against Sakuraba after powerbombing Sakuraba nearly ten times, and he's unlikely to get caught in anything here. Both fighters have knockout power in their hands, but both also have solid chins.
Rampage has been TKO'd twice - once in the first fight against Wanderlei Silva and once in his fight against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (both as a result of repeated knees from Thai clinch position, which is Rampage's only major weakness) - and KO'd one time in the second fight against Wanderlei (also via knee strikes), but he is able to take a tremendous amount of punishment before going down.
Dan Henderson has never been knocked out in his career. His main weakness in his fights over the past couple of years, which may also plague Rampage, has been his conditioning. This was particularly evident in his fights against Yuki Kondo and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in Pride. If this fight goes the distance of 25 minutes, I suspect that both fighters will be gassed, but I believe that, with Rampage's new camp and focus on training, it will be Dan who is the worse for wear by the end.
Since Dan's main power is in single shots with his right hand, and Rampage hs demonstrated that he can absorb a lot of punishment, I do not see Dan winning by KO/TKO. However, I do not see Rampage knocking Dan out, either.
Prediction: Quinton "Rampage" Jackson wins by Decision (either Split or Unanimous) to become Unified Light Heavyweight Champion.
2) Matt "The Hammer" Hamill vs Michael "The Count" Bisping:
I do not see this fight going the distance unless Matt can repeatedly take Bisping down and hold him there. Bisping showed that he can get out of tricky situations in his fight against Elvis Sinosic, and I do not believe that Matt is anywhere near the calibre of fighter that Elvis is. Don't let Elvis's record, compared to Matt's, fool you. Matt has only been in MMA for a short time, and is still primarily a wrestler, so he's relatively one-dimensional. In my opinion, Bisping has far less to worry about in this fight than he did in the fight against Elvis Sinosic.
With the added training that Bisping has recently put in with Quinton Jackson, among other notables, I honestly cannot see how Matt can win this fight unless he somehow manages to submit Bisping after getting a takedown. Unless that happens, this is Bisping's fight to lose.
Prediction: Michael "The Count" Bisping by TKO in the first or early second round.
3) Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipović vs Cheick Kongo:
I don't see this fight lasting long. It may go into the second round, but I do not think that it will go beyond that.
I would be very surprised to see any takedown or submission attempts in this fight, as both fighters are very good strikers and, especially in Cro Cop's case, do not like to take the fight to the ground. Both fighters have knockout power, though I would give a fairly significant edge in striking to Cro Cop, simply because he can knock people out with a variety of kicks and punches.
If this fight does not end by KO/TKO - and I would be very surprised if it didn't - then it will go to a Unanimous Decision, likely for Cro Cop. However, I just cannot see that happening, especially with Cro Cop wanting to redeem himself after his last fight. Rumour is that Cro Cop's camp is pushing for a rematch with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (they first fought in Pride in 2003, with Cro Cop dominating the first round before being submitted early into the second) if Cro Cop wins this fight. That would be interesting.
Prediction: Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipović by some sort of spectacular KO late in the first round or early into the second.
4) "The Irish Hand Grenade" Marcus Davis vs "Relentless" Paul Taylor:
I really have no idea how this fight is going to end, but I'm confident that Marcus Davis will emerge as the winner.
Paul Taylor is coming off of a TKO victory in his last fight at UFC 70, but I think that he's probably going to be overmatched against Marcus Davis. Whether Marcus uses his submission skills, or goes for another knock out like in his last fight, I believe that he's going to win this, regardless.
Unless Paul Taylor can catch Marcus with a random punch, or manage to drag the fight out to a decision, I think that this is Marcus's fight to win or lose.
Prediction: "The Irish Hand Grenade" Marcus Davis by TKO sometime in the first or second round.
5) Houston "The Assassin" Alexander vs Alessio "Legionarius" Sakara:
I would be shocked if this fight made it out of the first round.
Both are good strikers, with Houston Alexander obviously having an extremely aggressive style - see: Keith Jardine KO in 48 seconds - and it's likely going to come down to which fighter hits the other one with a solid punch first. Since Houston seems to be able to throw about five punches per second, I'm pretty sure that he's going to get off that first punch.
Prediction: Houston "The Assassin" Alexander by KO/TKO early in the first round.
The Undercard (will be kept fairly brief, due to the length of this post, but all of these prediction threads/posts will be significant in length in order to educate MMA fans who are very new to the sport):
6) Gleison Tibau vs Terry Etim:
I've only seen one fight from each of these fighters, and both of them have potential, but I was extremely impressed with Terry Etim's performance at UFC 70. If Gleison can get Terry down and work for a submission, he may be able to win this, but I believe that Terry Etim will win this fight and put on another impressive display.
Prediction: Terry Etim by Submission in the second round.
7) Tomasz "Travolta" Drwal vs Thiago Silva:
I've never seen either of these guys fight - Silva's UFC appearance against James Irvin doesn't really count, since Irvin injured himself early in the fight and could not continue - but I've heard a lot of hype about Silva.
Drwal comes from the Pawel Nastula MMA camp in Poland. For anyone not familiar with Nastula from his days in Pride, he's a Judo legend and undoubtedly has his students incorporating Judo throws and takedowns into their MMA repertoire. Because of this, I see Silva getting thrown around a bit, but I believe that Silva will wind up winning. Since I'm unfamiliar with these fighters, for the most part, I'm going to say that this is going to go to a decision. It may very well not, though.
Prediction: Thiago Silva by Unanimous Decision.
8) Naoyuki Kotani vs Dennis Siver:
I don't know a tremendous amount about these two fighters, either, but I am more confident in my choice for this fight. Both of these fighters are 0-1 in the UFC, but both have respectable records overall, especially Kotani.
Kotani's kickboxing teacher, Riki Onodera, is the man who trained Ryo Chonan, and Ryo Chonan outstruck - and then submitted with one of the greatest submissions ever (flying scissor heel hook) - the current UFC Middleweight Champion, Anderson Silva, when they fought in Pride in 2004, so Kotani's strikes will be very good. He is also well-versed in submissions.
Prediction: Naoyuki Kotani by Submission in the first or early second round.
9) Anthony "The Crush" Torres vs Jess "The Joker" Liaudin:
Barring some sort of bizarre occurrence, this fight should be dominated by Liaudin. Although his overall record (11-8) isn't the greatest, he won his debut fight in the UFC over Dennis Siver (who is fighting above) in convincing fashion. By contrast, Torres only has 6 fights, hasn't fought in the UFC in over a year and definitely does not have the aggression that is typically required to succeed in the UFC. If Anthony Torres wins this fight, I'll be very surprised. I'm not even sure if he'll survive the first round. Who knows, though.
Prediction: Jess "The Joker" Liaudin by Submission in the first round.
We'll see how these picks hold up this coming Saturday.
Anyone wishing to post their own predictions for the fights is more than welcome to do so. Please keep the discussion to this thread. You do not need to make any extensive descriptions of your choices if you do not want to. As I said, I will be writing these predictions in-depthly in order to help newer MMA fans to better understand some of the fighters and matchups.
Thanks.
From top to bottom:
1) Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs Dan "Hollywood"/"Dangerous" Henderson (Unified Light Heavyweight Championship bout):
First off, I believe that this fight is likely to go to a decision. Rampage has essentially zero submission skills, but he is also extremely difficult to submit, himself. He has only been submitted one time in his career, in his amazing Pride debut against Sakuraba after powerbombing Sakuraba nearly ten times, and he's unlikely to get caught in anything here. Both fighters have knockout power in their hands, but both also have solid chins.
Rampage has been TKO'd twice - once in the first fight against Wanderlei Silva and once in his fight against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (both as a result of repeated knees from Thai clinch position, which is Rampage's only major weakness) - and KO'd one time in the second fight against Wanderlei (also via knee strikes), but he is able to take a tremendous amount of punishment before going down.
Dan Henderson has never been knocked out in his career. His main weakness in his fights over the past couple of years, which may also plague Rampage, has been his conditioning. This was particularly evident in his fights against Yuki Kondo and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in Pride. If this fight goes the distance of 25 minutes, I suspect that both fighters will be gassed, but I believe that, with Rampage's new camp and focus on training, it will be Dan who is the worse for wear by the end.
Since Dan's main power is in single shots with his right hand, and Rampage hs demonstrated that he can absorb a lot of punishment, I do not see Dan winning by KO/TKO. However, I do not see Rampage knocking Dan out, either.
Prediction: Quinton "Rampage" Jackson wins by Decision (either Split or Unanimous) to become Unified Light Heavyweight Champion.
2) Matt "The Hammer" Hamill vs Michael "The Count" Bisping:
I do not see this fight going the distance unless Matt can repeatedly take Bisping down and hold him there. Bisping showed that he can get out of tricky situations in his fight against Elvis Sinosic, and I do not believe that Matt is anywhere near the calibre of fighter that Elvis is. Don't let Elvis's record, compared to Matt's, fool you. Matt has only been in MMA for a short time, and is still primarily a wrestler, so he's relatively one-dimensional. In my opinion, Bisping has far less to worry about in this fight than he did in the fight against Elvis Sinosic.
With the added training that Bisping has recently put in with Quinton Jackson, among other notables, I honestly cannot see how Matt can win this fight unless he somehow manages to submit Bisping after getting a takedown. Unless that happens, this is Bisping's fight to lose.
Prediction: Michael "The Count" Bisping by TKO in the first or early second round.
3) Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipović vs Cheick Kongo:
I don't see this fight lasting long. It may go into the second round, but I do not think that it will go beyond that.
I would be very surprised to see any takedown or submission attempts in this fight, as both fighters are very good strikers and, especially in Cro Cop's case, do not like to take the fight to the ground. Both fighters have knockout power, though I would give a fairly significant edge in striking to Cro Cop, simply because he can knock people out with a variety of kicks and punches.
If this fight does not end by KO/TKO - and I would be very surprised if it didn't - then it will go to a Unanimous Decision, likely for Cro Cop. However, I just cannot see that happening, especially with Cro Cop wanting to redeem himself after his last fight. Rumour is that Cro Cop's camp is pushing for a rematch with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (they first fought in Pride in 2003, with Cro Cop dominating the first round before being submitted early into the second) if Cro Cop wins this fight. That would be interesting.
Prediction: Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipović by some sort of spectacular KO late in the first round or early into the second.
4) "The Irish Hand Grenade" Marcus Davis vs "Relentless" Paul Taylor:
I really have no idea how this fight is going to end, but I'm confident that Marcus Davis will emerge as the winner.
Paul Taylor is coming off of a TKO victory in his last fight at UFC 70, but I think that he's probably going to be overmatched against Marcus Davis. Whether Marcus uses his submission skills, or goes for another knock out like in his last fight, I believe that he's going to win this, regardless.
Unless Paul Taylor can catch Marcus with a random punch, or manage to drag the fight out to a decision, I think that this is Marcus's fight to win or lose.
Prediction: "The Irish Hand Grenade" Marcus Davis by TKO sometime in the first or second round.
5) Houston "The Assassin" Alexander vs Alessio "Legionarius" Sakara:
I would be shocked if this fight made it out of the first round.
Both are good strikers, with Houston Alexander obviously having an extremely aggressive style - see: Keith Jardine KO in 48 seconds - and it's likely going to come down to which fighter hits the other one with a solid punch first. Since Houston seems to be able to throw about five punches per second, I'm pretty sure that he's going to get off that first punch.
Prediction: Houston "The Assassin" Alexander by KO/TKO early in the first round.
The Undercard (will be kept fairly brief, due to the length of this post, but all of these prediction threads/posts will be significant in length in order to educate MMA fans who are very new to the sport):
6) Gleison Tibau vs Terry Etim:
I've only seen one fight from each of these fighters, and both of them have potential, but I was extremely impressed with Terry Etim's performance at UFC 70. If Gleison can get Terry down and work for a submission, he may be able to win this, but I believe that Terry Etim will win this fight and put on another impressive display.
Prediction: Terry Etim by Submission in the second round.
7) Tomasz "Travolta" Drwal vs Thiago Silva:
I've never seen either of these guys fight - Silva's UFC appearance against James Irvin doesn't really count, since Irvin injured himself early in the fight and could not continue - but I've heard a lot of hype about Silva.
Drwal comes from the Pawel Nastula MMA camp in Poland. For anyone not familiar with Nastula from his days in Pride, he's a Judo legend and undoubtedly has his students incorporating Judo throws and takedowns into their MMA repertoire. Because of this, I see Silva getting thrown around a bit, but I believe that Silva will wind up winning. Since I'm unfamiliar with these fighters, for the most part, I'm going to say that this is going to go to a decision. It may very well not, though.
Prediction: Thiago Silva by Unanimous Decision.
8) Naoyuki Kotani vs Dennis Siver:
I don't know a tremendous amount about these two fighters, either, but I am more confident in my choice for this fight. Both of these fighters are 0-1 in the UFC, but both have respectable records overall, especially Kotani.
Kotani's kickboxing teacher, Riki Onodera, is the man who trained Ryo Chonan, and Ryo Chonan outstruck - and then submitted with one of the greatest submissions ever (flying scissor heel hook) - the current UFC Middleweight Champion, Anderson Silva, when they fought in Pride in 2004, so Kotani's strikes will be very good. He is also well-versed in submissions.
Prediction: Naoyuki Kotani by Submission in the first or early second round.
9) Anthony "The Crush" Torres vs Jess "The Joker" Liaudin:
Barring some sort of bizarre occurrence, this fight should be dominated by Liaudin. Although his overall record (11-8) isn't the greatest, he won his debut fight in the UFC over Dennis Siver (who is fighting above) in convincing fashion. By contrast, Torres only has 6 fights, hasn't fought in the UFC in over a year and definitely does not have the aggression that is typically required to succeed in the UFC. If Anthony Torres wins this fight, I'll be very surprised. I'm not even sure if he'll survive the first round. Who knows, though.
Prediction: Jess "The Joker" Liaudin by Submission in the first round.
We'll see how these picks hold up this coming Saturday.
Anyone wishing to post their own predictions for the fights is more than welcome to do so. Please keep the discussion to this thread. You do not need to make any extensive descriptions of your choices if you do not want to. As I said, I will be writing these predictions in-depthly in order to help newer MMA fans to better understand some of the fighters and matchups.
Thanks.